10-Year yield up 110%, is a peak in play?

Is the bond bull market of the past 30-years over? Are we seeing just the start of a trend higher in interest rates or are they about to blast off? This isn’t the million dollar question, its the “Trillion Dollar” question as U.S. Government debt continues to skyrocket.

Below takes a long-term look at the yield on the 10-year note (TNX) as well as a look at how large of an increase in rates have taken place over the past 84-weeks


The yield on the 10-year note is up 110% over the past 84-weeks, which is the largest yield rally in this short of a time period in a couple of decades. This sharp rally now has yields testing the top of a 25-year falling channel as well as at the top of its 5-year trading range at (2). Is the just the beginning in a rate rise of a short-term ending?

Below takes a peek at what hedgers are doing in the 10-year Treasury Note from Sentimentrader.com


Hedgers look to have a crowded trade in play at this time. Over the past 10-years when they were positioned like this, the 10-year note was more often closer to a short-term low than high. Will it be different this time?


With the U.S. Government debt now exceeding $20 Trillion, what the 10-year note does at the top of its 25-year rising channel, is very important friends!!!

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duo Sun, 02/18/2018 - 09:31 Permalink

If I could safely earn 4% on my savings, I'd trade that for my house being worth $100K less.  I'm sure first-time homebuyers wouldn't mind that either.

More than likely the next time savings accounts pay 4%, a loaf of bread will cost $20, on its way to $200.

new game XBroker1 Sun, 02/18/2018 - 12:14 Permalink

qualifiers of this statement: 4 percent, cost of rent for similar dwelling OR lifestyle change via leaving single family for condo or townhouse), inflation, wage and wage increases to offset inflation, age, savings, and most important: lifestyle desired.

okay, that said, 250 k equity at 4 percent. 10,000/year interest less tax as a subsidy towards renting and ditching the hassles of upkeep (assuming the landlord is doing the maintenance). ball parking the net subsidy/ month at 700/month, bring net rent to about 800/month on 1500/month dwelling. that said, the money is safe(lol) and assuming one is still working, adding to this savings until retirement. the gain is the safety of the equity being liquid and the ability to travel and say, fuk the world your policies of world destruction suk and i'm going to go where no bombs will be dropped.

that would be my reasoning...

duo, plez respond if you come back to see wtf was posted.

In reply to by XBroker1

duo new game Sun, 02/18/2018 - 18:37 Permalink

House paid off, but in TX with property taxes and insurance, it still costs me $1000/mo to rent from the government.  If my house was worth $100K less, I'd save $2500/year in property taxes.  In the meantime I'd have my savings in a bank at 4% paying me $2700/month.  Yes, that would cover the rent in a smaller dwelling, but I could also retire and a millenial could have my old job.  So yes 4% interest rates without 20% inflation would be nice.

They don't call it financial repression for no reason.

In reply to by new game

Anon2017 Sun, 02/18/2018 - 09:50 Permalink

A deceptive headline but I did click on it.

By the time bread in the US costs $200 a loaf, Donald Trump will be out of office and the high cost of living will be someone else's problem. Those who do not learn from history are condemned to repeat it. Most Americans are terrible at learning from history.

Greenspazm Sun, 02/18/2018 - 11:23 Permalink

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