Japanese, Chinese Data Disaster Crushes 'Global Synchronous Recovery' Narrative

US data has been ugly in recent weeks, disappointing to its weakest in 4 months...

European data has been gravely disappointing as Draghi tries to pull the region out of QE.

And tonight we get confirmation of Asia's demise as first Japan and then China show signs of serious economic slowdowns.

First Japan, which saw retail sales plunge 1.8% - 3 times worse than expected, in January - the biggest plunge since Feb 2016...

But then Japanese Industrial Production crashed 6.6% MoM - its biggest collapse since the 2011 tsunami!

And then China data hit...

Even allowing for the lunar new year's distortions, Chinese PMI data is a disaster, piling on to the disaster that saw 1st Tier home prices sink most since 2015, and Anbang Insurance bailed out by regulators (due to liquidity concerns).

While some suggested pollution curbs (or regulatory efforts to control debt and leverage) could be blamed for the declines, consensus economists were likely fully aware of the calendar and the government policies and still drastically misplaced their optimism.

The Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.3, compared with a 51.1 forecast in Bloomberg’s economist survey and 51.3 the prior month.

Under the hood in manufacturing, both imports and new export orders contracted (readings below 50), and input and output price growth slumped, with small enterprises dominating the collapse.

The Non-Manufacturing PMI slipped to 54.4 from 55.3 the prior month, the statistics bureau said Wednesday.

Selling prices contracted, as did employment, new export orders, and work backlogs

The Composite index covering both services and manufacturing stood at 52.9, versus 54.6 in January. Numbers above 50 indicate improving conditions

The Steel Industry PMI sunk to 49.5, below 50, signaling a contraction as output collapsed.

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All of which has crushed the hopes and dreams of the global synchronous recovery narrative - as global macro data surprises have collapsed into the negative and lowest since Sept 2016...

All of which was nothing but China's massive credit impulse flooding through the global economy...

Coming later tonight is Indian PMI, Malaysian inflation, Thailand trade data and Hong Kong GDP figures... so there's still hope?



gatorengineer philipat Tue, 02/27/2018 - 21:06 Permalink

Guys we all got taken in by the look a squirrel moment... shame msm or even the conservative sites didn't cover it.  I found it on a Qanon board.  This needs to be a lead story Tyler.  Surprised msm didnt make it a lead story spike the football and all.

Semi auto and 10 round ban went into affect Feb 22 in Maryland there is now legal precedent to take our guns


In reply to by philipat

GooseShtepping Moron Tue, 02/27/2018 - 21:15 Permalink

There is one thing everybody has to remember when looking at econometric data, and it's important enough that, if need be, you should write it on a piece of masking tape and paste it to the top of your monitor. The simple reminder is:

"There is no global growth."

Every developed country in the world is deep in debt. Every developed country in the world is facing a demographic inversion and an imminent population collapse. The low-hanging fruit of industrialization and IT have long since been picked. Everybody is in a race to the bottom, fighting over their share of a shrinking pie. There cannot be any growth under such circumstances.

Keep that in mind, and it all makes sense.

Let it Go Tue, 02/27/2018 - 22:32 Permalink

Recently Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the People’s Bank (PBOC), spoke of “fierce market reactions” and a possible Minsky Moment, the tipping point when credit cycles break and euphoric booms collapse under their own weight. Mr. Zhou told China Daily that asset speculation and property bubbles could pose a “systemic financial risk” made worse by the plethora of wealth management products, trusts, and off-books lending taking place throughout the country.

 http://China,China, China, Its All About China And Japan.html