Authored by John Coumarianos via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
Are we in a depression?
The question seems absurd.
There has been GDP growth since 2009 and some mild inflation to go with it. In fact, this is the second longest economic expansion on record.
As Robert Shiller said over the weekend (though in the context of warning against complacency), “[i]f the economy manages to expand for 16 more months, the United States will have set a record.” Unemployment is the lowest in history, nothing like the 17% we had by a U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics estimate a decade after the stock market crash in 1929 and the average of 18% in the 1930s. House prices have come screaming back across the nation. The stock market has increased by more than 15% annually beginning in 2009. And even middle-class wages have shown signs of picking up lately.
Depression-Era Demographics In Some Exurbs
And yet, even overlooking the opioid epidemic and the 42 million Americans on food stamps (happily down from nearly 48 million in 2013), there are disturbing signs around the country that all is not well.
For example, a recent article in the New York Times by Robert Gebeloff focusing on Hunterdon County in New Jersey shows that many suburban and exurban Northeast and Midwest counties have stopped booming. More people are dying than being born or moving in through immigration or migration. Hunterdon County, 60 miles from New York City, is the sixth richest county nationally with a median household income is over $100,000. But young people are having fewer children, and the recession-stalled migration patterns are only resuming in certain parts of the country. According to Geberloff, “Some of the once-fastest-growing counties in the United States are growing no more, and nationwide, the birthrate has dropped to levels not seen since the Great Depression.” Since a recent peak in 2007, lifetime births per woman in the U.S. is down 16%.
Because deaths are outnumbering births in so many outer-ring counties, flummoxing demographers waiting for a trend reversal, migration is crucial. But lower immigration puts stress on Northeastern suburban counties losing population to the South and West. And while more people living in cities may lower long-distance commuting and urban decay, “population stagnation in places that had been growing will most likely bring its own sets of problems, including pressures on real estate values and eventual shrinking of political representation.”
While births have declined, migration within the U.S. has resumed to pre-recession levels. However, the trend is toward Florida, Texas, and Arizona, which have all seen population inflows. Rural parts of the country have been struggling with these demographic problems for a while now, but Gebeloff’s article shows that they are hitting what have been much more well-off areas now. In Hunterdon County, a 460-acre Merck campus sits abandoned, and enrollment in some school districts is down 20%.
Patio Man Still Thrives
But if outer ring Northeastern suburbs are in jeopardy, that’s not the situation everywhere. In 2002, when it looked like exurbia or life in what he called “Sprinkler Cities” was the future, David Brooks wrote a column for the Weekly Standard called “Patio Man and the Sprawl People” partly about how urban types were annexing old line, inner ring suburbs, while more traditional suburbanites were claiming the outer rings where they could enjoy peaceful patios, happy kids, slender friends and “the massive barbecue grill towering over it all.”
Now, it seems, the outer rings are struggling mightily, but perhaps only in the Northeast and Midwest. In other words, Brooks’s 2002 analysis somehow holds up today. This is how he described the trend in defending suburbia, or the movement from old suburbia to new suburbia — “The truth, of course, is that suburbia is not a retreat from gritty American life, it is American life. Already, suburbanites make up about half of the country’s population (while city people make up 28 percent and rural folk make up the rest), and American gets more suburban every year.” And they make up 53% of America now, according to Jed Kolko in a post for the statistically oriented news site, FiveThirtyEight. Moreover, in a 2017 post, Kolko wrote, “The suburbanization of America marches on,” as he noted the fast growth of Southern and Western metro areas, including Cap Coral-Fort Myers, FL, Provo-Orem, UT, and Austin-Round Rock, TX. Kolko also highlighted educated rural areas and the Pacific Northwest as growing regions. Those include Olympia and Spokane in Washington and Eugene and Salem in Oregon. Boise also made his list for growth of metro areas with 250,000 or more people.
The big population losers, unsurprisingly, have been rural areas. And while the “urban revival” is real, according to Kolko, it has mostly been for rich, educated people, in particular hyperurban neighborhoods rather than broad-based return to city living. Patio Man continues to thrive – just not in Hunterdon County, New Jersey.
Overall, the country is hardly in a depression, but things are grimmer than many think in some surprising places.
Comments
Are we in a depression?
When have we not been in a depression?
Stormy's deep deep depression swallowed Trump.
In reply to Are we in a depression?… by Mr_Potatohead
Don't tell JHK about Patio Man
In reply to Stormy's deep deep… by SethPoor
The growing wealth inequality of Europe visualized:
http://thesoundingline.com/map-of-the-day-visualizing-growing-inequalit…
In reply to Don't tell JHK about Patio… by cossack55
.....how rapidly is Europe being filled with welfare recipients?
In a depression since 2009 and obviously so.
In reply to The growing wealth… by Four Star
If actual inflation is deducted from GDP, we've been in a depression for a long time.
In reply to adf by DownWithYogaPants
The most massive mis-allocation of capital in history tends to result in such things. What we now see.
BOOM
In reply to If actual inflation is… by laser
A dual depression of an advanced fake society. Financial and Mental, and at times a combination like when someone spends their savings or takes out a loan hoping for some boost of happiness to their life and they end up with another thing taking up space or an improvement that last just long enough to tell everyone about how wonderful it is mostly finding out no one gives a shit and now the search goes on for the next big lift for my life. On and on until they figure out life is much like Schopenhauer described, even more now as their is lots of time, less money to do little that rarely excites them anymore, FANG depression. They may even want a war for excitement? There is much sadness, depression, anger and flu in this society. Stay away, find peace, drink.
In reply to The most massive mis… by JRobby
Are we in a depression? Are those decaying homes and empty storefronts a fucking illusion?
Amazon and infinitely replicable virtual entertainment replacing physical ball games and actual material consumption? And still losing money?
You fuckers must have a sand necklace and an asshole crown if you think we are not in a depression.
In reply to A dual depression of an… by two hoots
58,000 homeless people in LA. Hoovervilles come to mind?
In reply to Are we in a depression? Are… by D503
95% of muslim filth are on welfare ....
In reply to adf by DownWithYogaPants
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018/03/paedophile-muslim-screamed-alla…
In reply to 95% of muslim filth are on… by charlewar
How is letting millions of immigrants who won't or can't work going to fix this? Lower housing prices and rents will. Perhaps if we let the free market determine interest rates?
In reply to The growing wealth… by Four Star
deep deep depression sounds like a hurricane... Hurricane Stormy has a nice ring to it.
In reply to Stormy's deep deep… by SethPoor
Stormy Hurricane more descriptive.
Hmmmm I can't decide ..
In reply to deep deep depression sounds… by Mr_Potatohead
💤💤💤💤💤💤😈 who cares but a few libtard buffoons....
In reply to deep deep depression sounds… by Mr_Potatohead
like Monica swallowed Bill?
In reply to Stormy's deep deep… by SethPoor
Everything is being faked right now. Government statistics are being faked, corporate balance sheets are being faked, the fake News liberal media spew nothing but garbage and propaganda. I can argue that we never got out of the last recession and are actually in the depression.
In reply to Are we in a depression?… by Mr_Potatohead
You are absolutely correct. We now live in a totally Fake World. This has been a Fake Recovery and a Fake Stock Market promoted by a Fake Media. Even our government is Fake.
In reply to Everything is being faked… by lester1
Ah, yeah. All is fake. After I watched the fake news, I wanted to bite Stormy's fake tits with my fake teeth and see if she'd fake an orgasm.
In reply to You are absolutely correct… by wdg
and you bigloser, smell like a meatbot.
chew on this ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUfYgjIJUps
In reply to Ah, yeah. All is fake. After… by bigloser
If you counted everything the way it was when Clinton took office, the economy is 30% smaller than in 2007 and unemployment is 16-20%.
In reply to Everything is being faked… by lester1
Food stamps are the present day bread-line and soup kitchen.
In reply to If you counted everything… by duo
All fake
All a skim or just outright theft.
ALL
In reply to Everything is being faked… by lester1
A: yes.
In reply to Are we in a depression?… by Mr_Potatohead
Reading this makes me in a depression.
In reply to Are we in a depression?… by Mr_Potatohead
The Big D started in Y2K and powerdived in ought7 with all that many trillions of bogus fiat dumped via globalization central banking. 90 million unemployed Americans is deep D. That was just the first inning.
In reply to Are we in a depression?… by Mr_Potatohead
Exactly correct. What is sad is with the DotCom bust, the market actually kind of self corrected because bad investments were wiped out, as they should be. There were not huge bailouts due to TBTF for the most part. Fast forward a handful of years, and there are no "real" markets anymore. Everything is TBTF, and corruption and lawlessness rule EVERYTHING. We have been on a parabolic drop since the 90's, and the descent steepness is geometrically accelerating since the repeal of Glas-Steagal, and is getting steeper all the time.
In reply to The Big D started in Y2K and… by MrSteve
Do not trust David Brooks or anything he writes. It is a forked tongue, hidden agenda thing.
In reply to Are we in a depression?… by Mr_Potatohead
Everything is being driven by a rapidly changing demographic.
That's a whole lot of mental masterbation, nothing more.
Allow me to simplify it for you motherfucker. Hundreds of trillions in paper/digital claims have been unlawfully issued by corrupt fuckers. All these claims are just beginning to seek out real assets that do not exist.
Know a tradable skill? You better motherfucker.
In the meantime...
"Full Faith and Credit"
Replace full faith and credit, man.....with
"Roll the motherfucking guillotines, otherwise nothing changes"
In reply to That's a whole lot of mental… by LawsofPhysics
Patience, FreeShitter, patience...
In reply to Replace full faith and… by FreeShitter
Running out of it man...
In reply to Patience, FreeShitter,… by Mr_Potatohead
I have NO Faith in USD.
In reply to That's a whole lot of mental… by LawsofPhysics
No faith in USD?
Time to try some LSD!
In reply to I have NO Faith in USD. by Seasmoke
Is inflation mild when it's running @ %3-5 a year?
when they omit food and energy costs for policy reasons, you should triple the official stats offered for sheep’s consumption.
In reply to Is inflation mild when it's… by shizzledizzle
The 1st of the month is coming up, and if you're in the bottom 40% it's time to pay your rent to landlord Shlomo.
I feel like I am in a depression, everyone around me is driving new cars. Whatever, I love my 10 year old Corolla best car I ever owned.
Yeah, but they're making huge monthly payments on those cars, but I've never had a car payment and with the difference I've been able to buy productive assets as well as a few stackers (lost in a boating accident a few months ago of course).
In reply to I feel like I am in a… by aliens is here
88 chevy pick up ,nobody ask to borrow it and then wreck it unlike others ive owned
In reply to I feel like I am in a… by aliens is here
don't let it get to ya, bubba. you're right, and they're wrong
In reply to I feel like I am in a… by aliens is here
"Migration is crucial"
How terrifying! Yes, without massive inflows of migration and new debt slaves and government dependents, assets held by the 0.01% would lose value, houses might even become affordable, jobs could open up, wages would rise... The bankers' nightmare.
It also stops downward pressure on wages. Wages are the one thing the owner classes focus on keeping down.
In reply to "Migration is crucial"… by atx_0110
With enough wages, especially enough to save on, more people would just be able to stop working "early" and with even fewer workers there'd be even more upward pressure on wages.
The oligarch class has us pinned down, verily I say this unto you.
In reply to It also stops downward… by dirty fingernails
Trumpmerica
American life has been reduced to a TV show.
America is bankrupt and plagued by an amoral elite.
Americans are intellectually disabled, adrift in a juvenile fantasy world.
American workers are invisible and disrespected.
Our society is permeated with crippleware.
We are diminished by this knowledge.
serious question. how much of US GDP is based on the procurement, distribution, and storage of dick pics (social media)?
gross domestic penis?
In reply to serious question. how much… by ted41776
All the article needed to say was "Population growth is necessary to sustain any ponzi." Now you know why the elite debt ponzi creators are getting worried.
Pagination