JFK-Trump Analog: On The Eve Of A Big Rollover

Via Global Macro Monitor,

You need to sit down for this one.

The JFK-Trump S&P500 analog is only three bps apart on Day 338 after election day.  That is only a one S&P500 point difference, folks.  Absolutely stunning.

We had almost given up on the analog after the Goldilocks wage and employment data last Friday.

The two S&P indices have been tighter only twice, on Day 38 and Day 320.

The Night Before The Big Roll

Today is significant in that it is Day 338, which marked the eve of the big rollover of the S&P500 in 1962.

Current headlines also look similar to those in 1962.  Inflationary pressures leading to a growth scare.   Big steel and nuclear missiles in the spotlight.

Other factors are at play today, including politics, especially after last night’s Democratic win in Deep Red Steel Country.

Then there’s today appointment of Larry Kudlow as head of the N.E.C. to replace Gary Cohn.  Kudlow uses the JFK economic model as a template for economic policy in his latest book, JFK and the Reagan Revolution.   Oddly,  JFK never had the chance to cut marginal taxes.

See here for background on the analog.

Right Here, Right Now

It is now make or break time for the analog.

If it is a true tracker, the S&P500 should rollover hard in the next week or two.

Stay tuned...