Is An XIV Short-Squeeze Sending The Dow Soaring?

Update 1510ET: Correlation may not be causation but seriously...

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Update 1450ET: Shortly after XIV re-opened and plunged, trigger circuit-breakers, we tweet-wondered if a short-squeeze was imminent...

Of course, XIV will close on Feb 20th at $4.22 - its termination value - but between then and now, who knows!

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After collapsing more than 90% overnight, the culprit - XIV, was halted and suffered a termination event this morning.

It has just re-opened, crashed, trigger volatility circuit-breakers, and is re-halted...

As it collapses back to its termination value at $4.22...


erkme73 quadraspleen Tue, 02/06/2018 - 14:13 Permalink

A bit OT, but I value ZH opinions... 

I'm preparing to sell my home in FL.  I've still got minor cosmetic repairs, and need to get all my belongings out.  I have a realtor  who is tentatively going to start listing it on 3/1.   But with indications of another 2006-7-ish market collapse, waiting a few extra weeks to list may be a terrible mistake.

In 2007, my neighbor listed his house for $311k.  He received one offer... and it was $309k.  The homeowner balked and said he was not in hurry - so he'd wait for more offers.  Months later, he sold for $160k.  

I wonder how long it will take for these gyrations and market forces to influence buyers' ability/interest to buy homes at asking price...

In reply to by quadraspleen

buzzsaw99 erkme73 Tue, 02/06/2018 - 14:18 Permalink

I have been watching the Florida real estate market from afar for ten years now.  A quarter of a million homes and condos for sale in that state and it has been that way forever.  List prices have come way up since 2009 but lots and lots of it just sits.  My advice: If you get a decent offer take it without a haggle.

In reply to by erkme73

Jim in MN erkme73 Tue, 02/06/2018 - 14:31 Permalink

Two comments.

1. On your original point, some US cities are highly connected to 'hot money' typically cash-only buyers....but not many.  So depending on where in Florida you are, most likely the global finance situation isn't an immediate concern.  Just those hyper ZIP codes (you know it if you're in one).  The key question in most of the US is interest rates.  If something leaks into the long bond market and rates jack north, pricing may take a knock-on hit pretty quickly.  A full percent increase in mortgage rates, at these low levels, is a huge change in monthly payments/affordability/qualification (though not on down payments fortunately).

2.  You can list before you're 100% ready.  The date of possession is negotiable.  You just want it looking nice for showings.  Those can be held off, briefly, if you want to get it out there and get eyeballs. 

Good Luck

In reply to by erkme73

Mr_Potatohead erkme73 Tue, 02/06/2018 - 15:13 Permalink

" I wonder how long it will take "

So do many other people.  This is like trying to guess which snowflake causes the avalanche.  You have to be totally blind not to see the set-up, but it's nearly impossible to get the timing right.  Good luck.  My brother is trying to do something similar.  I've warned him for a few years to get out before things got ugly.  I hope both of you have enough time.

In reply to by erkme73

Non Merger erkme73 Tue, 02/06/2018 - 15:27 Permalink

Sold my old house recently.  I wanted to sell as is for a minor discount (didn't want to fuck with it).  Some trusted advisers suggested listing as-is and listing in ad things to be done, with price inflated to cover work.  I listed as is, with description of work to be done in ad.  Had a full price offer on the first day. 


Moral of story: typical buyers are lazy and don't want to do anything.  So, burn the candle at both ends and GTFO.

In reply to by erkme73

eclectic syncretist erkme73 Tue, 02/06/2018 - 15:32 Permalink

IMHO you could list it now and speed up your repairs if you're truly concerned and it's keeping you up at night. People actually like looking at a house while it is being renovated/fixed up/repaired/painted ect; it might even help the sale. Looks like banks are sitting on a lot of Florida real estate, and it's due to come back to earth sometime. You most likely have plenty of time, but it always feels good to get out right at the top if you're lucky enough to pull it off. Good luck and best wishes.

In reply to by erkme73

adr Tue, 02/06/2018 - 14:03 Permalink

So the instrument suffers a termination event, "nobody" can trade it because it is suspended. It reopens higher, only to crash back to its termination event value.

Something tells me some big players got screwed and wanted a do over. The Fed and the market makers were happy to oblige.

pods Tue, 02/06/2018 - 14:04 Permalink

When that thing opened they shoulda had Motley Crue's "Kickstart my Heart" playing.

They should just keep it closed to avoid anymore embarrassment.

"He's dead Jim."


NoDebt Tue, 02/06/2018 - 14:05 Permalink

NoDebt suffered a termination event this morning as a result of a massive heart attack due to chain-smoking, years of heavy drinking and just general meanness.  He was reopened this afternoon, crashed, triggered circuit breakers and was once again halted.

Until this article I thought I knew what the word "terminated" meant.  As in kaput, ended, dead.  Apparently not.

Still here, bitchez.