Are You Ready For The Next Rally In Silver?

Are You Ready For The Next Rally In Silver? 

Written by Craig Hemke, Sprott Money News

 

COMEX silver prices are largely unchanged year-to-date, despite a falling U.S. dollar and historically bullish CoT structure. So today we ask, are you ready for the next rally?

If the title of this post sounds familiar, it should. We posed a similar question regarding gold back in December, and you can review those posts here:

• https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/another-tradable-...

• https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/are-you-ready-for...

Those forecasts of an early 2018 rally in gold prices turned out quite well, as COMEX gold bottomed near $1,240 on December 12 and then rallied to $1,365 on January 25. That's almost exactly 10% in about six weeks.

Well, here we are in March of 2018, and it appears that the next COMEX metal to rally will be silver. We wrote about the basis of this idea last week. Here's the link if you missed it:https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/the-comex-silver-...

In short, the three primary drivers of this rally will be continuing weakness in the U.S. dollar, generally rising commodity prices and the aforementioned Commitment of Traders structure that recently showed the Large Speculators in COMEX silver to be NET short for the first time in nearly 15 years.

As you know by now, the COMEX silver "market" is very likely THE most manipulated in the world, given its relatively small size and the dominant, monopolistic positions held by a few major banks. See below:

Thus, one can logically deduce that a market structure of hedge funds and managed money accounts moving NET short, while The Banks move toward NET long, is a pretty reliable indicator that a rally is coming. The four most recent periods of a similar CoT structure are summarized below:

What will be your cue that this rally in COMEX silver is underway? Watch the direction of price as it interacts with the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Both are found near the key resistance level of $17. Thus, any move up and through $17 will set off a chain reaction of Large Speculator short-covering and long-buying. This huge amount of NET long addition will be what drives price back toward the January highs and beyond.

In December, we forecast the most recent rally in COMEX gold and asked if you were prepared to take advantage. We ask the same question today in COMEX silver. Are you prepared for the next rally in COMEX silver? If not, perhaps today would be an excellent time to add to your stack.

 

Are You Ready For The Next Rally In Silver? 

Written by Craig Hemke, Sprott Money News

 

Check out these other articles by our contributors:

Super-Duper-Irrational Exuberance - Keith Weiner (13/03/2018)

“People are going backwards here.” - Eric Sprott on The Jobs Report (Weekly Wrap-up, March 9, 2018)Mr. President, If We Don’t Have Gold, We Don’t Have a Country - Stewart Dougherty (08/03/2018)
Silver to Gold Ratio - Gary Christenson (08/03/2018)

Comments

gmak Wed, 03/14/2018 - 06:52 Permalink

Broken clock. Twice a day. blah blah blah.

 

You're basing this on the assumption that the $17 price is the trigger for buy-stops. My question is: Why aren't the algos mining this for beaucoup de bucks? They don't have any emotional negativity regarding PMs. If there was money to be made running stops, they certainly are the masters, no?

johnduncan78 gmak Wed, 03/14/2018 - 07:19 Permalink

The fear porn so readily broadcast by the likes of Sprott, Maloney, and so many others has run it's course. Here in Columbus Oh that train has left the station. I sell au/ag. Market is dead. I currently have a couple rolls left of 999 and can't even get spot. Gold isn't much better. Just 4 or 5 years ago I was selling 40 to 50,000 a month. Now less than a grand. The market is definitely manipulated and it is just ridiculous. As long as we can pring money and that is for MANY more years, silver and gold will stay around where they are now. I think the parameters are gold 13-1400 and silver 16-18. Been doing this since 1971 and after the debacle with Prudential/nelson and bunker Hunt and that collapse, it is just history repeated.......................

In reply to by gmak

DeadFred johnduncan78 Wed, 03/14/2018 - 09:21 Permalink

Sprott makes a case for how it could go and I agree with him but a trigger event will need to happen to cause it. The COT positions are one indicator while another is the aura of negativity in the comments below (and in your customers). ZH, once the home of "Silver Bitchez!" is now forlorn on PMs. What will be the trigger? Will there ever be a trigger? Who's to say? The move into blockchain commented on below is one possibility. I'm watching politics and waiting for the first arrests. What will the DOJ's IG report say? I'm sure this will bring as large a cry of 'will never happen' as the idea that silver will ever rally but the fact is that there are over 18,000 sealed indictments on the books when there were only 400 in October (normal being less than 1,000)

In reply to by johnduncan78

toocrazy2yoo Wed, 03/14/2018 - 07:28 Permalink

Silver for film, not needed anymore. For screens, either. Industrially, for what do we use silver for unrecoverable purposes anymore? Film and screens that silver went into the landfills, silver mirrors, too. So to what goes silver?

DarkPurpleHaze Wed, 03/14/2018 - 07:41 Permalink

But...but...you've stated on numerous ad nauseam occasions emphatically you believe the COT's are NOT credible data. Rigged paper and skewed/misleading etc, right???

Yet you are NOW using them two weeks in a row to show that they and you are now somewhat credible by selectively using (desperately hoping) you come out looking right about any of this???

Dude...silver is stuck at $16 and gold at $1300 for how long now and you're clinging to COT's like they actually matter in any meaningful way?

What do you think will happen to the price of PM's once (or IF) NK denuclearization is achieved? Risk off, stronger $ and lower PM prices.

And then there's this giant dung beetle-like turdball aka Kinesis.

Lol, seriously?

A sucker is born every minute? You can only hope.

Introducing Kinesis - A Possible Monetary Revolution

By Turd Ferguson | Tuesday, March 6, 2018 at 12:43 pm

Earlier today, we had the opportunity to catch up with Tom Coughlin, CEO of Allocated Bullion Exchange and Kinesis Ltd, a new gold-backed currency being unveiled in 2018. Tom was joined by our old pal, Andrew Maguire, and together they were able to explain how and why Kinesis can provide a GLOBAL MONEYARY REVOLUTION."

"But it's much more than that.

Kinesis brings the possibility of hope and prosperity to billions of people worldwide who have been impoverished by the current, debt-based monetary system. All the while, physical gold and silver flowing into Kinesis should provide an extraordinary stress for The Banker's current fractional reserve and paper derivative pricing scheme.

This sure sounds like a WIN-WIN to me." 

~~~~~~~~~~~

Seriously? How sappy was all of that?

Billions of people worldwide? Maguire's latest scheme partnership will lift BILLIONS OUT OF POVERTY AND CHALLENGE DECADES OF CENTRAL BANK ACTIVITIES?

Lol, c'mon!

You're an unabashed and obvious shill or simply a fool if you actually believe (and continue to shill) the idea that a shiny new Andrew Maguire ploy can...

"...provide a global monetary revolution."

Are you F'n serious?

Or is this just another case of what I've been saying....you'll say ANYTHING for a dollar (including a new website you have no intention of providing/2 years?) even if it's obvious B.S. like the above Maguire partnership scheme. It's laughable yet par for the course

 

Remember this beauty?

#Hot

#Explosive

#HistoricSummer...aka as blatant and admitted BS by you via Maguire...again.

(Which you deleted btw. If not, provide the link and prove me wrong publicly.)

#ICanVouch4AndrewMaguire/lol

#RockBottom/Exposed

#FakeAnalysis

 

Bopper09 Wed, 03/14/2018 - 07:47 Permalink

When silver companies, like First Majestic, start selling their silver on the blockchain, which is in the works, there will be no need for the comex, and therefore no manipulation.

meterman Dumpster Elite Thu, 03/15/2018 - 09:16 Permalink

Dumpster - Sounds like you may have purchased your silver about the same time I did. $33/oz. I gave up last year and sold every coin(all 3000 of them). I love reading what the PM IDIOTS post here on Zero Value - Sorry - Zero Hedge.

They all get sanctimonious about "holding" silver and waiting until the price reaches the "HUCKSTER" predicted $1000 to $30000/oz. when they can sell and make a huge profit for their 11 coins.

F*** ALL HUCKSTERS

In reply to by Dumpster Elite