"It's not different this time"... in fact it's exactly the same! The same level of exuberant retail 'buying the top', the same level of 'nothing can stop us now', the same level of 'what recession?', and most importantly the same level of insane valuations for the mega-tech leaders...
Mom-and-pop are all-in...
The broad market's Price-to-Sales is at record highs...
But none of that matters because FANG-type stocks have been leading, charging, incessantly bouncing to ever-increasing Bezosian record highs with all chatter of bubbles (and historically-received wisdom) being shrugged off by the ubiquitous "you just don't get it" narrative.
As Nomura's Bilal Hafeez notes, one of the challenges of identifying bubbles is that too often we use the playbook of the previous bubble.
So in the 2000s, we became averse to equities and all things “new economy” thanks to the scars of the dot-com bust. What we didn’t realise was that the credit markets and “old economy” (real estate and commodities) were becoming bubbles. It didn’t help that we underestimated the size these assets (and liabilities) as many were “off-balance sheet” or hidden in obscure financial securities.
The same can be said about today.
We are scarred by the banking crisis of 2008 and European sovereign crisis of 2010-12 that we are obsessing about potential bubbles in credit, banking and sovereign markets. Meanwhile, we don’t apply the same scrutiny to the markets and assets we have escaped to.
So what are these assets? Simply put, it would be data and platforms.
So there it is - it's not different this time - and we are right there again, at the inflection point of hubris and regret. FANG-type stocks' valuations are as extreme as they were at the peak of the DotCom bubble (which no one argues was a bubble).
What happens next?