"Job Market Is Red Hot, Threatens To Overheat" Zandi Warns After ADP Beat

Amid 50-year lows in initial claims but slumping survey data, ADP printed a much-better-than-expected 235k (200k exp), a modest downtick from an upwardly revised January. Job gains were very broad-based and Mark Zandi confirmed "we're going into the 3s" for unemployment.

 “The job market is red hot and threatens to overheat. With government spending increases and tax cuts, growth is set to accelerate.”

This is the 5th month in a row of 200k-plus gains...

Change in Nonfarm Private Employment

Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment

Only Information Service providers saw job losses in February...

A visual breakdown:

Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Company Size

“The labor market continues to experience uninterrupted growth,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.

“We see persistent gains across most industries with leisure and hospitality and retail leading the way as consumer spending kicked up. At this pace of job growth employers will soon become hard-pressed to find qualified workers.”

Finally, as a reminder, we note that since President Trump's election, ADP's data has been systemically upward-biased relative to the pre-Trump era.

Full breakdown, courtesy of the always delightful, monthly ADP infographic:

     ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 235,000 Jobs in February

While ADP gives us a glimpse of what is to come on Friday, all eyes will really be on the wage growth data and what that means for inflation (and The Fed)... but this data pretty much guarantees a March rate hike.


philipat Whoa Dammit Wed, 03/07/2018 - 09:04 Permalink

See next article:

2017 Wage Growth At Lowest In 9 Years

Something doesn't add up and the bottom line is which data sets are easier to "massage". I would contend the jobs numbers because they are all based on seasonal and other adjustments. Totally unnecessary if they were just to use a moving total YOY. But that would be more transparent so out of the question.

And Zandi has always been an establishment cocksucker in whom I have zero trust. And beloved of CNBS which is the final confirmation...

In reply to by Whoa Dammit

Bobbyrib InnVestuhrr Wed, 03/07/2018 - 09:33 Permalink

It's the Federal Government and the Federal Reserve's fault for propping up an economic system that needs to collapse (and will).

Please stop the myth that if it wasn't for taxes, the money you put towards taxes would go into the pockets of your employees. That's bullshit. You pay them a certain amount of take home pay that they're willing to accept and try to minimize employee costs. It's basic capitalism.

In reply to by InnVestuhrr

InnVestuhrr Bobbyrib Wed, 03/07/2018 - 10:24 Permalink

You are illiterate, possibly stupid, maybe that is the reason for your poverty.

I did not write that the money employers put towards taxes would go instead to the pockets of employees - I wrote that if GOVERNMENT was NOT stealing everyone's earnings by FAR TOO MUCH, then people could live on their wages.

Most of my employees lose between 30% and 40% of their gross earnings to taxes from every level of government - stop that robbery and they get a 30% and 40% NET pay increase.

Sounds like you are one of the entitlement parasites living off other people's earnings.

In reply to by Bobbyrib

Kprime InnVestuhrr Wed, 03/07/2018 - 14:12 Permalink

you are 100% right in all you say, except for one item.  The level of theft.

When you fully recognize the .gov theft taking place:

licenses, fees, penalties, interest manipulation, currency inflation theft, payroll taxes, ss taxes, health taxes, inflation of health and education costs due to .gov manipulation. hidden taxes in phone bills, utility bills, gasoline, registration fees for cars, boats, trailers, transportation taxes passed along.  I don't know the list may literally be endless, there is no way I can begin to name them all.  I estimate the .gov is stealing between 65%-80% of the earning power of the average citizen.  How else can they be 200 trillion dollars behind the curve?

In the years that .gov is collecting the most taxes ever, they are still deficit spending the most $$ ever.

In reply to by InnVestuhrr

VZ58 Bobbyrib Wed, 03/07/2018 - 11:21 Permalink

Yeah sure, I own a small business and  we are all in it to rip off our workers. Yeah, that's the recipe for success alright. You are another douchebag who has never owned a business. Talk to your retarded elected officials about why your paycheck is eaten away at more and more to pay for institutions that do f*ck all to help the citizens.  

In reply to by Bobbyrib

philipat lester1 Wed, 03/07/2018 - 09:13 Permalink

Yes they will and Trump is right in that the US market is so large that others need access. Unfortunately, it may be too late to fight a sustained battle because:

  1. There will be an initial decline in trade, especially as the EU retaliates. And in the short term the combination of higher prices for essentials and negative real income is not good for an economy which comprises 70%+ consumption.
  2. The Establishment, and especially The Fed, will use the excuse of a "Trade War" and the negative events implicit in (1 above to crash the markets and CYA. They are already manoevering to cover long exposure. This will be blamed on Trump's protectionist policies, tax cuts and budget increases.

So, IMHO, Trump will run out of time. This will all happen before the mid-terms and then the negative momentum of crashed markets will continue through to 2020.

PS. Where the fuck is Sessions? (A: He's in California) Hmmmm......

In reply to by lester1

NoPension Yellow_Snow Wed, 03/07/2018 - 09:02 Permalink

Yeah...because .gov stepped in and started giving them a check. Not a lot, I got it. Not a great life, I understand. Just enough to take the fire out of their belly, and ruin them for life. 

  And I'm not arguing the bennies cost us in straight dollars. They cost us by taking whole generations of people, with no work ethic...with no drive to do better....just being fed and housed enough to keep them quite. 

 But, we need these people to being doing something more productive than to pull the right lever every 4 years.....

In reply to by Yellow_Snow

InnVestuhrr NoPension Wed, 03/07/2018 - 09:18 Permalink

BULLSEYE !!! UPVOTE 10000000000

I would require everyone who gets any kind of entitlement from any level of gummint to report every day for real work that is useful, eg picking up trash, cutting weeds, making bike lanes/trails, etc, and if that kind of work is not provided, then they must dig holes and then put the soil back into the holes.

This requirement will cut the entitlement burden by millions of parasites, allowing the HUGE income tax plunder of working people's earnings to be cut down by a correspondingly huge amount, and then working people will be able to live on what they earn.

In reply to by NoPension

buzzsaw99 wmbz Wed, 03/07/2018 - 08:43 Permalink

one hundred million on food stamps and he wants us to believe that the job market is red hot.  it's laughable.  if "they" want to use the bs line of a great economy to crash the stock market that's fine by me.  it matters very little to little people what "they" do at this point.  we all know "they" just want to keep fucking the poor harder and harder until they die.

In reply to by wmbz

The Ram buzzsaw99 Wed, 03/07/2018 - 10:18 Permalink

This article is total propaganda.  I am in IT here in South FL and I can tell you that the market in IT is anything but hot AND the wages have decreased very rapidly over just 2 years ago.  IT is generally ok here in south FL, but along with other professions, the market is down.  Yes, we have lots of $10/hr jobs if you want to do landscaping, but any job at or below $15/hr does not count as that type of job will insure that the employee pays little or no taxes, and in most cases, is subsidized through the governments by food stamps (SNAP) and lots of other bennies.  I read propaganda everyday and I think, 'gee, are idiots out there actually buying this?'  Btw, as a way of concrete example, my brother is a financial analyst here in south, FL and has been out of work within his career field for 9 months.  He works 3 part time jobs. Also, I was laid off from my 'contract' position in January and it took me 7 weeks to get a job....for my skill set, that is a lot of time.  Normally, it would be two weeks or less.  Also, most of the IT work here in South, FL is contract.  

In reply to by buzzsaw99

Jon_Locke Wed, 03/07/2018 - 08:30 Permalink

Notice how its always a problem when people actually start getting jobs and or an increase in wages. They want to make damn sure nobody gets ahead.

NoPension JoeTurner Wed, 03/07/2018 - 08:57 Permalink

You are. 

Any job that requires someone to work skillfully with their hands and mind ( auto repair, construction trades, manufacturing...such as machinist or welder, etc ) can't find adequate help. 

  The schools have failed us. They all seem to see their goal as to get the kid into college. Where are the trade classes? All but eliminated. High tech, high tech, silicone valley, blah, blah, Amazon, blah, Tesla, blah....computers....

Meanwhile...who fixes your car, water heater, furnace, well pump, installs a kitchen, builds a bridge???

 I'd hazard a guess you work in an " office " .  Yeah, plenty of those schlubs out there. Colleges are spitting them out like crazy. 

In reply to by JoeTurner

Sonny Brakes NoPension Wed, 03/07/2018 - 09:23 Permalink

Even if you've worked in some of the industries you've mentioned in your post, employers are unable to pay the workers they need the wages those workers are worth. Employers are minimizing the work experience, workers bring them because they know instinctively that employers are not developing the mobile workforce it once chose from. I have 30 years of work experience, but it's 30 years of history the future doesn't need anymore. We're still being paid in dollars that don't hold their purchasing power. Wages haven't really budged in my working life. Taking a job is a net loss for some people.

In reply to by NoPension