Market Volatility Jumps To 7 Year High As Global Economic Data Slumps

"There could be some fluctuations in stock market values as a result of the China trade dispute..." - The White House

Cliff...

For the first time since July, the global macro data surprise index has turned negative...

 

It was quite a week with massive swings pushing realized volatility to its highest since 2011...

 

Futures show the equity market swings best as many out of cash session hours...

 

But the cash markets all ended red on the week...

 

As Gluskin-Sheff's David Rosenberg notes, barely over 3 months into the year and already no fewer than 22 sessions with intra-day moves in the Dow of 400+ points. We had 1 all of last year. The only other time in the past have we seen so many 400 point moves bunched into such a short period -- Oct 2008 to Jan 2009.

The Dow retraced 61.8% Fib of its Wednesday panic-bid... then rebounded back to 50%...

 

The S&P traded down to its 200DMA once again...

 

Trannies tumbled to their 200DMA - today was their worst day since Brexit (2016)

 

All major index vols jumped on the week after collapsing on Wednesday...

 

All major US equity indices went red for the year again...

 

Tech and Financials tumbled back into the red for the week today...

 

All the FANGMAN stocks ended red on the week...

 

TSLA stocks and bonds squeezed higher this week but stocks over-ran bonds...

 

Treasury yields ended the week marginally higher but tumbled today as bonds were bid when stocks tanked...

 

10Y yields dropped back below 2.80% once again...

 

Despite weakness today, the dollar index ended the week higher...

 

Crude tumbled on the week as Copper and PMs largely trod water...

 

Cryptos ended the week lower once again (despite a solid jump early in the week)...

 

Finally, don't forget, there was a Black Friday before Black Monday...

Comments

Juggernaut x2 lester1 Fri, 04/06/2018 - 16:54 Permalink

Anything that happens now is just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic-  you cannot rebuild entire industries that have closed and the infrastructure to support them when you are trillions in debt and adding billions more debt every hour of every day. The US standard of living for the last 70 years- an anomaly in the history of man which occurred because we were the only industrial power to be left unscathed by WW2- cannot and will not be sustained.

In reply to by lester1

chinoslims lester1 Fri, 04/06/2018 - 17:09 Permalink

It was a trade war. It was trade capitulation to line the pockets of people like Mitch McConnell whose father-in-law literally made a living off of globalism, the shipping industry. How many more benefitted from globalism.   How many secret bank accounts do these politicians have to receive payoffs from globalists?

In reply to by lester1

Kaiser Sousa Fri, 04/06/2018 - 16:03 Permalink

aside from that totally blatant 200 plus point ramp beginning right as the "witching hour” commenced to avoid a 3% loss, its a good day when on split screen i can watch The Masters & the Dow Jones Propaganda Index do what it should be doin until it gets back to where it was in 2008 - collapse...

re-affirming how completely farcical & fraudulent the DJPI is, it should have been down at least 1000 points given the massaged & still bogus BS-BLS non-existent jobs number & the thoroughly debunked “easing of trade war” propaganda, but oh well - i guess "u can’t always get what u want…”

now i concede the floor to like minds & haters alike…

DEATH TO THE MONEYCHANGERS.

ps: u muddy-heads kneeling at the alter of Donald Chump who r allowing urselfs to be whipped into a frenzy with this “Let’s Get China” non-sense r perfect examples of why refer to this Banana Republic as "The Benighted States of Ameridumb.”

i was told a long time ago to look inward when u constantly find urself in circumstances that u deem undesirable as opposed to always seeking to blame someone or something else…

gone.

D.r. Funk spastic_colon Fri, 04/06/2018 - 16:45 Permalink

the establishment/globalist structure clearly supersurged the indexes over him, to be used for 3 possible options. the trump rally was never-ever authentically trump induced, it was the cb proxies, the losing side, those that had control of it before nov 8, as i said within days of the 16 election

In reply to by spastic_colon

TradingTroll Kaiser Sousa Fri, 04/06/2018 - 16:18 Permalink

I had to put a $5 fine on my 9 year old son to stop the whining...

 

Today was the single best trading day I have had this year.

 

For the Dow:

Elliot Waves: wave 3 was over, so we bounced into 4, up.

Trendlines: the same bounce was off a long term trendline 

Fibonacci: the Dow hit a Fibonacci target and turned around to rally

 

I guess you can learn to trade any market once you study the markets.

 

Who knew?

 

 

 

In reply to by Kaiser Sousa

walküre Kaiser Sousa Fri, 04/06/2018 - 17:40 Permalink

@Kaiser

Wish I had listened when Obama told folks to go out and buy stocks. Remember that one? 

Now Trump is basically saying to run for the exits.

Lots of propaganda and misinformation out there but when POTUS make statements on the "markets", it PAYS to listen.

They have friends and family invested in the "markets".

Enjoy the commentary of the shit show!

In reply to by Kaiser Sousa

Keltner Channel Surf Fri, 04/06/2018 - 16:04 Permalink

When bulls feel completely enshrouded in gloom, they often turn to The Cure from the early 80s for catharsis:

adapted from   “The Figurehead”        by  The Cure

They’re short the open, leave me alone -- I’ve been sleeping less every night
As I’m dazed and overweighted, getting too long with size
A noise – I screamed – tore my clothes, heard my Price Alert siren
With the Spiders declining, they thrust up the VIX from the opening bell
We broke some key levels for the first time in a year

A hundred other times, blindly bought securities; Like an oil painting done in the throes of a trance,
I’m capturing my sorrow -- please let me weep, as I view my Account Window
Freshly bought SPY:  You mean nothing … you’re worth nothing

I could lose it all in Chinese stocks and American options
All the time, hedges missed their mark – please do it right!
No rebound in sight, I will lose it all tomorrow, funds from Spain, my risk explodes
My money thrown into the fire, if someone won’t lift it ... at least for a short while

I could never say no to going long with you

Too many LEAP spreads, too much size, I’m writhing with hatred
Too much weakness, please make it stop tonight
But the same image haunts me with frequent despair all night:
I will never be green again
Too much size, my tear-stained face, I will never be green again
Leveraged SPY, my blood-drained face, I will never be green again
I will never be green again

california chrome Keltner Channel Surf Fri, 04/06/2018 - 16:28 Permalink

Keltner Serf, been waiting for you all day to see your Song Du Jour. 

The Doors, Light My Fire would have been another good option, ROFL, though I don't know what happened to bonds today, so I'm posting it. ;-)

Hysterical Blog: http://keltner-surf.blogspot.com/

 

To be sung to the music of The Doors (YouTube)

You know that it would be untrue
You know that I would be a liar
If I was to say to you:   Bond yields couldn't get much higher

C’mon Powell, light my fire;  c’mon JP, take rates higher
Try to set the markets on fire

The time to levitate is through
No time to follow all the buyers
With SPY now, you could only lose
Even doves think that it’s gone too high

C’mon on, J-Man, stoke those fires;  c’mon on Jerome, set rates higher
Dyin’ to see the markets on fire       Oh, Yeah

{insert dense, California 60s-style instrumental break}

The time to self-inflate is through
For firms that borrow and then buy
Cry now, ‘cause you’re gonna lose
With the shares that you reacquire

C’mon Jay-P, let them perspire;  c’mon Fed-Head, gas the fire
Light these markets on fire

You know, I’d even eat fondue
Of melted-down Uber tires
If Trump was to say to you
“Girl, these rates should be much higher”

C’mon J-Low, light my fire;  c’mon Chair-Man, smite those buyers
Try to set the markets on fire, try to set the markets on fire
Gotta get this right, or ‘You’re fired’

In reply to by Keltner Channel Surf

Keltner Channel Surf Fiat Burner Fri, 04/06/2018 - 16:50 Permalink

Too funny, I beat KS by 6 mins. (see below) with the explanation he still seems unable to understand, which is why I'm replying to you.

Given shorts are closed by BUYING, and few like to hold shorts over a weekend, there will often be sudden spikes in the final hour on red Fridays, depending on what levels the preponderance of shorts have their targets -- it's that simple, but can never be known for sure in advance, forcing us to look for clues, often on very short term charts.

As you can see, I got out of a short at @3:30, and another trader below reports getting out earlier.  Crucial VWAP targets (a kind of 'breakeven' zone for many algos intraday) were quite out of reach at the 3:00 witching hour, so on a day like this you can expect a battle between late-day VWAP attempts (failed today) and those wanting lower closes.  A key technical target, higher than recent lows, had already been hit, and there were enough short-closing buy orders there to weaken the picture, so traders and machines flooded out, all buy orders.  If they had been lighter there than lower targets, we'd have seen a late leg down and ended on the lows.  Hardest hour to trade, usually, last hour of the week.

In reply to by Fiat Burner

Keltner Channel Surf Fiat Burner Fri, 04/06/2018 - 17:59 Permalink

It's not all benign, the VWAP battle tends to be larger institutions.  Today, all we can say is that there were enough 1.0 Bollinger coverers to prevent late carnage, but not enough of a crowd joining the VWAP ramper campers to make the rebound go farther.

This gets into semantics of 'manipulation', but if the largest players all go for a target because it impacts their bottom line, it can be annoying, but not 'manipulation' in my mind, which would instead be, as some here truly believe, they're all in the same room with Fed officials deciding when to push a single secret button. 

Don't think we've ever had a world where the more powerful financially weren't advantaged, but I believe this is different from HFT skimming, because here they're using, and risking, capital to get to a target simply through buying, no easy way to ever make that illegal.  Also realize the increased use of "market-on-close" orders by institutions, which could be front-run by an educated guess in the QE era (where no one had ANY significant sells coming in), still goes on, but the 3:30 impact, at least for what I monitor, is FAR less than in the Bernanke era.

In reply to by Fiat Burner

Francis Marx Fri, 04/06/2018 - 16:05 Permalink

 One has to question government people. I wonder if they fathom that the Russian Oligarchs are forced to pull their billions out of our markets to protect their cash since they want to put sanctions on them?  They wonder why sudden crashes like this occur?

Keltner Channel Surf Fri, 04/06/2018 - 16:05 Permalink

Fun Quant/MR Fact-of-the-Day

It seems the 1.0 Exponential Bollinger represented the low on ALL major index charts:  DIA, SPY, IWM, COMP, QQQ.  Perhaps I’m a nerd (ah ... perhaps you can remove the ‘perhaps’) but I assume my fellow quant-o-philes were looking for a late move to the 2.0, or at least to nuzzle the 200 DMA on some of the higher ‘beta’ indices like IWM or QQQs.  (Based on my 5m chart I scrammed out of my uber-leveraged RUT short at 15:32, and would have been disemboweled had I loitered to see what free ‘happy hour’ appetizers algos were a-servin’ – nuthin!  Hope you all didn’t linger too long).

I think that tells us that:  a) despite the look of our post-powell screens, the damn ‘we’re all gonna die’ crowd did NOT come with their ass-kickin’ boots today, woosies;  b) unimpressive volume for such a momentous day also suggests the big boys planned wait out the Trump vs. The East skirmish for a bit more clarity, given Kudlow laid an egg in that regard this morn.

Happy Trading.