Update: ECB has unveiled its growth and inflation forecasts:
ECB GDP Projections: 2018: 2.4% (Prev. 2.3%), 2019: 1.9% (Prev. 1.9%), 2010: 1.7% (Prev. 1.7%)
ECB Inflation Projections: 2018: 1.4% (Prev. 1.4%), 2019: 1.4% (Prev. 1.5%), 2010: 1.7% (Prev. 1.7%)
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Having spiked EURUSD and Bund yields with his statement, which dropped the explicit pledge to increase QE if necessary, we suspect Mario Draghi - in his usual baffle 'em with bullshit manner - will walk back this comment in some convoluted way.
The ECB dropped its pledge to "increase the asset purchase program in terms of size and/or duration" if necessary -- suggesting they want to define a clearer path for the direction of stimulus. By removing the so-called easing bias on QE, they're showing more confidence that they'll be able to phase the program out.
Regarding non-standard monetary policy measures, the Governing Council confirms that the net asset purchases, at the new monthly pace of €30 billion, are intended to run until the end of September 2018, or beyond, if necessary, and in any case until the Governing Council sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim.
If the outlook becomes less favourable, or if financial conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, the Governing Council stands ready to increase the asset purchase programme (APP) in terms of size and/or duration. The Eurosystem will reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time after the end of its net asset purchases, and in any case for as long as necessary. This will contribute both to favourable liquidity conditions and to an appropriate monetary policy stance.
The ECB has left all three rates unchanged as expected but was overall hawkish, by tweaking the press release language and removing the easing bias on asset purchases.
The current timeline for stimulus removal is as follows:
Press Conference (0830ET)...