'Global Synchronous Recovery' Narrative Crushed As EU, US Data Diverge

The chart below shows the Citi Economic Surprise Index for the US, compared against the broader G10 index, and the Europe index.

The outperformance of US positive data surprises is stark... highlighting the dramatically non-synchornized nature of global growth.

CitiFX senior trader Andrew Grosso warned that we need to pay attention to the short-term on the US data front (with next week's payrolls, AHE and ISM all on the agenda). He expects that the time between April and July will be pivotal for the economy in terms of data suggesting the USD could outperform in the short-term.

However, the correlation between EURUSD and the spread between EU and US economic surprises, suggests EUR strength in the short-term.

 

However, the relative 'strength' of US economic data surprises has been driven by 'survey' data (think 'hope'), while all but labor are now weaker than before Trump was elected...

 

Or to simplify that chart...'Hard' data is back at pre-Trump levels and now 'soft' survey data is crashing back to reality too...

 

And as economic data surprises disappoint, so US economic growth expectations have collapsed...

 

So the question heading into Q2 is - can 'soft' survey-based hope keep the economic data aggregates positive enough? Or is the reflexive relationship between stocks (now falling) and expectations (now falling) gathering enough pace to spoil the party?

And what happens if The Fed backs away from its rate-hiking plan?

Comments

GUS100CORRINA Fri, 03/30/2018 - 05:06 Permalink

'Global Synchronous Recovery' Narrative Crushed As EU, US Data Diverge

My response: US is doing the BEST because of President TRUMP's policy actions to date which number in the 100s!!!! President TRUMP has gotten rid of more job killing, business killing regulations than any POTUS is history.

In addition, unlike the EU, President TRUMP is a champion for innovation and entrepreneurship. 

GOD BLESS the POTUS and his team.

NidStyles Arnold Fri, 03/30/2018 - 06:29 Permalink

Gotta buy Snapchat away from Facebook even if it’s done through a collective effort. Gotta rip all of the camera and recording tech away from these companies. Use this crash to start doing that.

Buying these tools is the only way we are going to effectively stop these assholes. 

Snapchat, Periscope, Instagram and etc. The only way to stop the intelligence apparatus is to buy it out and shut their BS down with voting rights. Robinhood works for you poor folks. Everyone has a smartphone already. Time to start using it like a weapon. Free yourselves, and quit being afraid of these chickenshits.

In reply to by Arnold

snblitz The Real Tony Fri, 03/30/2018 - 14:16 Permalink
  • Put all the US auto workers in a room.
  • Buy exclusively imported cars
  • How many workers in that room still have a job?

It is not so much tariffs as the choice to buy imported rather than domestic.

Is it better for the US economy to provide jobs to those US workers in that room, or to foreign workers?

Those US auto workers, when they have a job and income, what do they spend their income on?  US food, US housing, US energy.  They even buy cars.

This is called the multiplier effect.

Long version: https://www.finitespaces.com/2018/02/15/taxes-and-trade-wars/

In reply to by The Real Tony

roddy6667 Fri, 03/30/2018 - 06:28 Permalink

All this cheerleading for the economy is silly. The biggest buyer of stocks since 2009 has been the corporations themselves. It's a massive pump, soon to be followed by a massive dump. Corporate earnings are dismally low. The big numbers in the stock market are a cause for alarm, not congratulations for MAGA.

The government's version of the unemployment rate is a fraud. There have never been so many able bodied, working age people out of the job market. And it's not from Boomers retiring. People are working longer now, not retiring earlier. They don't have the money to retire. 

If the POTUS is responsible for all this, blessings are not in order.

gwar5 Fri, 03/30/2018 - 06:37 Permalink

MAGA

 

The perception change is underfoot is enough to stimulate activity. Obama Crashed the markets before he was inaugurated because he is a socialist. Opposite true with Trump, last hope for planet Earth. 

MEGA. Make Earth Great Again!

 

OCnStiggs Fri, 03/30/2018 - 06:51 Permalink

Who came up with the "Global Synchronous Recovery" babble anyway and why should anyone believe it has any merit whatsoever? It sounds like another Keynesian Elitist phony-baloney tag to cover the Elitist's true aims.

The E.U. is trying to run a Socialist platform while masquerading as a democratic organization. Their trade rules and agreements are repressive and decidedly not free trade. Same with China and many other places in the world. While the US stands up to those artificial trade agreements and tries to unshackle itself from stifling regulation and financially unsupportable union agreements, the rest of the world is going to have to play catch-up.

As much as the Progressive Elitist ideologues wish to stomp their feet and run to their safe spaces -or stop my ability to express my own "free speech," the world is changing, and that is largely due to Donald Trump. He is not the reason, he is simply the catalyst.

All the felch-sucking Soros "useful idiots" sitting in their parents basements in their underwear who will attack me would rather see the US destroyed rather than see it succeed under Trump. I got news for you... Change is unstoppable.

TrustbutVerify Fri, 03/30/2018 - 10:55 Permalink

Imagine the upside economic surprises if Americans increasingly bought America made goods.  And if Americans knew or considered that so many American "brands" are actually made overseas - and avoided them.   

Want to avoid the economic meltdown, or help try to avoid it?  Consider buying something that Americans make.  

Captain Nemo d… Fri, 03/30/2018 - 15:54 Permalink

Sometimes decoupling is debunked. Sometimes synchronous narratives get crushed. If you look at squiggly lines long enough and on different time-scales, sooner or later you will start to see patterns.