Powell Hawkish Highlights: Ignore Recent Volatility, Gradual Rate Hikes Will Continue

In advance of his first testimony before the House at 10am today, Fed Chair Jay Powell released his prepared remarks moments ago, as "some of the headwinds the U.S. economy faced in previous years have turned into tailwinds" and that the Fed can continue gradually raising interest rates as the outlook for growth remains strong, as and the recent bout of financial volatility shouldn’t weigh on the U.S. economy.

Commenting on Trump's tax reform and policies, Powell said that "fiscal policy has become more stimulative and foreign demand for U.S. exports is on a firmer trajectory." He also glossed over the recent bout of volatility, "saying financial conditions remain accommodative." At the same time, he noted that "inflation remains below our 2 percent longer-run objective. In the FOMC's view, further gradual increases in the federal funds rate will best promote attainment of both of our objectives. As always, the path of monetary policy will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data."

Of particular interest to markets will be Powell's commentary on recent market events, which Powell is not too worried about: "After easing substantially during 2017, financial conditions in the United States have reversed some of that easing. At this point, we do not see these developments as weighing heavily on the outlook for economic activity, the labor market, and inflation. Indeed, the economic outlook remains strong."

Looking forward, Powell said that "in gauging the appropriate path for monetary policy over the next few years, the FOMC will continue to strike a balance between avoiding an overheated economy and bringing PCE price inflation to 2 percent on a sustained basis."

Also notable is his conviction that "the economic outlook remains strong" because "the robust job market should continue to support growth in household incomes and consumer spending, solid economic growth among our trading partners should lead to further gains in U.S. exports, and upbeat business sentiment and strong sales growth will likely continue to boost business investment."

The Fed chair also said that “we anticipate that inflation on a 12-month basis will move up this year and stabilize around the FOMC’s 2 percent objective over the medium term,’’ and added that the lag in wages during the expansion was due to low gains in output per hour, or productivity, though a new wave of investment spending “should support higher productivity growth in time.’’

Wages should increase at a faster pace as well,’’ Powell said, adding that the FOMC continued to view the shortfall in inflation last year “as likely reflecting transitory influences that we do not expect will repeat.’’

While getting little attention lately, the Fed's balance sheet runoff continues, and as Powell claims "that program has been proceeding smoothly. These interest rate and balance sheet actions reflect the Committee's view that gradually reducing monetary policy accommodation will sustain a strong labor market while fostering a return of inflation to 2 percent."

Finally, on the topic of transition from Yellen to Powell, the new Fed chair explained that "Chair Yellen and I have worked to ensure a smooth leadership transition and provide for continuity in monetary policy."

* * *

Overall, a modestly hawkish commentary, with optimistic tone on wages and inflation, while lacking concern about market volatility and the recent market correction, hinting that as long as "outlook remains strong", rate hikes will continue, although as some banks have noted, there is "far from a strong endorsement of 4 rate hikes" instead Powell promising data-dependence and that the "path of monetary policy will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data."

His full testimony is below:

Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress

Chairman Jerome H. Powell

Chairman Hensarling, Ranking Member Waters, and members of the Committee, I am pleased to present the Federal Reserve's semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress.

On the occasion of my first appearance before this Committee as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, I want to express my appreciation for my predecessor, Chair Janet Yellen, and her important contributions. During her term as Chair, the economy continued to strengthen and Federal Reserve policymakers began to normalize both the level of interest rates and the size of the balance sheet. Together, Chair Yellen and I have worked to ensure a smooth leadership transition and provide for continuity in monetary policy. I also want to express my appreciation for my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Finally, I want to affirm my continued support for the objectives assigned to us by the Congress--maximum employment and price stability--and for transparency about the Federal Reserve's policies and programs. Transparency is the foundation for our accountability, and I am committed to clearly explaining what we are doing and why we are doing it. Today I will briefly discuss the current economic situation and outlook before turning to monetary policy.

Current Economic Situation and Outlook
The U.S. economy grew at a solid pace over the second half of 2017 and into this year. Monthly job gains averaged 179,000 from July through December, and payrolls rose an additional 200,000 in January. This pace of job growth was sufficient to push the unemployment rate down to 4.1 percent, about 3/4 percentage point lower than a year earlier and the lowest level since December 2000. In addition, the labor force participation rate remained roughly unchanged, on net, as it has for the past several years--that is a sign of job market strength, given that retiring baby boomers are putting downward pressure on the participation rate. Strong job gains in recent years have led to widespread reductions in unemployment across the income spectrum and for all major demographic groups. For example, the unemployment rate for adults without a high school education has fallen from about 15 percent in 2009 to 5-1/2 percent in January of this year, while the jobless rate for those with a college degree has moved down from 5 percent to 2 percent over the same period. In addition, unemployment rates for African Americans and Hispanics are now at or below rates seen before the recession, although they are still significantly above the rate for whites. Wages have continued to grow moderately, with a modest acceleration in some measures, although the extent of the pickup likely has been damped in part by the weak pace of productivity growth in recent years.

Turning from the labor market to production, inflation-adjusted gross domestic product rose at an annual rate of about 3 percent in the second half of 2017, 1 percentage point faster than its pace in the first half of the year. Economic growth in the second half was led by solid gains in consumer spending, supported by rising household incomes and wealth, and upbeat sentiment. In addition, growth in business investment stepped up sharply last year, which should support higher productivity growth in time. The housing market has continued to improve slowly. Economic activity abroad also has been solid in recent quarters, and the associated strengthening in the demand for U.S. exports has provided considerable support to our manufacturing industry.

Against this backdrop of solid growth and a strong labor market, inflation has been low and stable. In fact, inflation has continued to run below the 2 percent rate that the FOMC judges to be most consistent over the longer run with our congressional mandate. Overall consumer prices, as measured by the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), increased 1.7 percent in the 12 months ending in December, about the same as in 2016. The core PCE price index, which excludes the prices of energy and food items and is a better indicator of future inflation, rose 1.5 percent over the same period, somewhat less than in the previous year. We continue to view some of the shortfall in inflation last year as likely reflecting transitory influences that we do not expect will repeat; consistent with this view, the monthly readings were a little higher toward the end of the year than in earlier months.

After easing substantially during 2017, financial conditions in the United States have reversed some of that easing. At this point, we do not see these developments as weighing heavily on the outlook for economic activity, the labor market, and inflation. Indeed, the economic outlook remains strong. The robust job market should continue to support growth in household incomes and consumer spending, solid economic growth among our trading partners should lead to further gains in U.S. exports, and upbeat business sentiment and strong sales growth will likely continue to boost business investment. Moreover, fiscal policy is becoming more stimulative. In this environment, we anticipate that inflation on a 12-month basis will move up this year and stabilize around the FOMC's 2 percent objective over the medium term. Wages should increase at a faster pace as well. The Committee views the near-term risks to the economic outlook as roughly balanced but will continue to monitor inflation developments closely.

Monetary Policy
I will now turn to monetary policy. The Congress has assigned us the goals of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Over the second half of 2017, the FOMC continued to gradually reduce monetary policy accommodation. Specifically, we raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at our December meeting, bringing the target to a range of 1-1/4 to 1-1/2 percent. In addition, in October we initiated a balance sheet normalization program to gradually reduce the Federal Reserve's securities holdings. That program has been proceeding smoothly. These interest rate and balance sheet actions reflect the Committee's view that gradually reducing monetary policy accommodation will sustain a strong labor market while fostering a return of inflation to 2 percent.

In gauging the appropriate path for monetary policy over the next few years, the FOMC will continue to strike a balance between avoiding an overheated economy and bringing PCE price inflation to 2 percent on a sustained basis. While many factors shape the economic outlook, some of the headwinds the U.S. economy faced in previous years have turned into tailwinds: In particular, fiscal policy has become more stimulative and foreign demand for U.S. exports is on a firmer trajectory. Despite the recent volatility, financial conditions remain accommodative. At the same time, inflation remains below our 2 percent longer-run objective. In the FOMC's view, further gradual increases in the federal funds rate will best promote attainment of both of our objectives. As always, the path of monetary policy will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

In evaluating the stance of monetary policy, the FOMC routinely consults monetary policy rules that connect prescriptions for the policy rate with variables associated with our mandated objectives. Personally, I find these rule prescriptions helpful. Careful judgments are required about the measurement of the variables used, as well as about the implications of the many issues these rules do not take into account. I would like to note that this Monetary Policy Report provides further discussion of monetary policy rules and their role in the Federal Reserve's policy process, extending the analysis we introduced in July.

Thank you. I would be pleased to take your questions.

Comments

Bes Brazen Heist Tue, 02/27/2018 - 09:30 Permalink

Trump's Powell Hawkish Highlights: Ignore Recent Volatility, Gradual Usury Hikes Will Continue.

there, fixed it for you

------

everything is about to get more expensive and now that they bought everything with ZIRP, QE, fractional Reserve, Wall Street casino, monopoly Fiat

so why do the oligarchs care? they don't.

they'll just do more control + print to the moon

to keep up with higher rates

#thankstrump

In reply to by Brazen Heist

FireBrander Brazen Heist Tue, 02/27/2018 - 09:31 Permalink

They're raising rates to build up that buffer so they can tear them down again because they're near the floor at the moment. Rinse and repeat.

 Slowly withdrawing the opioids...careful not to kill the patient...risky business.

Bernanke's Mission in 2009:

1. Re-inflate stocks.

2. Re-inflate housing.

3. Recapitalize the banks.

Mission Accomplished!

~~~~~~~~~

Powell's Mission in 2018:

1. Get himself out of the quagmire his predecessors created.

In reply to by Brazen Heist

Ink Pusher Dratpmurt Tue, 02/27/2018 - 09:08 Permalink

Here's a FACT:

We are all sick of fucking trolls like you parroting a false and failed partisan doctrine of stupidity.

Here's another FACT:

Raising rates will NOT make any difference because they cannot do anything but  wring their hands and HOPE to stabilize the shitty result of their past decade of failed "initiatives".

When you see WAR BONDS soon go on sale appear ,then you'll see the light.

In reply to by Dratpmurt

FireBrander ikemike Tue, 02/27/2018 - 09:40 Permalink

This is very one dimensional thinking.  Higher rates are good for the populace.  It will increase their savings, and it will bring bid ticket items back down to reality.

Those "savings" have been loaned out 20x over for cars/homes/education that is grossly overpriced; DEBT that is already is struggling to be repaid.

Higher rates blows the whole "cheap money" game to bits; and those "savings" will be lost (bailed in).

The only winning strategy was not to play the "cheap money" game in the first place.

Powell is trying to "slowly unplug" the life support system (cheap money) of the US Economy.

In reply to by ikemike

spastic_colon Tue, 02/27/2018 - 08:45 Permalink

the US may have learned their lesson watching everyone else's hyper-inflation nightmare's (including their own <whisper whisper>).............let the price declines begin!

An Shrubbery Tue, 02/27/2018 - 08:52 Permalink

Everything's awesome!

Edit:

"Our financial institutions are STRONG, and QE continues to be the bedrock...blah...blah..."

P.P.S. Increasing rates increases the rate of borrowing to pay off the Ponzi Federal debt, which increases the velocity of the death spiral... meh...

Quivering Lip Tue, 02/27/2018 - 08:54 Permalink

Come on people, he's just the face for the people that own the CB bank. At least this guy's more handsome than the last dude and his lip doesn't quiver when he lies like the one before that.

bunkers Tue, 02/27/2018 - 08:56 Permalink

Powell is following Yellen's plan and Yellen is a democrat. 

The intent is to harm President Trump, even if it harms America, Americans and the dollar, before the 2018 midterm elections, insuring communists win the elections.

 

KenilworthCookie Tue, 02/27/2018 - 09:05 Permalink

Interest rates should rise.If that is at the expense of the stock market and the housing market so be it.Both stocks and housing were pumped up Only because of the Fed,Treasury,Plunge protection team and Exchange and stabilization fund.Unfortunate for President Trump.He took credit for the ramp up and will own it on the way down.True economic growth came in the country when interest rates were high and the dollar had purchasing power.

silverer Tue, 02/27/2018 - 09:25 Permalink

Obviously, they are sharpening the blades on the financial strip-mining equipment. First, get the average US Joe in debt as deeply as possible. Next, raise interest rates. We've got a winner!

Last of the Mi… Tue, 02/27/2018 - 09:26 Permalink

Think of it this way. The Fed has a massive amount of money, more than the GDP, if they so desire. They move it from one place to another within the economy, in and out of corporate debt, the stock market, government bonds, literally anywhere they want for the express purpose of creating the "illusion" of managing an economy while the globalist/banker cabal literally make hundreds of millions front running their next move with information that will never ever be shared to the "lesser equal". They are literally elephants dancing in the garden, releasing prose and propaganda about the trampled flowers that the rest of us are. It is, at it's most fundamental, the maniacal insanity of the ultra wealthy designed to feign concern where none ever existed.