Silver Speculators Have Never Been This Short

Authored by John Rubino via,

Friday’s commitment of traders (COT) report for gold and silver offered more of the same. Which is to say the gold futures action was boring and the silver action was strange and exciting.

Starting with gold, the large speculators – who, remember, tend to be wrong at big turning points – got a little less optimistic, while commercials – who tend to be right at big turning points – did the opposite. But both groups are still in unfavorable territory, with the speculators too long and the commercials too short.

Looked at in a vacuum this is not good short-term news for gold.

Silver is a whole different story, with speculators going aggressively net short, something very seldom seen, and commercials almost in balance, which is also unusual.

Looked at in a vacuum, this is hyper-bullish.

But of course the games futures traders play aren’t all that matters.

Between trade wars, massive ongoing government deficits and spiking stock market volatility, the reasons for owning safe haven assets like gold and silver are both multiplying and gaining urgency.

Which brings us to that damn $1,360 gold resistance level. As you can see on the next chart, since 2014 this has been where gold rallies go to die. The past week’s nice pop brought the metal back to within striking distance, once again raising the question of who feels compelled to sell before 1400 and why.

One of these days gold will blow right through on its way to some much higher pocket of resistance. And based on the tide of chaos that seems to be engulfing the world (see, for instance, David Stockman’s latest on US politics), it might be wise to start acting like the next leg up is now imminent rather than just inevitable.

A year is coming (or maybe has arrived) when financial reporters doing their annual winners and losers articles will be shocked to find a list headed by precious metal miners, silver bullion and gold bullion.




DillyDilly Four chan Sun, 03/25/2018 - 13:19 Permalink

Just remember to draw a nice pirate map with "X marks the spot" on it... That way, you're great great great grandchildren (who will probably be MARCHING FOR GUN CONTROL), will know where to find it...


I'm not sure exactly what I'm gonna do with mine... Lately, I've been studying the map of MIDDLE EARTH, so that I can make the trek and cast it into the fiery pit of Mt. DOOM...

In reply to by Four chan

ProstoDoZiemi BaBaBouy Sun, 03/25/2018 - 12:38 Permalink

My friends and I used to hustle all the awesome cards when we were kids and then it clicked how over supply of all these manufacturers would make no sense for us to hold cards for the long term, so for the short term we made money for stupid childish boy shit... skateboards, bmx bikes, video games, etc. overall we had a lot of fun.

In reply to by BaBaBouy

Give Me Some Truth two hoots Sun, 03/25/2018 - 12:25 Permalink

Re: silver price 3 months from now.

I agree. Silver and gold bounce up and down in a small range, but never are allowed to burst through the top end of this range. Keeping gold and silver “contained” is probably more important than ever with all of this incredible money printing, huge surges in the national debt, massive increases in government spending, and all of this neocon Sabre rattling. The printing press must be protected especially now. This means that gold and silver cannot be allowed to scream any warning message. Plus, suppressing these prices -and keeping sentiment for monetary metals atrocious - is the one thing they KNOW they can do. Easily. Whenever they want or need to.

In reply to by two hoots

vaporland BaBaBouy Sun, 03/25/2018 - 11:46 Permalink

when SHTF, you gonna eat silver bars or just throw them at the mob that wants to break into your house, kill you and take your stuff?

if we're giving rocks to students to throw at psychotic gunmen, why not just give them silver and gold (or tungsten) bars?

I'd sell that silver now and buy cans of Chef BoyArdee - you can eat them or throw them.

edit: for all the downvoters, check out the link above ( to learn what happens when SHTF IRL and there's "money" but no food.

hint: you get robbed and starve or just die

In reply to by BaBaBouy

Give Me Some Truth BaBaBouy Sun, 03/25/2018 - 12:52 Permalink

Today’s conventional wisdom:

“Paper bugs” (or “digit bugs”) are ... wise. “Gold bugs” and “silver bugs” are ... insects that should be squashed, and “kooks.”

Money backed by something real, that was in favor through almost all of recorded history (until recently) is now a concept to be ridiculed. Now, Monopoly money and money that grows on a tree in the backyard of The Fed ... is an idea enlightened people know is sacrosanct.

In reply to by BaBaBouy

Give Me Some Truth theBBD Sun, 03/25/2018 - 13:23 Permalink

Look around, read a few recent headlines .... The reasons for attacking gold and silver even more aggressively and brazenly are expanding by the day.

Remember, they attack gold and silver only to protect the all-important fiat printing press - which has NEVER been more vital to them and their lifestyles. As the printing press is ramped up even more, so too will the efforts to contain/cap the prices of gold and silver.

This is my prediction.

In reply to by theBBD

Dragon HAwk cstu7011 Sun, 03/25/2018 - 12:57 Permalink

Everybody sees one deer standing by the road and thinks god i could feed my family for a week on that   they don't realize a hundred people are planning on eating that same deer, and once the deer is either shot or learns to run  at the first snap of a twig, 100 people are not going to see any more of that deer..

In reply to by cstu7011

indygo55 Dragon HAwk Sun, 03/25/2018 - 13:49 Permalink

Well then they can use the same gun in the same field and shoot wild pigs. They are everywhere. They reproduce 2 or 3 times a year and they have like 12 babies. I shot a pig and three of her 5 month old or so babies and a few of the others got away. When I cleaned the mom she was carrying 12 more young. That's a great source of fresh protein.

In reply to by Dragon HAwk

Ajax-1 vaporland Sun, 03/25/2018 - 12:44 Permalink

With the exception of the evil George Soros, the only Joos that were able to avoid WW2 concentration camps and escape Nazi Germany were those that had Gold/Silver to pay off/bribe the SS. However, I agree that it never a good idea to have all of your eggs in one basket. Canned goods, guns and ammo and a defendable fall back position in the country should be part of any preppers plan.

In reply to by vaporland

Montana Cowboy vaporland Sun, 03/25/2018 - 15:33 Permalink

First, I am a stacker. But I don't think gold/silver will ever become money. It is an asset, and a rather perfect asset. But you are on a slippery slope if your SHTF plan relies on metal to buy food and necessities. I don't think metal ever was money. When the precious metal was removed from US money, the money continued to function as money and the metals did not. Given, gold was controlled for a while, but not silver.

I have tried to make the same point before, but, as we see, you will get down-voted like hell because to most stackers, it is religion. They are in the Church of Gold and Silver where facts don't matter. We don't even need to speculate. Just look to Venezuela where that "gold/silver is money" mantra isn't working. With gold and silver in your pocket, the only thing you will get is your brains beat in. Just because it works on a spreadsheet doesn't mean it will work when the SHTF. Remember there is nobody with any economic interest in opposing those high priests (miners and coin dealers) in the Church of Gold and Silver. Their claims are free and unopposed to reach fantasy levels.

One of the components of a SHTF scenario is food shortages. If it isn't available, it doesn't matter what you have to buy it with. Again, look at Venezuela. The only food you can ever buy is a producer's excess. He has friends, animals, family, and neighbors to feed before anything becomes available for purchase. You better have a Plan B for your food. Gold and silver will leave you to starve like everyone else.

In reply to by vaporland

Buckaroo Banzai BaBaBouy Sun, 03/25/2018 - 11:47 Permalink

The gold:silver ratio is currently sitting at 81. Since 1915, the ratio has never spent any meaningful amount of time above 80, with two exceptions: a five-year stretch between 1938 and 1943 where it topped at 97, and a three-year stretch from 1990 to 1993 where it topped out at 99.

It's been 25 years since 1993 so maybe we're due for a dose of that kind of anomalous price action on silver. But barring that, we should see one of two things happen in the immediate future: a strong rally in the price of silver, or a big move down in the price of gold--or, some combination of the two.

Also, one other thing: If the Large Specs are net short, and the Commecials are net short, who, exactly, is net long? Presumably the Small Specs? That isn't comforting to me because aren't Small Specs the perennial bagholders?

In reply to by BaBaBouy