GEFIRA: In 2020, German Society Will Start Collapsing

Via GEFIRA,

The next crisis is just a couple of years away, and Germany will be its largest victim. Economies grow, driven by capital and labour. The ECB monetary policy is currently providing the German economy with enough funds, but the country is experiencing a catastrophic lack of youth, and its ageing labour force is not being replaced as a result of which workforce is already in short supply.

Since the German population is declining at a staggering pace, before the end of the century there will only be 22 million indigenous Germans left. Currently the working population has already begun to shrink. This drop is still moderate compared to what will come after 2020. The disappearing of the nation that has just begun will have catastrophic consequences. The German government recorded a large budget surplus last year, a sign that the authorities are not willing or able to invest in their own country. Germany lacks health care professionals, road construction workers and teachers, but allocating more tax money to this sector makes no sense because there are simply no people available. For that reason road construction sites have come to a standstill and road maintenance is postponed. In order to find consumers and labourers, the German industry is investing in new factories abroad.

Gefira Financial Bullletin #22 is available now

  • The economic consequence of Germany’s demographic winter
  • Japan is a model for Germany’s problems
  • How will the economic collapse looks like



In the past, the German economy was able to attract employees from Southern, Eastern and Central Europe, but at present the demographic situation in states such as Spain, Portugal, Italy and Poland – which have long provided Germany with workforce – has worsened, so for all practical purposes these sources of labour have all but dried out. Poland for instance has lost a large number of young people to the West European labour market and the loss has not been made good because of extremely low fertility.The financial sector depends on a growing economy, but – apart from periods of temporary increase – there is no significant growth, and banks have to unwind their positions by selling their assets and returning cash to their clients. When the ageing population tries to sell its investments – stocks, obligations or companies – after 2020 they will find a declining working age population that is willing and able to buy these assets. It is already difficult for German business owners to find successors.

The shrinkage of the consumer base affects adversely the automotive industry. This is being partly remedied by providing immigrants with handouts. The profitability of the German automotive industry depends on China, a country with the fastest growing car market. Germans, however, are only allowed to have plants in China as joint ventures with Chinese partners. As President Trump rightly noticed, German car sales come at a cost which is the transfer of knowledge. Within a couple of years, the Chinese, adopting the Japanese model, will have developed their own car industry, supplanting Volkswagen and BMW from the world markets.

The German society is like most of the Western communities heavily indebted. The growing pension obligation makes German debt obligation in the long run unsustainable. The German economy is facing the same problems as the Japanese economy, which has not grown for twenty years. Japan, Italy, and Spain (the world’s third, ninth and fourteenth economies) are experiencing the demographic winter with all attendant problems. Germany, the world’s fourth largest economy, is next in line.

Academic economists are still blind to what demographers can easily see: after 200 years of continuous growth, the population in the industrial world is decreasing. To put it simply: you cannot have your economy twice as big while at the same time having your population twice as small. Even if productivity quadrupled, there would still be too few consumers of goods and services.

In conclusion, Germany’s problems will only start to accelerate after 2020 when every year the working age population will be reduced by 400 thousand people; by 2028 this number will amount to three-quarters of a million. The disappearance of the German nation will entail the next systemic crisis.

Comments

Sy Kloine Bee Tue, 04/10/2018 - 03:32 Permalink

They can't even get rid of Merkel.  Germany's ultimate destruction has been planned for a long time.

Hooton plan

"Germany Must Perish" - Theodore Kaufmann

etc

Haus-Targaryen TheSilentMajority Tue, 04/10/2018 - 03:55 Permalink

I suspect Germans won't cease to exist in Germany, but I do expect the next few years to get turbulent.  I imagine the various Europeans solve this problem the way they have solved this same problem (being foreigners coming to a part of Europe not their own and expecting the domestic population to service them, adapt their culture, language, religion and belief system) every time its popped up going back Millennia -- Leichenberge.

The only thing left to be determined is:

a) What does "European" mean; and 

b) Whose Leichen will compose said Berge

Either way, I am not sticking around to find out.  If this immigration and birth/death delta between the native population and our "neue Mitbürger" continues for the next five to ten years -- the gap will be too large to ever bridge and I'll set out for greener pastures with my family.  

Congrats lefties!  Chase off the educated and wealthy to import the poor and illiterate. 

In reply to by TheSilentMajority

Teja giovanni_f Tue, 04/10/2018 - 07:44 Permalink

What would it change? With Merkel kicked out, with any immigration blocked and immigrants thrown out of the country, Germany would still end up with some 20 million citizens by end of the century. Or worse - with life expectations going up, maybe 40 million, half of them older than 65.

And, waiting at the borders of Europe or even Germany itself, some couple of 100 millions of eager immigrants.

And, any young people with brains in Europe would have left for countries without demographic collapse, having no interest in coping with a crumbling infrastructure and pushing around wheelchairs in pensioners homes.

Now, explain to me how this could end well. Or define an alternative.

I hear "Get more children". Yeah. Tell that to the consumerist stressed-out thirtysomethings.

 

In reply to by giovanni_f

WernerHeisenberg EuroPox Tue, 04/10/2018 - 05:54 Permalink

WRONG!!!  That crappy photoshop was posted by a different anon.  Q (correctly) called it a fake.  Quite likely McCain met with OBL several times, but not at the age depicted here.  Note, OBL was a NBA class giant, McCain was a Navy pilot.  The height difference would be huge if they were standing side by side.

In reply to by EuroPox

fx Four Star Tue, 04/10/2018 - 04:41 Permalink

Oh my...

has the author ever bothered to look beyond official labour stats? There are more than sufficient German youth and middle aged to fill all the vacant jobns that there will ever be for many years to come. IF, of course, you pay them an adequate compensation! Internships without pay, low paying pseudo-internships, low paying part-time jobs, useless "qualification measures" suck up tens of thousands of young people that could and would be willing to work fulll time in demanding, high qualification jobs with adequate pay.

Hint: a gazillion muslim africans who can barely speak a word outside their native tribal languages will never be able to fill the void but will instead be a huge drain on rsources and lead to esclating conflicts within society. Which is exactly why Soros, merkel and co want them in. Nothing better than to keep the lower and middle income strata busy fighting against the immigrants. Before they might start to fight the top 1 % and Soros and all the other thieves and thugs.

In reply to by Four Star

YouJustCouldnt fx Tue, 04/10/2018 - 08:14 Permalink

Indeed. Also, there is massive youth unemployment within Europeans countries. Why the hell don't they encourage them to come to Germany. At least they will have an understanding of morals, values, and more than likely be Christian, as opposed to bringing in the hordes who have no intention to work, who have zero affinity to Europe or its citizens, and once here, treat their host countries with such utter contempt whilst suckling ravenously on its giant welfare teat.  Thank God Viktor Orban was elected again. 

In reply to by fx

Koba the Dread Blue Steel 309 Tue, 04/10/2018 - 05:28 Permalink

FX, excellent comment. I was most impressed by the idea that the immigrants distract the disenfranchised German population so that they do not fight against the oligarchs.

Hitler did the same thing using Russian immigrant Jews. German Jews were well integrated into German society. It was shtetl Jews driven out of Russia by pograms and into Germany that disturbed the German lower classes. They were poor, ignorant, dirty and didn't speak the language, just like the African immigrants today.

In reply to by Blue Steel 309

Mr.V Haus-Targaryen Tue, 04/10/2018 - 06:54 Permalink

Just go ok, we will not miss you.
You are living in a black box, claiming in germany train stations in villages getting closed, people have to park the car miles away to take a bus to the train station because there are not enough parking spaces.
Clearly you can't see the functionaly of a P+R Hub.

Only morons with no job attack left/right for problems, while they should gather and bring in a revolution.
So weak to just be a keyboard hooligan, your depressic replies are literally below every zero hedge post which proves you don't have a job and just being depressic about everything.
A man who works 9 to 5 doesn't have time to literally reply on every zero hedgo post, definitely not if they are always one of the first to reply.
So don't pretend like you are something good and attack leftist people you depressic moron, clearly you are sitting behind you PC pushing F5 until the next post comes in you retarded f*ck!

And if you want to go, just go dude.
But hey, these people in the country where you want to go might attack other groups in their country because they let you in.
You literally being depressic about something you might want to do in the future your own.

Or waiste your time on a forum talking boolshit about P+R train stations, moron! 

Once Zero Hedge was a place for good financial news, nowadays it has become a gathering for incompetent morons who are literally mad on everything because they don't have success in their own life.

 

In reply to by Haus-Targaryen

ProsperD9 TheSilentMajority Tue, 04/10/2018 - 04:19 Permalink

EXACTLY....!!!! Those idiots believe that importing mass migrants will solve the problem. They're fools! First of all Merkel imports a completely different culture that despise the west and they must think only white people get old. The people they import will get old too....! They'd better get down to basics and promote the nuclear family, unity of men and women, and stop promoting alternative lifestyles and feminism! 

In reply to by TheSilentMajority

Scaliger TheSilentMajority Tue, 04/10/2018 - 04:37 Permalink

Non-hispanic White-Americans experience EXACTLY the same decline, with the same average age of about 43.

The immigrants have either Ave. IQ80 (e.g. Arabs) or Ave. IQ70 (e.g .Somali), i.e. are for ever after Unemployable.

Still, Germans love Muslim becasue both are Fascist to the core by their own proud definitions.
Rapes are an integral part of it, and it is in particular not a problem in that LGBT country,
where the state-TV and schools are all Madrassas - NEVER mention the Bible or a word of truth.
The Rhineland & Berin are for LGBT and Muslims.
Islam is the imminent end-game of every Feudal-Vassal regime, i.e. muted population.
Feudalism is also named the Nanny-State.
Vassalism is the instituted cast of Snow-Flakes, who opt for ready-made solutions.

There's no more Academia, Research or essential Progress.

They are automatically proud of everything,
including their failed computer sector and its similar implications on their various products.

Germany lives on its utterly- & globally- rigged automotive industrial dominance,
thus the masses feel neither any existential stress, nor any need to compete.
In order to cover their tracks, they don't let ANYBODY born/raised/educated elsewehre
to partake in those organsations OEM (Bulkheads) and Suppliers (Struts) of this socioeconomic Rig alike.
...including not the Anglo-Americans who own that utterly defeated land in total till all perpetuities:
GM was kicked out of Germany/Europe last year, being forced to sell Opel/Vauxhall to Peugeot,
on which the small Daimlers (A&B Class) and some small BMWs (X1 & 2-Series) seem to be based.

Autoland is National-Socialist utter mutiny against Democracy/Freedom,
and is backed by the CIA's department named the EU.

FEMINISM == GENOCIDE, yet LGBT Germans only care for their immediate private comfort & style,
pretending and extending exactly like the Americans and Brits do.

Consumerism & LGBT are fatal sins to any society,
yet the Feudals remain utterly indifferent for all but themselves.

In reply to by TheSilentMajority

shortonoil TheSilentMajority Tue, 04/10/2018 - 07:59 Permalink

Human male sperm count has dropped by 50% in 40 years. If this decline rate continues there will be more than a pension problem. Fertility rates will crash around the world. The old economic models will no longer work, nor will a debt based monetary system that requires perpetual growth. There is a lot more going on here than meets the eye, and don't expect the carefully orchestrated media to tell you about it!

In reply to by TheSilentMajority

IronForge TheSilentMajority Tue, 04/10/2018 - 10:06 Permalink

They can go Procreate Themselves... ROTFL!

Seriously, they (and most Top10 Economies)  need to encourage People to get Married and raise Children.

Too late for the USA.  Organic Growth and AnchorBabies/AnchorDreamers will keep increasing the Population.

They are now a BananaDollar (Petrol/Debt/MICWar) Hegemony. Should some States Leave the Union?

 

In reply to by TheSilentMajority

Coreadrin TheSilentMajority Tue, 04/10/2018 - 15:13 Permalink

Slowly falling population is not a net positive, natural population growth is a net positive.  You need young blood to push new ideas and willing to take risks to further human progress, while people tend to be okay with the status quo as they age (I am talking about proper progress in the capitalist sense - increased net living standards for all through innovation and capital investment, not "progress" like an authoritarian leftist attempting to plunge society into a future poverty stricken quasi wasteland).

 

In reply to by TheSilentMajority

css1971 Sy Kloine Bee Tue, 04/10/2018 - 03:51 Permalink

They have made too expensive to have children in Germany.

My direct taxes are about 50%. Then add 20% to anything I purchase, the taxation rate is closer to 70%.

Add day to day expenses, debt servicing (because the euro is debt based) and there is little free money around for people to afford a big family. So 2 kids it is.

Unless you're a moron of course. I do the paying for you too.

In reply to by Sy Kloine Bee

Enrabard css1971 Tue, 04/10/2018 - 04:20 Permalink

Well, look, Turks have no problem with that... and they don't even need to work... and for them having 8 children is no problem... LOL Germany is rich - only people put their standards ridiculously high - with so low credit rates - if you are smart - you can manage nicely - because of that Poles come there and stay with families, buy houses LOL Not being any engineers like Germans... Now imagine how f*d up tax system is in Poland if they escape to much radically different country and stay... In this world you don't need to own audi, you don't need to wear nike, you don't need to have a big house and you don't need university to become specialist (there is sych a thing internet it isn't yet that much censored by gov in germany to not be able to use it's miracles...).

In reply to by css1971

Sy Kloine Bee mog Tue, 04/10/2018 - 04:14 Permalink

What defense did they have against the brainwashing and self-hatred, the culture of shame?  It was imposed on them by the victors of WW2.  A people can only survive and thrive if they love themselves. 

Recently, Poland has taken the opposite direction with regards to WW2 historiography, and not surprisingly, migrant policy.  I predict their country will survive for a long time.

In reply to by mog