Regulators Open Probe After Whistleblower Exposes "Rampant Manipulation Of VIX"

Update: In a quite shockingly fast reaction, WSJ reports that a U.S. regulator is looking into whether prices linked to the widely watched Cboe Volatility Index have been manipulated, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority is scrutinizing whether traders placed bets on S&P 500 options in order to influence prices for VIX futures, the people said.

Proving manipulation is difficult, lawyers and academics say. The regulator must prove that a person or firm had the ability to move prices and did so intentionally. In addition, the regulator must show that the person intended to create artificial prices, said Craig Pirrong, a professor of finance at The University of Houston who has written about futures manipulation.

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As we detailed earlier, we first exposed the "conspiracy fact" that VIX manipulation runs the entire market back in 2015 as the ubiquitous VIX-crushing algo-runs coincided with a non-stop shorting of VIX futures by a seemingly bottomless-pocketed player in the market... which happened to coincide with the arrival of Simon Potter as the head of The New York Fed's trading desk...

Probably just a coincidence, right?

Then, in May of last year we academic confirmation of the rigged nature the US equity market's volatility complex, when a scientific study found "systemic VIX auction settlement manipulation."

Two University of Texas at Austin finance professors found "large transient deviations in VIX prices" around the morning auction, "consistent with market manipulation."

​Griffin and Shams calculate that "the size of VIX futures with open interest at settlement is on average 5.7 times the size SPX options traded at settlement, and it is 7.3 times for VIX options that are in-the-money at settlement."

So if you are a trader who owns a lot of the market in VIX futures, you could push around a large dollar value of futures by trading a small dollar value in options. This is particularly true because the S&P option volume is divided among many strikes, and the illiquid deep out-of-the-money S&P 500 options have a big influence on the VIX: You can move the price of those options a lot with relatively small trades, and those price changes have a disproportionate effect on the VIX.

While this was immediately played down by CBOE, and the subject quickly disappeared from the headlines - because VIX was dropping incessantly and stocks were going up, up, up - until VIX flash-crashed rather awkwardly into the morning auction settlement in mid-December, bring the chatter of manipulation back to life...

Bloomberg data show that of the 10 biggest gaps between the VIX settlement value and its closing level the night before, five came in 2017, including December’s, which was the biggest discount in 11 years.

On monthly expirations, settlement occurred outside the VIX’s same-day trading range 42 percent of the time last year, the most since 2005. The average occurrence was 15 percent in the decade through 2016.

While a lot of innocent explanations exist, “really, it is a mystery,” said Pravit Chintawongvanich, the head of derivatives strategy for Macro Risk Advisors.

“Some people rightly get confused about why the settle is seemingly out of context with the market.”

It actually seems like VIX manipulation is an inside-joke, as Hennessy of IPS says in a market dominated by professionals, everyone plays at his own risk.

“Like any market it is susceptible to manipulation by large participants but I think that most VIX traders understand that,” he said.

“2017 saw many settlements that came in points away from the previous day’s close value, and at this point you have to understand the risk you are taking on if you choose to let your options/futures position go into settlement.”

But now, Bloomberg reports a whistleblower has come forward telling U.S. regulators that a scheme to manipulate the VIX costs investors hundreds of millions of dollars a month.

In a letter Monday (see below) that his client found a flaw that allows traders “with sophisticated algorithms to move the VIX up or down by simply posting quotes on S&P options and without needing to physically engage in any trading or deploying any capital.” Billions in purportedly ill-gotten profits have been scooped up by “unethical electronic option market makers,” according to the letter.

The client wasn’t identified by name. He’s held “senior positions at some of the largest investment firms in the world,” according to the letter written by Jason Zuckerman of Zuckerman Law, who has appeared on Washingtonian magazine’s list of top whistle-blower lawyers in the nation’s capital.

Crucially, according to the letter, the whistleblower blames this VIX manipulation as the driver of last week's volatility complex collapse:

“We contend that the liquidation of the VIX ETPs last week was not due solely to flaws in the design of these products, but instead was driven largely by a rampant manipulation of the VIX index,”

CBOE quickly responded with a denial:

“We take our regulatory responsibilities and the oversight of our markets very seriously,” 

“This letter is replete with inaccurate statements, misconceptions and factual errors, including a fundamental misunderstanding of the relationship between the VIX Index, VIX futures and volatility” exchange-traded products.

“As a result of these errors, we feel the conclusionary statements contained in this letter lack credibility.”

But, as we concluded previously, you don't even have to intervene over some long period to keep options prices up; you can just submit bids in the pre-opening auction once a month and move the settlement price for that month.

There is a sort of hierarchy of manipulability in markets. At the top is Libor manipulation: Trillions of dollars of derivatives settled based on Libor, but Libor was calculated by essentially asking banks "what should Libor be?" The banks didn't even have to do any trading in order to push the number around; manipulation was, in effect, costless. (Later, with the fines, it was costly.)

At the bottom is, like, manipulating the price of a stock by trading that stock. There are cases of it! It's a thing. But it is a dumb thing; it really shouldn't work. If you buy a stock, you will push the price up, sure. But to make any money you then have to sell the stock, which should push the price right back down.

But if you are going to manipulate a tradable market -- as opposed to a made-up one like Libor -- then VIX looks pretty tempting.

The product that you trade (S&P 500 options) is different from the product where you make your money (VIX futures and options), and the trading market is in the relevant sense smaller than the derivative market: You can move a lot of value in VIX products by trading a small amount of value, in a confined period of time, in the underlying market. So you can cheerfully lose money executing the manipulation -- trading the S&P options -- and make back more in the derivative.

The question is - why did the whistleblower come forward now - a week after the total and utter collapse of XIV and the short-VIX debacle?

Blame-scaping VIX manipulation for 'volocaust' but remaining silent during years of VIX-monkey-hammering sounds more like 'bad-losers' - no matter how much we believe in the manipulation of this 'tail' that inevitably wags the entire market 'dog'.

As a reminder, it is not just traders that are potentially "manipulating" VIX, The Fed's new chair Jay Powell admitted in January that they carry a short-volatility position. We wonder if they took the loss last week or unwound the position?

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Full Whistleblower Letter To Regulators:

Comments

Bryan Tue, 02/13/2018 - 08:56 Permalink

Gee, no kidding.  No one would have ever guessed anything was manipulated.  What a crazy thought.

Listen, if there's a loophole or any chance at gaming the system for your own benefit, someone will figure it out and exploit it. 

pods Delving Eye Tue, 02/13/2018 - 09:42 Permalink

So they are just saying that the VIX complex is just like the rest of the "markets"?

Every market is rigged. Rigged for the big boys.

Remember when Goldman sued that Russian guy about that stolen code?  They said that it could be used to manipulate things in an unfair way or some shit?  Guess who paid for that code to be written? Does ANYONE trust that Goldman was only going to use that code in a "fair" or lawful way?

Everything today is a fucking scam.  

pods

In reply to by Delving Eye

Thought Processor pods Tue, 02/13/2018 - 09:49 Permalink

 

Exactly.  It is sanctioned all the way up though.  That was an interesting case.  In order for them to pursue the case they had to basically admit that the system existed, which they did.  It essentially confirmed that firms are using a system of this nature to do what the system was designed for, ie; rigging markets.  It set a precedent.  An important one.

In reply to by pods

Hugh_Jorgan auricle Tue, 02/13/2018 - 10:18 Permalink

The worst part about stories like this is that the mechanisms are utterly foreign to most and the implications so dispicable and dire that people will happily shrug it off, with "huh?... the DOW is up 400 pts today... I must not understand this stuff very well" and just back to following the tail in from of them.

It's going to take the train wreck to open everyone's eyes. And, it will take another 9/11 to look like anything like a train wreck these days.

In reply to by auricle

nobodysfool pods Tue, 02/13/2018 - 13:07 Permalink

Yeah kinda reminds me of this fortuitous dialog from "Shooter":

 

Senator Charles F. Meachum: You got any plans after this? You have a rather unique skill set. I'd be interested in offering you a job.

Bob Lee Swagger: Work? For you?

Senator Charles F. Meachum: It's not really as bad as it seems. It's all gonna be done in any case. You might as well be on the side that gets you well paid for your efforts.

Nick Memphis: And what side are you on?

Senator Charles F. Meachum: There are no sides. There's no Sunnis and Shiites. There's no Democrats and Republicans. There's only HAVES and HAVE-NOTS.

Don't take the Red Pill....just go about your business, nothing to see here...have a nice life.

In reply to by pods

Antifaschistische Mtnrunnr Tue, 02/13/2018 - 09:25 Permalink

"But now, Bloomberg reports a whistleblower has come forward telling U.S. regulators that a scheme to manipulate the VIX costs investors hundreds of millions of dollars a month."

...so, are you also saying some VIP insider is making hundreds of millions of scamming the VIX trade?  Who would that be?

also, the article later says the whistleblower sounds like a sore loser. (so to speak)  SO WHAT!!  Most whistleblowers of all kinds are those who got shafted in some way.  That's how the truth often gets out.  Let's look for a few more!!

In reply to by Mtnrunnr

Justin Case Troy Ounce Tue, 02/13/2018 - 10:06 Permalink

Over $2 quadrillion per year in trades happen in just two Exchange Casinos–the CME Group, Inc. and ICE, Inc.

These private corporations run their casinos with high-speed computer programs that have high-jacked 80% of U.S. mortgages and 100% of the stocks, bonds, commodities and futures traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE:ICE) and the Chicago and New York Mercantile Exchanges and the many other exchanges owned by CME and ICE.

The computers that run these exchanges are private and are not subject to federal regulation, but are in fact considered “self-regulating organizations.”

The Federal Reserve System is supposed to monitor the exchanges, but the Federal Reserve is also a private corporation that is owned by the same shareholders who own ICE and CME as well as the other private corporations who get the lion’s share of military contracts also.

 

In reply to by Troy Ounce

shizzledizzle Tue, 02/13/2018 - 09:01 Permalink

Traders with sophisticated algorithms = NY fed desk

Today could be interesting... Will they have the balls to do it now that people know what to look for? If futures are any indicator I'm thinking not.