Fourth Turning's Neil Howe: "Today's Demographics Defy Conventional Wisdom"

John Mauldin interviewed Fourth Turning best-selling author and demographics expert, Neil Howe about generational changes and their effect on the markets, during a session at the Strategic Investment Conference 2018.  Howe said that demographics and generational factors have a huge impact on equity prices in the long run. Not only that, he thinks that there’s now a generational shift in wealth distribution that could spark major political and economic disruption.

Today’s Demographics Defies Conventional Wisdom

The main example Howe shared is that people in the 75+ age bracket still dominate stock ownership by far. This defies conventional wisdom that people reduce risk as they retire and leave the workforce. Meanwhile, Millennials have lower income and stock ownership levels than previous generations did at the same age.

This is a key change as senior adults once had the highest poverty rates. Younger people are now challenging that once-safe assumption.

Neil Howe

Howe also pointed out striking differences between early and late Baby Boomers. Those born in the mid/late 1940s inherited some of the Silent Generation’s wealth and good fortune. Late-stage Boomers born in the early 1960s score lower in all kinds of metrics.

Major Political and Financial Disruption Is Ahead

Neil Howe ended  with an update on his Fourth Turning generational theory. He thinks we are about midway through it. From an economic standpoint, he foresees inflation fear and Fed tightening, which will be followed by a painful recession.

Politically, Millennials desperately want civic re-engagement. They are seeking to completely restructure institutions. The right wing is a brick wall on this subject and numbers have let them hold off the pressure so far. This will change as Millennials grow older and Boomers die.

Howe also pointed out that generational wealth transfer is going to be highly concentrated, reflecting current wealth inequality. Boomer wealth will flow to younger generations but the vast majority of Generation X and Millennials will get very little.

As that happens, Howe anticipates major disruption, by which he means ugly inter generational conflict.

For this an more presentations tune in to the SIC 2018 live blog.

 

Comments

DownWithYogaPants HippieHaulers Sat, 03/10/2018 - 00:01 Permalink

Nostrildamus.  He reads the future in your loogies.

Have to write the guy off when he said "Right wing is a brick wall"

The fact is only the right has open minds with belief in free speech any more.  No problems are going to be solved by left wingers with their silly childish ideas that they have cast in concrete.  One only need pay a little attention to SJW AntiFa members to realize this.  Makes me think he just puts words in a hopper and twists the meat grinder crank to put these articles together.

In reply to by HippieHaulers

Cloud9.5 DownWithYogaPants Sat, 03/10/2018 - 07:22 Permalink

Every young man is a liberal.  If it were not so he would not have a heart.   Every old man is a conservative.  If it were not so he would not have a brain.  My son was a raging socialist.  He voted for Obama in his first term.  Two things changed that.  A black man put a gun to his head and robbed him  and the tax man takes about $50,000 out of his pay check every year.  He voted for Trump in the last election.

In reply to by DownWithYogaPants

rgraf Cloud9.5 Sat, 03/10/2018 - 18:09 Permalink

You don't know what a liberal or a conservative is. You've been schooled, and all you've done is mindlessly quote some bigoted bloviation without attribution. Your son's problem is that he inherited the stupid gene from you, you bootlicking slave. If your imbecilic son voted for Trump, then he still hasn't learned a damned thing about politics, and is neither a liberal, nor a conservative. No politician is going to fix things. That would put them out of business. It's idiots like you that perpetuate this mess. They've schooled you, and you can't see how ignorant yopu are. Educate yourself. Nobody can do that for you.

In reply to by Cloud9.5

MoralsAreEssential new game Sat, 03/10/2018 - 12:15 Permalink

You're right until you included Putin.  Putin is standing against the Elites as an advocate and warrior for his own people first and the rest of the world who WAKE UP and realize these PTB of Bloodline Families, total financial control and the belief that ALL OTHER HUMANS exist ONLY to serve their interests and be their slaves.  The world will either break this system up or become transhuman bots controlled by Tech, specifically the 5G synchonized system.  Only 18 months to stop.  Being rolled out in Norway experimentally.

In reply to by new game

Maghreb 38BWD22 Sat, 03/10/2018 - 08:39 Permalink

You are assuming the dumb asses do not vote for a hyper progressive inheritance tax that will go to service the National Debt. Republicans will piss and whine but they will make sure it goes through so D.C can keep the money coming in.

I think that is the real logic behind the Boomer vs Millennial agitation. Grandparents robbed their grand kids so the millennials will take revenge and unwittingly destroy the middle class....... 

In reply to by 38BWD22

bigkahuna Maghreb Sat, 03/10/2018 - 10:39 Permalink

GenX - at least the part of us who took the red pill has been trying to stop the madness via organizations like the Tea Party and the like. Unfortunately the millenials generally detest such groups - and the boomers I have spoke with are quick to invoke lame stream left wing language against us.

I argue "sustainability" and the millenials/boomers/much of GenX only cares about "sustainability" in rhetoric - but not in action. Even the now decaying silent generation I speak with does not get it - they don't care, they are busy measuring up their own caskets.

It will not be pretty. This will end up as a circular firing squad and the best way to handle it is to stay away from it.

In reply to by Maghreb

rgraf bigkahuna Sat, 03/10/2018 - 18:54 Permalink

The red pill must be the stupid pill. Organizations are the cause of the madness. Mob rule, with no regard for the individual. Sustainability is genocide. If you don't think so, you're illiterate. It has nothing to do with conserving resources or maintaining the ecosystem. It is about how many slaves the elite want to maintain.

In reply to by bigkahuna

Proofreder lloll Sat, 03/10/2018 - 21:08 Permalink

Aaaand here he is again, trolling for jew hate.

MF, with a new moniker at that.  Eat Shit and Die GD troll.

And the infestation rolls on.  With new bullshit and a link to the biblicalfuckyouwithaclick site.  Over and Over and ... words fail !

Speak Californian ??  Have a nice day  (fuckyou with malice)

In reply to by lloll

gdpetti Consuelo Sat, 03/10/2018 - 12:45 Permalink

Yeah... as those plagues we know about usually arrive with the cyclical return of the comets.. small clusters every few centuries and the main comet cluster every ~3600 yrs.... this time is different... as it follows the 'dark star', a burnt out brown dwarf, as it makes its own cyclical flyby the outer edge of our sun's limits... said to be no closer than Pluto's orbit.. so it's the outer planets most affected.. which will affect other intermagnetic factors of interplanetary alignment in league with our sun/star.... the comets follow this dark star... that's when the real 'Day After Tomorrow' kicks in.... that film was just the kiddie version.. as the planet's entire EM field  is being affected as the sun slows down as it shares the current flow with the dark star and the comet cluster that follows.... End of the World as we Know it... as it preps for the transition to the next level of the cosmic game/school.

In reply to by Consuelo

HRH of Aquitaine 2.0 Fri, 03/09/2018 - 22:36 Permalink

Kid I had asked to help me do chores on Saturday, bailed. On the other hand, a neighbor, in his 70s. helped me take down a trash tree that had intrusive roots. Cost? Free. We did it together, it was a fun project! He knows so much more than I do and he got to get out of his house and I got to talk to someone and get out of mine. Win/win. We both met a new neighbor who moved down from Seattle. Everyone is looking for a cheaper, quieter place to live. I am still planning on renting out my place and living in an RV for at least a year.