Trade Wars Set To Go Nuclear: US Considering Broad Curbs On Chinese Imports

First thing this morning, when the market was surging and inexplicably rejoicing in the certainty that Trump would back down on tariffs, a nagging feeling that this was all wrong prompted us to ask "What If Trump Does Not Back Down", and to follow it up with a troubling rumor from Strategas, namely that this is all about China, and would involve a massive amount of tariffs, to wit:

Trump himself has also said that the trade wars have one major target: Beijing, with the rest of the world negotiable collateral damage. Just yesterday, the US trade rep made it clear that both Mexico and Canada would get an exemption from the tariffs once they agreed to a "fair" renegotiation of Nafta.

And beyond the already announced aluminum and steel tariffs, there is another far more troubling aspect, or rather number, to Trump's protectionist push noted by Strategas. The number is $1 trillion. Here is Strategas:

President Trump is considering imposing tariffs on Chinese goods in response to China stealing US intellectual property. This is often referred to as Section 301 and President Trump specifically mentioned this action in both his Davos and State of the Union speeches. The rumor around DC is that the US will impose $1 trillion of tariffs, which would shock financial markets. We believe the $1 trillion number is too high. Since the US imports $450bn from China, across the board tariffs would need to be 200 percent. Even for Trump that is too much. But given the magnitude of what is being discussed, China would need to respond.

If Strategas is correct, and if Trump's ultimate intention is to hit China with tariffs in the "hundreds of billions" (or more), it's on, and the resulting trade wars will promptly cripple all China-facing US corporations first, followed by the rest of the S&P.

This afternoon, with the unexpected resignation of Gary Cohn, this was partially confirmed, however the full confirmation that it was indeed, all about China, came moments after the Cohn news, when Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration is considering clamping down on Chinese investments in the U.S. by slapping tariffs on a broad range of its imports in response to alleged intellectual-property theft, according to people familiar with the matter.

The U.S. actions would result from the U.S. Trade Representative’s 301 investigation into China IP practices, and will hardly be a surprise now that Trump's chief trade advisor is Peter Navarro, author of such books as "Death by China" and "Crouching Tiger: What China’s Militarism Means for the World"

As Bloomberg adds, under the most severe scenario being considered, the U.S. could impose tariffs on a wide range of Chinese imports, from shoes to consumer electronics.

Additionally, the White House could combine the tariffs with restrictions on Chinese investments in the U.S., which are reviewed for national-security risks by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S., the Bloomberg sources said. The U.S. is also considering a more targeted approach that would seek to rein in Chinese investments

Furthermore, the White House is looking at ways to enforce reciprocity with China on foreign investment, meaning the U.S. would only allow takeovers in sectors that U.S. companies can access in China.

There is still a chance that a trade mushroom cloud could be avoided: officials told Bloomberg that they are still examining various options, and USTR could decide to do nothing.

However, when the announcement is made, sometime in April, we doubt it will be nothing. In fact, we are quite confident that when the dust settles, Beijing will be quite furious at Washington.


MK ULTRA Alpha tmosley Tue, 03/06/2018 - 21:33 Permalink

The Chinese $1 trillion US debt blackmail won't work, the Fed will sell the balance sheet into the flood of liquidity or conduct federal open market operations which can remove every dollar in existence.

If the US removed dollars from the system, then the dollar would be in demand to a point, the dollar would be the most valuable currency in the world.

Let me remind you, the reason for US policy on Asia and Europe trade was driven by David Rockefeller Trilateral Commission. A secret group which controlled presidents, and the policy was to build up the economies of Europe and Asia at our expense as a bulwark against communism.

Even when Japan used predatory capitalism to destroy US industries he didn't stop his dream of one world government. He wrote his thesis at Harvard on globalism. David Rockefeller did incredible damage to this country. Nixon coming off the gold standard was directly caused by Japan. The Reagan era Plaza Accord, I believe it was Jim Baker who did the deal. US currency was devalued, even further back, Johnson removed silver dimes and quarters from the currency because the dollar had been weakened from the Trilateral Commission policy.

Rockefeller knew he had made a terrible mistake when he called corporate leaders to a meeting, just before his recent death urging them to create jobs in America.

Thank God Rockefeller and Brzezinski are dead and in hell where they belong. Both of these men helped to destroy our country.

These two men did more damage than Clinton, Bush and Obama did to this nation. And Brzezinski's daughter is on Morning Joe proving the contempt Mr. Brzezinski had for America. If it wasn't for Rockefeller, a Manchurian Candidate Brzezinski would have never been able to direct the US through the Oval office.

Recently a good example of Brzezinski's contempt for Americans, was when she responded against Americans who question media, she said the media tells Americans what to think. In other words, Americans aren't allowed to think on their own.

The electronic control grid, the police state, homeland security(and the eastern European term homeland security and the Russian term weapons of mass destruction came from Eastern Europeans and Russians in think tanks and in the government. Bush II police state was already prepared before 911. Brzezinski most likely coined the the use of the terms, but he is the father of the NSA electronic control grid which is now tied with the FBI allowing the instant access to Americans communications and movements. THAT IS A FACT LOOK IT UP.

Both Rockefeller and Brzezinski didn't get God's warning, Rockefeller was inflicted by polio, and Brzezinski had a painful death by cancer.. Both are in HELL WHERE THEY BELONG for what they did to the American people.

In reply to by tmosley

MK ULTRA Alpha joep3joep3 Tue, 03/06/2018 - 20:59 Permalink

Thank God.

The US is 18% of China's mercantile export market. Nearly $400 billion US trade deficit.

When Commerce Secretary Ross negotiated for US beef to be able to reenter the China market, the Chinese said the US must buy the exact corresponding amount of China chicken. It's a one way street, now we will close the street.

The US can't sustain a nearly $400 billion GROWING trade deficit with China. In five years, the five year total trade deficit would amount to $2 trillion. This amount of lost trade would finish off the US economy when combined with the trade deficits of our NATO allies, Japan and South Korea.

The one world government WTO system isn't working, all of these nations are cheating and the US has an open door.

The WTO World Trade Organization has not enforced WTO regulations on China, NATO allies, Japan and South Korea. US products are taxed. China enforces a boycott of US goods by using peer group enforcement, if one is seen buying an American product, then action is taken. It's similar to the social credit program of control.

Xi the leader of China, started a campaign to eliminate US culture, Christianity and worked to undermine the US global reserve currency which can no longer be called the petrodollar. The petrodollar died a long time ago, the global economy is much larger than when the US tied the dollar to oil. The US dollar is a beast of burden instrument which facilitates global trade. Not US trade.

During the Obama era, the last visit Xi made to the US, as soon as his plane touched down, Xi told a reporter, with anger, he was going to destroy the dollar, since that time, Xi has worked feverishly to destroy the US.

The Chinese objective is to push the US out of Asia. Why? Chinese expansion. It's pay back time and the Chinese have a long memory, a collective memory. The Chinese were driven out of Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines, and Malaysia. If the Americans can be broken and pushed out of Asia, these nations are to be conquered because the ancestor worshiping Chinese believe their ancestors owned these lands.

Without the US in Asia, Taiwan will be invaded, they will kill around 2 million Taiwanese has payback.

India has already been divided up by China in promises made to the Pakistani military.

If anyone can not see what the Chinese are up to, then you're a foreign troll or a brain washed communist kid.

In reply to by joep3joep3

popeye MK ULTRA Alpha Wed, 03/07/2018 - 02:18 Permalink

Guess I'm a foreign troll, because from my point of view you are looking at China through a US lens.
I have worked with many Chinese, many Taiwanese, and visited both China and Taiwan. I pay attention to this part of the world because activity in that area influences economic conditions in my own nation.

I believe you do not understand China (at all) and are fundamentally mistaken. The primary purpose of Chinese action is not to attack the USA, but to promote the prosperity of China. Given the USA has for 100 years and continues to attempt to influence nations in Asia, of course some actions of China will be directed to limit, negate or reverse that influence. And because the USA is not subtle, some of the Chinese tactics employed cannot be subtle either, though they are almost invariably more subtle and employed as parts of longer term strategies than US tactics.

When you attempt to dominate the world, and see that as your right, of course when others strive for another vision you will see that as opposition. I find your comment about China attempting to eliminate US culture (presumably in China) to be revealing.

This is not to say all that China does is neutral to others - it is not, nor is it intended to be. China acts in its own interests, as citizens of every country hope of their own.

To summarise: humankind is bigger, more complex and diverse than the US desires - get used to it.

In reply to by MK ULTRA Alpha

Endgame Napoleon Justin Case Tue, 03/06/2018 - 20:24 Permalink

If they are such GREAT markets, why do we have such massive trade deficits with them, decade after decade, particularly with China? One reason is that they steal intellectual property, using it to set up their own government-financed companies, producing copies of American-designed products. They sell their citizens the copies, not the American products, which are less competitive, anyway, due to China’s unfair tariffs. But unless products are again manufactured here in the USA, rather than in China and other Asian countries, where Kumbaya American (multinational) companies have access to a racially uniform workforce of low-wage workers, the only US citizens who will benefit from stricter intellectual property enforcement are the highly paid managers, the shareholders and the owners of these American-in-name-only companies. American multinationals only hire a handful of American citizens.

In reply to by Justin Case

Winston Churchill lester1 Tue, 03/06/2018 - 19:51 Permalink

Can you post your address and which days you play poker ?

Trump doesn't even hold a pair of three's in this game.

The USA has no military advantage and is now well behind the Russians,and the petrogoldyuan is about to be launched.

All happening this month,co-incidence,I don't think so.

DJT thought he had time to play with to turn things round,but the clock has tolled out.

This is petulant frustration,never a good thing,but I saw him do exactly the same in person back in the 90s.

Beware the Ides of March.





In reply to by lester1

keep the basta… DC Beastie Boy Tue, 03/06/2018 - 21:37 Permalink

Most people can't do without textiles, garments, shoes, hats, tableware,  furniture, solar, electronics, iPhones, computers, cashmere sweaters,toys, adult toys, sheets bedding, feather down, plates, cookware, garden tools, lawn mowers, hedge clippers, cameras, handbags, fashion items, kors products for American women, hats, ivankas clothing bags jewellery, jcrew products, tents and camping products, buckets,  just for a start. All from. China

In reply to by DC Beastie Boy