Death Panels Next? FDA Approves A.I. Model That Predicts Your Chance Of 'Sudden Expiration'

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved the very first artificial intelligence (AI) computer that monitors a patient’s vitals to help forecast sudden death up to six hours before the grim reaper shows up.

Excel Medical, a medical device data company in Florida, developed the deep learning algorithm called WAVE Clinical Platform for the eradication of unexpected hospital deaths.

 

WAVE automatically calculates the risk of the patient through subtle changes in vitals, which provides hospital staff with critical information of when the patient is expected to kick the bucket. The algorithm monitors the patient on a continuous basis, a task that is very challenging for hospitals, as the demographic crisis strains the U.S. healthcare system.

Stephen McBride of Mauldin Economics describes the situation:

Few investors understand the magnitude of the looming demographic crisis and its ramifications. The first Baby Boomers turned 70 last year. At the same time, the US fertility rate is at its lowest point since records began in 1909. This disastrous combination means by 2030, those aged 65 and older will make up over 20% of the population.

 

In realtime, on top of the patient’s vitals, the algorithm also factors in digital medical records, past medical history, family history, medications, age, and vital signs. Below is an example of the alert system interface.

 

Speaking to Digital Trends, ExcelMedical’s Chief Strategy Officer Mary Baum said, “We do not have enough physicians or nurses, and we have an aging population who are sicker and who need more resources and services.”

According to IFL Science,

It has also just become the first AI platform of its kind to be cleared by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). This decision was based on a series of studies at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center that showed the AI platform could prevent unexpected deaths in hospitals. Another more recent study, using similar technology by Stanford University, outlined on the preprint server arXiv, explains how a deep-learning algorithm can correctly predict an otherwise-unexpected death in 90 percent of cases.

The University of Pittsburgh Medical Center (UPMC) administered phase 1, 2, and three of the clinical trials for the AI computer. According to the clinical, UPMC’s control cohort had six unexpected deaths, while the AI trail cohort had zero.

The WAVE platform incorporates an algorithm called the Visensia Safety Index (VSI), developed by Oxford University. Excel licenses the algorithm, which was approved for use in 2011. The new clearance from the FDA, granted earlier this month, is for the algorithm’s use in tandem with Excel Medical’s platform.

Here is the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center (UPMC) decision tree for hospital staff members when an AI alert of a patient is triggered.

 

“Everything we do as an organization aligns toward and supports the goal of eradicating unexpected deaths in hospitals,” says Lance Burton, General Manager of Excel Medical. “People may say zero unexpected deaths is unattainable. We say anything other than zero is unconscionable.”

To sum up, AI’s gift to humanity is the knowledge of when you supposed to die six hours before. As for the baby boomer generation, what would you do in your last six hours? Further, what happens when the technology progresses to 12-hours, and or even days in advance of your death. How will the human psyche process such knowledge?

How long before the same A.I. can predict your sudden death a few years out? ...and decide whether you're worth keeping around?

Comments

Stuck on Zero NoDebt Fri, 01/26/2018 - 13:53 Permalink

Software like this has been around for thirty years. It was originally used to determine whether a patient required the ICU or whether it was a waste of time and money. Death for 80+ females often consists of progressive organ failure which is essentially unstoppable but via ordinary hospital care would require 60 days of ICU care and a $250K bill. This is unkind to the patient and family and society. A software tool allows physicians to present the case for letting the patient go home and expire with family in familiar surroundings.

In reply to by NoDebt

SafelyGraze Stuck on Zero Fri, 01/26/2018 - 14:09 Permalink

what we in the hospital adminstration do is, is that we couple the predictive software with various hypotheticals.

software is amazing. it can generate billions of hypotheticals.

for each hypothetical, we evaluate the predicated likelihood that the patient ("customer") will die in 3 hours, 6 hours, 12 hours, 24 hours, etc.

but more importantly, we cross reference these hypotheticals with (1) insurance payouts and (2) risk of lawsuits.

that we can design our delivery of care in order to return the optimum value to our shareholders.

hugs,
the medical intelligence complex

In reply to by Stuck on Zero

Theosebes Goodfellow NoDebt Fri, 01/26/2018 - 17:33 Permalink

~"Six hours is enough time to go home, get the gun and shoot that bitch of an ex-wife, don't you think?"~

Jesus No Debt, that turned dark rather suddenly. I wonder if the ex-wife get the six hour warning as well. There's a whole lot of Minority Report going on here.

Say, what if the AI wanted both of you dead? It, knowing your hate for her, tells you you're going to die in 6 hours. You go shoot her, (the AI knew you would), and then cap yourself. Done, two birds, one prediction. Health Insurance company/FDA Ai saves the gov and ins. co. a bundle.

Wait, now it's me who is dark. Shit, is this stuff contagious?

In reply to by NoDebt

Luc X. Ifer Decay is Constant Fri, 01/26/2018 - 13:53 Permalink

This article is 100% paranoia and fear porn. There is nothing wrong with the intention and the algorithm behind it, only retards without basic understanding of scientific method would scream in panic in front of what their tiny minds can't comprehend. Doctors and nurses also use a protocol to monitor the at risk patients this advanced machine - let's cal it for what it is, a dedicated medical robot just does it better than humans. This is evidence that the doom of AI is coming for the medicine practiced by humans. You should be glad of these advancements and not scared. Personally if the life of someone I care would be credited to this machine I'll be more than happy that the chances where on our side time and location wise.

In reply to by Decay is Constant

Boxed Merlot Decay is Constant Fri, 01/26/2018 - 19:27 Permalink

...What happens when the AI predicts your death...

This is the model that "life insurance" has used since they were allowed to foist their "product" on the consumer at large.

Personally, I would prefer to see the term "projected" intelligence used because there is no "actual" means to determine what a "free will" creature will "choose" when presented with a range of conduct that no open, (as opposed to 'closed'"), system can possibly account for when the factors entering into the realm of possibilities excludes the "Creator's" wild card of "Rebirth".

(This particular "choice" is, as is described in a prayer the Apostle Paul claims he offered to the Father of Christ, as one "being rooted and grounded in love, may be able to comprehend with all saints what is the breadth, and length, and depth, and height; and to know the love of Christ, which passes knowledge, that you might be filled with all the fullness of God."...) Eph. 3:17b-19

jmf.

In reply to by Decay is Constant

Expendable Container Yukon Cornholius Fri, 01/26/2018 - 15:13 Permalink

Clap trap. That's divide & conquer propaganda you have swallowed or are perpetuating purposely. Pay attention now - the baby boomer generation is the only generation that has found itself of necessity (and in empathy with love) supporting financially and morally its 2 other generations, their elderly and their young adult children, the older living longer and the younger either due to advanced education or unemployment in these trying times.

In reply to by Yukon Cornholius

techpriest GunnerySgtHartman Fri, 01/26/2018 - 15:08 Permalink

Given the outrageous cost of rooms right now, anything that can lower the bill to the deceased's estate, or to whichever family member co-signed for their costs.

My wife works in the NICU, and one of the more painful things is that most of the families there cannot afford the $10k a day care, and they have to make the decision over whether to continue care (which means risking a $100k bill and the baby dies from NEC a week later) or let the little baby die. In her case, she's doing research to up the odds of survival, but a few times, with current technology, they were able to sit down and have the difficult conversation with the parents that the baby will not make it, and that the hospital doesn't want to burden them with life-altering debt.

In reply to by GunnerySgtHartman

Expendable Container techpriest Fri, 01/26/2018 - 15:19 Permalink

That's a slippery slope. Only God knows, and that's the truth. Doctors (and soon robots) have been proven wrong on many occasions. The big question is - why has the cabal created an unaffordable system. Its a scam and a ripoff and a depopulation strategy to boot. With all the treachery going on in all spheres (from wars to big pharma) some cynicism is healthy.

In reply to by techpriest

Kefeer Bastiat Fri, 01/26/2018 - 14:38 Permalink

FDA = Federal Death Administration

This is designed to limit the ability to sue doctors, hospitals, and insurance companies/providers - I'm pretty sure that is one part of it. 

The mistakes that are made, if openly known, would shock most people.  Most people could prevent most illness by not doing the things they already know are bad for their health, such as paying attention to what and how much they eat and exercising just three times a week for 20 minutes.  

The life insurance companies already make fortunes on males as they charge twice the rates; yet females are dying at nearly the same age now.  God help you if you use "nicotine" and your a male.

In reply to by Bastiat

khnum Fri, 01/26/2018 - 13:31 Permalink

Let me see the first thing AI wants to do is replicate the second is eliminate the competition whats this thing called HAL9000

Jolt Fri, 01/26/2018 - 13:32 Permalink

And if you are friends with Hillary Clinton, there is a special "certain death" blinking red light if you make her angry.

Hillarys Server Fri, 01/26/2018 - 13:33 Permalink

The A.I. device, which has requested to be called Der Fuhrer, has predicted the expiration of Jews, homosexuals and Jehovah's Witnesses and is coordinating closely with sister A.I. applications.

The device is mobile, no longer requires electricity and is powered by bratwurst, marzipan and PEZ.

There have been no technical glitches so far although the device is communicating only in German with an Austrian accent and is reported to have one undescended testicle.

Dr. Acula Fri, 01/26/2018 - 13:40 Permalink

Once it predicts your death, that's the greenlight to start harvesting your organs.

(You can't harvest organs from someone who has actually died.)