S&P Tops 2,800 As Goldman Says "No Place To Hide"

With the dollar dumping on the double whammy of CPI and Rex Tillerson; stocks, bonds, and gold are all surging as stocks open. The S&P 500 topped 2,800 for the first time since Feb 2nd...

The dollar was smacked down...

And Stocks, Bonds, & Gold are surging...

And as Goldman Sachs writes, as the macro backdrop has evolved, so has "safe haven" performance.

After initially moving together during the bond sell-off beginning in September, Treasuries have decoupled from gold, the Yen and the Swiss Franc. This is in contrast to the positive correlations we observed in early 2017, when we highlighted volatility differences.

No safe havens - and no assets or equity sectors - have had a positive beta to the VIX recently, and few have had a positive beta to 10-year yields (notably, equity cyclicals have had a positive beta to 10y yields), leading to diversification desperation.

We think it likely that finding effective hedges in the cash space will continue to be difficult going forward as rates rise and Goldilocks fades, and that active risk management via derivative overlay trades will become more important for portfolios.


Ouagadoudou philipat Tue, 03/13/2018 - 11:10 Permalink

Inflation would only rise for the bad reason (ie too much cash chasing too few stuff). If the fed is indeed behind the curve then the dollar is going a lot lower because rate increases are due to people dumping bonds and getting a portion of the cash out of the dollar. Rates increase are just here to try to offset the sell off. Well that’s What I get from too much time on ZH 

In reply to by philipat

philipat Ouagadoudou Tue, 03/13/2018 - 13:05 Permalink

Yup, this response means that means that the "markets" have concluded that inflation is NOT due to a strong economy but too much debt forcing rates higher as buyers (now including China) retract.

BUT that isn't consistent with the MOPE strategy? Does that mean we are now in for a period of actual honesty about the economic situation and markets? Has the Fed actually finally lost control? I doubt it. Hence my original question....

In reply to by Ouagadoudou

GoysRUs18 Tue, 03/13/2018 - 10:23 Permalink

Hey Tylers. Kindly remind your followers of this Post ..

Goldman's Shocking Capitulation: The Buy-The-Dip Era Is Dead, "This Is A Genuine Regime Change"


Now i only got a degree in journalism but i ran a site like this and repeated the same conclusion over and over for years on end with the opposite wouldn't it be some type of journalistic integrity to drop your source? If at the very least nobody with a brain gives a rats ass what GS says ??? I mean i get 10 x more out of a guy like Gregg Manarino everday and hes just in his basement . Or have you always been part of the tribe thats designated to lead your followers to slaughter all along ??

The Real Tony Tue, 03/13/2018 - 11:48 Permalink

No place to hide huh? Like I stated late last year right here on ZeroHedge the most profitable trade of 2018 would be to short the Canadian dollar. That's where to hide, Poloz just spewed his spiel of "we will never raise interest rates ever again because we know all the Pakis and Punjabs in Brampton and Mississauga, Ontario Canada will lose "their" home/homes". Well there you have it straight from the horse's mouth and the reason. Poloz will make you very wealthy.

kavabanga Tue, 03/13/2018 - 12:36 Permalink

Finding the price action, particularly Friday's gap and go run, highly unusual. 
We're either 1. Still creating a pattern, or 2. Breaking out. And it's not option 2. 
SCREEN https://www.tradingview.com/i/flVgI6o0/
It doesn't get much more interesting than this for TA folks. 

Like most, until this afternoon I was looking at the possibility of a symmetrical triangle or descending triangle . But Friday's move above the previous Lower High eliminates both of those possibilities, and also I have serious doubts that this is a 'breakout' of those patterns. 

I believe we're still carving out the shape of this correction phase and I need to figure out the pattern because with a range this size, there's loads of profit to be made. I need a 3rd point of the pattern in order to narrow it down and I believe we may have put in our swing high today. 

- Dow is about to flop 
- Nasdaq has a divergent high 
- Russell showing some strength actually, long overdue. Would be nice to see small caps outperform. 
SPY is the behemoth I'm interested in. 

With Friday's price action, the volume trend fits well for an ascending triangle .