These 15 States Will Be Hit The Hardest By Trump's New Tariffs

Last week we discussed that while Trump's steel and aluminum import tariffs were reportedly conceived mostly to hurt China and force it to reduce its trade surplus with the US, at least in their current iteration they will hardly make much of a dent, as China is not even in the top 10 list  of direct steel exporters to the US.

In other words, we summarized "if Trump hopes to punish China (and Russia and South Korea), he will have to try mach harder."

Meanwhile, in addition to hurting US foreign trade partners, tariffs - which will push the prices of steel and aluminum materially higher - will also have a detrimental impact on US states which are net importers of the two commodities.

According to an analysis by the Trade Partnership, while the tariffs will boost the prospects of US steelmakers, they will have a net negative impact on other US industries. Specifically, economists Joseph Francois and Laura Baughman found that the new policy would increase employment in the US metals industry by 33,464 jobs while at the same time decreasing employment in other industries by about 179,334 jobs, resulting in a net loss of 146,000 jobs.

The majority of these job losses, according to Francois and Baughman, would come from lower-paying industries.

"High-skilled jobs (managers, professionals, technicians and related workers) account for one-third of the net job losses. Low-skilled workers (production workers, machine operators, office workers, administrative workers, sales/shops staff, and farm workers) bear the brunt of the tariffs, accounting for two-thirds of the total job losses."

Furthermore, other industries would see declines in employment as households scale back their spending in response to higher prices. From the study:

"Consumers have reduced spending power when they are hit by higher costs (of a new car, a new washing machine, etc.) and, for many, lost wages from unemployment. As a result, households pull back on spending; services like education, entertainment and even healthcare are on the front lines of the spending reduction impacts, with additional attendant job losses."

In other words, as steel and aluminum costs rise, so will prices of items made with those materials. Consumers will then feel the squeeze and buy fewer items, dealing another blow to consumer-sensitive businesses and causing cutbacks.

What does this mean when transposed to the state level? According to an analysis by Deutsche Bank's Torsten Slok, 15 US states are net importers of steel and aluminum: the chart shows the share of steel and aluminum imports as a share of the state's total imports. In other words the states shown below would be hit the hardest from Trump's tariffs, with Louisiana, Connecticut and Missouri expected to suffer the biggest hit.

The irony, as the WSJ's Nick Timiraos points out, is that 12 of the 15 states listed above voted for Trump.


Stuck on Zero Four Star Wed, 03/07/2018 - 20:44 Permalink

A few years back a high-rise building in Chicago was erected with Japanese steel. With US steel mills ten miles away it was still cheaper to get it from Japan. The mill in the US was the most advanced in the world and the raw materials were within 100 miles. Japan had to import all the materials from Australia, Brazil, and Indonesia. It then had to load the steel on ships and ship it all the way to Mississippi where it was trans-shipped by rail to Chicago. The US mill let go several hundred workers but the builder didn't have to worry about that ... the state took care of it. Japan lost some money on the deal but didn't have to fork out for the unemployment.

In reply to by Four Star

cheka TrajanOptimus Wed, 03/07/2018 - 21:06 Permalink

need blanket flat tariff.  no favors, no corruption

time to get back to the AMERICAN (pre-skype bankster takeover) system

with tariff revenue, reduce/eliminate taxes on WAGES

tariff every foreign product, no matter which globalist above-the-law megacorp makes it.  yes, that includes so-called american megacorps

boom - the jobs will come rushing back.  incentives to offshore removed.  nyc pigmen lose.  american working class wins

chump needs to get out in front of nyc -- telling the people what the skype will do -- crashing markets, reducing loans, etc to try and fight the return to the american system.  andrew jackson beat them doing same

In reply to by TrajanOptimus

earleflorida TrajanOptimus Wed, 03/07/2018 - 21:27 Permalink

I heard that the tariff's don't kick in until previous (? this the tricky part? that makes my mind hurt?) quotas have reached their benchmark... --- for example, a country has exported a million tonnes of steel where the avg. over five years  under fair trade was ~90 million tonnes,... so the tariff would be only applicable to 10 million tonnes 

of course this is all arbitrary

In reply to by TrajanOptimus

DPLETTENBERG Stuck on Zero Thu, 03/08/2018 - 07:03 Permalink

If Japan, or anyone else, wants to dump steel here that's great. By selling at artificially low prices they are subsidizing our economy. The difference in the cost of steel enabled the building owner to offer lower rents and helped make the building possible. Several hundred mill workers may have lost jobs but the low priced steel was a benefit for for many more. 

In reply to by Stuck on Zero

Brazen Heist lloll Wed, 03/07/2018 - 20:28 Permalink

Goldman Sucks and Co need to be smashed to pieces and downsized. Get rid of Dodd-Frank and reinstate Glass-Steagall. Better anti-trust laws. CFTC and SEC need to be purged of all the bankster cronies. The whole fucking system is a stinking swamp.

In reply to by lloll

Citizen_x shankster Wed, 03/07/2018 - 21:01 Permalink


When people wake up to the fact that their beloved USA was founded on GREED, maybe then, they will put the pieces together.  Democracy is just a BS story that's cheaper than martial law for our zookeepers.

Some alleged that a certain centuries old banking cartel was the driving force to modernize China into the 21st century much akin to USA in the late 18th century.  The carcass  is picked clean and off to the next buffet.  Likely, there is a cleaver story they are telling the Chinese to stay the coarse until they inevitably are picked clean.  All rinse and repeat ad infinitum.

In reply to by shankster

Fascal Rascal … swamp Wed, 03/07/2018 - 20:09 Permalink

Let the putin love fest begin.

faggots gonna fag.

rt propaganda.

suck it up.

here’s an idea...

move to rusha or china..  fuck, move to canada.

get the fuck out..  right? 

America is correcting course from obammy and demoncrat self destruction.

go to where you’ll be most free.

lowly pathetic victims should stick together. America is not for you.

In reply to by swamp

Mr Hankey Fascal Rascal … Wed, 03/07/2018 - 20:30 Permalink

'Murica!!!!FUCK YEAH!!!!!!Coming  again to save the mutherfuckin day YEAH!!!!!!!!!!USA!!!!!!USA!!!!!!USA!!!!!

Muh Freedumb!!!!!!

Muh Guns!!!!!!! 

Muh Truck-boat-truck!!!!!!

Muh Flag!!!!!!

Muh prodd!!!!

Muh plastic GEE-ZUSS!!!!

Muh NASCAR!!!!! 

Muh bacon double CHEESEBURGERS!!!!!!

Muh DIABETES!!!!!!

Muh million dollar military propaganda parade...FOR ONE NIGGERBALL GAME!!!!!!!$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$!!!!!$$$$$$




In reply to by Fascal Rascal …

Citizen_x any_mouse Thu, 03/08/2018 - 06:15 Permalink

Good points.

Someone above mentioned the idea of retooling the war machine.  The greedy idiots that infest the beltway thought it was a good idea to out source critical military hardware.  Let's take pause and think about that. 

Let's go to war with one of the countries who make the troop's spare parts. Yes, great idea.  I suppose that's why "military intelligence" is an oxymoron.

In reply to by any_mouse

MK13 FIAT CON Wed, 03/07/2018 - 21:43 Permalink

Are the guys producing the charts payed by globalist cabal to produce shit? Yes, they are. See

NAFTA will be shut down next - since Canada signed TPP and created a backdoor free access to American markets. It's time to stop unfair trade - with Germany exporting goods with no taxes attached - while China steals intellectual property and doesn't allow access to markets (where is Facebook, Amazon, or Google in China?).


And all the shills posting BS can go to Uncle Soros and cry him a river.

In reply to by FIAT CON

cheech_wizard FIAT CON Wed, 03/07/2018 - 21:59 Permalink…    (also mentions opening a steel plant)……

U.S. Steel announced on Wednesday that it will hire back 500 workers to restart operations at a previously shuttered blast furnace in Illinois. The company said the decision was made possible by the Trump tariffs.

Standard MAGA Disclaimer: I'd say way to fucking early...and the above was just a sampling.

In reply to by FIAT CON

lester1 Wed, 03/07/2018 - 19:56 Permalink

More globalist scare tactics..


If the globalists are terrified of tariffs,  that means it must be good for American workers!


cheka swamp Wed, 03/07/2018 - 21:20 Permalink

exactly right  -- looking at the radical leftist bolsheviks whining and screeching about tariffs should make the remaining dupes wake up and smell the massive 'free' trade propaganda (((they))) have jammed down our throats for several decades

and the only tariff info they 'taught' us?  the lie that smoot-hawley caused/worsened the depression...when it was an attempt to fix the frbny massive expansion and then contraction of the money supply.  ie, blaming the band-aid, not the bullet hole.  same liars have been caught faking many revisions of history...uhhhh hc

chump, no matter what, brought tariff back into the conversation.  just like ron paul did with frbny

In reply to by swamp