Buckle Up, It's About to Get Nasty

The bond market is doing the Fed’s job for it.

The reality is that the Fed is way behind the curve. True, the Fed is raising rates, but it is not raising them fast enough. The market was CLEARLY in a parabolic rise based on the fact financial conditions were too loose.

So what happened?

US Treasury bonds began to collapse, pushing yields higher, which in turn forced a re-pricing of risk assets (read: stocks collapsed).

Treasury Yields Rising

Remember, Treasury yields represent the “risk free” rate of return for the financial system, or the rate against which ALL risk assets (including stocks) are valued. So when these yields rise, it means risk is repriced DOWN.

Worse still, there is no sign that this is over yet. The S&P 500 was rejected by its former trendline yesterday (blue line) so the red line (2,550) is now in play.

The S&P 500's trendlines

Buckle up, it's about to get nasty.

The time to prepare your portfolio is NOW before things really get ugly.

On that note, we are putting together an Executive Summary outlining all of these issues as well as what’s in terms of Fed Policy when The Everything Bubble bursts.

It will be available exclusively to our clients. If you’d like to have a copy delivered to your inbox when it’s completed, you can join the wait-list here:


Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research


new game All Risk No Reward Fri, 02/09/2018 - 05:48 Permalink

welcoming the command economy! the ten will not be allowed to rise much further. if the fed looses control (unlikely), then it will really be doom and gloom situation. also unlikely or better put-not happening. qe bond buying on tap.the berspank perfected the notion. sure they say they are dumping 30 billion/month. that stated policy can and will change if need be. they may only need to talk the talk...

In reply to by All Risk No Reward

iadr Thu, 02/08/2018 - 13:53 Permalink

Re: Chart # 2- Because the f-cking world started March 2017?? Are you kidding me?

No context or big picture allowed in his sale pitches, eh? Makes you realize how tawdry a "speech" the writer is giving.

juggalo1 Thu, 02/08/2018 - 17:53 Permalink

I'm curious though.  Bonds are moving up based on inflation expectations.  But inflation is not here, only expectations.  Does it matter if the market really crashes?  So long as it doesn't become systemic and damage the financial system, inflation and wage gains will probably still be coming.  The market is not the economy after all.

NumbersUsa Thu, 02/08/2018 - 20:46 Permalink

Meanwhile the really important is being hid:

The Hate Crimes Prevention Bill” (jew supremacist written & backed-Adl). It recently passed the House, causing the Anti-Defamation League to rejoice. The ADL called the law "an essential and necessary step forward in the national effort to counter hate crimes" and urged passage by the Senate.

The jewish Adl also congratulated itself on taking a leadership role in promoting this legislation for the last 10 years. Other Jewish organizations have also been at the forefront of promoting “hate crime”legislation in the US and throughout the West.

It is inevitable that “Hate Crimes” will quickly come to include political speech,specifically on immigration.

Why are Jewish organizations so committed to this drive to abolish free speech?

Sadly, such an attitude is entirely within the Jewish tradition. Jewish groups have a long history of powerful controls over group members, ranging from regulations on economic behavior and charity toward other Jews, to regulating behavior likely to give rise to anti-Semitism or likely to damage other interests of the group.  

One aspect of this is that there was little history of free speech within traditional Jewish societies. Historically, Israel Shahak and Norton Mezvinsky point out, rabbis and other elite members of theAshkenazi and Sephardic communities had extraordinary power over other Jews— literally the power of life and death. And they were highly intolerant.

NumbersUsa Thu, 02/08/2018 - 20:54 Permalink

Two reasons explain the tremendous push by Jewish organizations for “Hate” laws. The first is, obviously, Israel. Zionists in America have succeeded in turning the U.S. into a client state of Israel and in commandeering huge quantities of American resources in its defense.

This is an astonishing achievement, far removed from any obvious interests of the majority population in the U.S. As the task gets more difficult, the temptation to repress grows.

theprofromdover Fri, 02/09/2018 - 04:15 Permalink

I think they've finally got up the nerve to let the bag collapse slowly.

I think the PPT is not diving in the way it used to, and they think they can control the descent by mostly backing off, plus of course with the usual baloney about fundamentals, some butterfly flapping its wings in Maccu Pichu or somewhere, and Trump tweets spooking the markets.

I can't believe Yellen had the nerve to do it, but maybe she did, cos she had packed her bags.

My guess is a couple of days a week at -4%, and a couple of phoney rallys in between, for the next 3 months.

Would probably only take us back to DJIA 20,000 where we were in Jan 17 for chrissakes.

Does anyone think these stocks are remotely close to true value? Even at 16k they are fat 'n fluffy.

pupton TheRideNeverEnds Fri, 02/09/2018 - 12:54 Permalink

He's right even less often than a stopped clock...but good for him for not giving up.  Keep doubling down Graham...the end is near!  Bwahahaha.  When the crash comes, nobody will give a shit that he called it every day for the last 10 years.  Sometimes it IS better to be a day late and not 10 years too early.  I mean, how is this dude still solvent??? It is clear he can't even draw a damned trendline on a chart without coloring over the lines...go drink a bucket of AIDS Graham.  hahahaha

In reply to by TheRideNeverEnds