Holter: "It's Pure Math - We're Headed For A Train Wreck"

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com 

Financial writer and gold expert Bill Holter says China has a lot of weapons to fight a trade war with the U.S. China could stop buying Treasury bonds (as it reportedly already has done).  It could sell Treasury bonds.  It could slash the value of the Yuan, or something much simpler could happen such as a failed delivery of physical precious metals.  Holter says,

“If what has happened so far in the first three months of the year were to continue for the full year, you would be over three billion ounces (of silver).  That is not deliverable.”

What happen when the world figures out that three billion ounces of physical silver cannot and will not be delivered to the buyers?

Holter explains, “That’s called an old fashion run on the banks.  It will be a run on the entire system.  You would have a run on every metals exchange, and you would probably have runs on many physical commodities.  Confidence throughout the whole system would break.  You would basically show the western fractional reserve system is a fraud and has been for many, many years...

Can London deliver a billion ounces, or two billion ounces or three billion ounces of silver?  The answer to that is no.”

So, when does this all blow up? Holter says, “I think this whole thing has a very good chance of blowing this year.”

There are a variety of financial trip wires, according to Bill Holter, such as thousands of sealed criminal indictments that will be unsealed in 2018. Holter also points out the explosion of global debt.  Holter charges,

It’s now $237 trillion.  The amount of debt grew by $21 trillion globally over the last 12 months. That’s roughly 10 %.  How much did global GDP grow?   2% or 3%, I mean that is totally unsustainable.

The biggest worry for Holter right now is escalating military action in Syria. Holter warns,

“This is so, so dangerous.  Obviously, you worry about a hot war because with the weapons you have today, you could have WWIII start in a heartbeat.  But look at the market today.  It’s up 400 or 500 points.  You have talk of trade wars.  You have talk of hot wars.  It amazing the markets can hold together and ignore potential annihilation.”

In closing, Holter says,

This is math logic and common sense. This is no longer opinion.  You could go back to 2006 and 2007, and it could be argued it was opinion at that point.  It’s no longer opinion.  It’s pure math.  The system is unsustainable.  We’re headed for a train wreck.  Do I absolutely know it’s going to be this year?  No, I don’t know that, but you can see the events are piling up so quickly it certainly looks like it’s going to come to a crescendo very soon.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Bill Holter of JSMineset.com.

Comments

strannick Flamin Rhoid Thu, 04/12/2018 - 00:45 Permalink

 

So, when does this all blow up? Holter says, “I think this whole thing has a very good chance of blowing this year.”

-he said that last year. And like last year, he has no reason or idea why it should be this year.

Holter: "It's Pure Math - We're Headed For A Train Wreck"

-since the Federal Reserves QE and ZIRP and the Exchange Stabilization Funds plunge protection in the markets, math has become "impure", which the Kyle Basses and Bill Holters of the world dont account for when marking their "x" on the date of their doomsday calender.

In reply to by Flamin Rhoid

PT DownWithYogaPants Thu, 04/12/2018 - 01:33 Permalink

The maths has not mattered for 20 years.  Someone needs to explain to me why the maths will suddenly start mattering this year when it didn't for the previous 20.

Re "Silver for delivery" :
What are they going to do with that silver?  Use it? Or store it away to onsell later?  If the latter, then the show can and will continue.  If they actually physically need physical metal for industrial use right now, that is when you MAY see a problem.

The crooks will continue to do as they please and the accountants will continue to bend reality to create a story that pretends to be feasible.  Maths will not tell how the story ends.  Something else will.

In reply to by DownWithYogaPants

gdpetti Muppet Thu, 04/12/2018 - 17:58 Permalink

Unless no one wants your 'cash'... the PMs are always the end and beginning... as civilizations rise and fall... we are watching the end of the Western led empire... China looks to take the helm, but with an aging population like Japan and Korea... only the South Asian countries are growing... in that region...

Problem is Mother Nature has cycles of her own that affect our human cycles.... and she's set to arrive within the next ~9 years to reset the game... we live in 'Purgatory', a school in consciousness, run by the 'dark side'... thus history as we know it is but one war after the next. China doesn't have time to rule the world in a Great Game of their own design... we are at the gates of endtimes... the end of the world as we know it... only a small percent every survive... so the timing seems convergent, no? Check  the EM field chart... check the NEO chart, comet chart, EQ charts, volcano charts... the signs are all over the place.

China and Russia, et al, need to sell off their Western assets while they can... no sense letting us take them down with us... give us more rope and we'll hang ourselves... it's how the NWO rises on the ashes of their OWO... every time.

In reply to by Muppet

weliveinamatrix Oldwood Wed, 04/11/2018 - 23:08 Permalink

me too....and in my opinion, things will collapse when they want them to...and it will be done on THEIR terms..have the basics, small silver demoniations, food, water, protection and STFU and enjoy our last few years best we can...

 95% lean hamburger meat, local grown...Get organic tomatoes and squeeze juice over the hamburger meat...VERY fine chopped onion and a tiny bit of garlic...mix it in well and let marinate in fridge for a few hours..organic,tomato, lettuce and cheese...olive oil heated very hot and throw in a corn tortilla...use tongs to fold and turn over etc...then use the olive grease in the pan to fry thin sliced organic potatoes...find your favorite beer and enjoy...for desert: organic blueberry pie..heated slightly in oven..with real vanilla bean ice cream...smoke a joint before preparing, it makes it more fun...then after all the eating is done, step outside for a good organic natural spirit cigarette....if the cialis you took that morning kicks in, fuck your wife/girlfriend/goat or whatever...safest bet is just to masterbate, causes less problems and the job still gets done...dont forget tissues

In reply to by Oldwood

Jack Oliver Oldwood Thu, 04/12/2018 - 05:39 Permalink

Your health is your wealth - we could all have made a lot of of money investing in the MIC ! 

But I couldn’t sleep at night knowing that I had contributed to the global FUCKING slaughter ! 

So I bought in the mountains - with a mountain stream and am building a house out of river rock !! 

 

You cant put a price on contentment!!! 

In reply to by Oldwood

Give Me Some Truth HRH of Aquitaine 2.0 Thu, 04/12/2018 - 03:43 Permalink

Events are “piling up” that’s for sure. All of these events should be bullish for precious metals. That’s also for sure.

But in the last 45 days - when said events “piled up” - gold and silver’s prices have barely moved up a smidgen. This too is for sure, as the prices are recorded every day.

Make of this what you will. I know what I make of it. That’s for damn sure.

In reply to by HRH of Aquitaine 2.0

I am Groot Wed, 04/11/2018 - 22:53 Permalink

Not one person suggests that the US stop buying everything from China. There are 50-100 countries that would love to create jobs and factories taking China's place to sell cheap goods to the US. The US is China's bread and butter. They screw the US anymore in deficits and they will risk no sales at all. They know it and Trump knows it. The only single thing the US needs is rare earths from them.

Oldwood I am Groot Wed, 04/11/2018 - 23:06 Permalink

Like it or not we live in a globalist world, but that does not mean we must take it up the ass. If Americans refuse to act defensively, we can expect nothing but disaster. As you correctly state, if we are to have any sustainability, there must be balance.

The problem is that it is easy to assume (because progressives have told us so for decades) that it's just business, that everyone just wants prosperity and commerce. THAT is simply a lie as we KNOW that there are governments around this planet who would burn it to the ground for dominance. China is still a communist state with some pretty severe restrictions upon their own people, and there is a long history (as recently as Mao) of willingly murdering millions of their own people to advance ideologies. Radical Muslims (and there are millions) seem happy to die to advance their agenda, one that claims to seek the end of the world.

So this is NOT just about commerce. There are serious concerns about predatory commerce intent not only on superiority, but dominance and ultimately oppression. There is no coincidence that China has been furiously building its military capacity while building alliances with Russia and others.

In reply to by I am Groot

RossDuffer I am Groot Wed, 04/11/2018 - 23:14 Permalink

What good is that if there is a negative balance of trade? That scenario would only be beneficial if perception of the dollar remained positive. If China cuts trade and dumps bonds the US would have to make that up with trading with other nations and deficit spending to cover the lack of Chinese bond purchases which should reduce the value of the dollar. Not only that the Chinese could also dump their dollar reserves which is estimated at around $2trillion, hello more US inflation.

In reply to by I am Groot

besnook RossDuffer Wed, 04/11/2018 - 23:22 Permalink

the account to pay attention is the current account. that includes trade and investment. the ideal is to have a zero current account with all trading partners with negatives and positives balanced by trade and investment. china, for instance has an almost zero current account with all its partners except the usa. the usa has a negative current account with almost every country in the world.

the usa pays for its debt using the seignorage privilege of the dollar as the reserve currency. china (and japan) pay for its internal debt with its positive current account with the usa. that's where things get real complicated in all this economic war talk. who has the advantage?

In reply to by RossDuffer

besnook I am Groot Wed, 04/11/2018 - 23:15 Permalink

actually, no. most people don't understand the scope of china's manufacturing base as the supply chain to the world. starving zimbawe babies are drinking melanine laden formula and sucking on chinese made binkies just like your babies.

vietnam, indonesia,phillipines and all the other possible competitors to china can only nibble at the edges. their raw material trade with china is much more important than competing with china.

the only 2 other possible competitors are india (they don't seem to want manufacturing and their infrastructure is too poor to support it now and africa, where commodities are king so they won't be making stuff any time soon.

 

In reply to by I am Groot

platyops Wed, 04/11/2018 - 23:07 Permalink

The world debt is not a fairy tale. It is real and derivatives are real and sooner or later it comes crashing down.

The credit stops and then what?

Americans being for the most part dumb as hob nail boots have not got a clue as to what money is or what debt is. As long as we have Stormy Daniels and the Oakland Raiders everything is fine until one day it is not.

All debts must be paid! Either by the lender or the borrower. That is a financial FACT!

Give Me Some Truth platyops Thu, 04/12/2018 - 04:09 Permalink

The scenario Holter describes could happen if ...

1) China and Russia cease buying U.S. treasuries.

2) If they start selling what they have in large quantities.

3) They use the proceeds to buy gold and silver, and demand delivery. And start buying from every source that actually has physical supply.

4) Call a major press conference and loudly complain when NO physical is delivered. Demand delivery and ask why it is not being delivered. And ask where is all the gold and silver if the price is so low.

5) Show and  tell how many ounces of golf each nation actually possesses. Allow independent audits. Share their firm opinion that America does NOT freely own title to the gold it says it does. Demand/ask that America prove that it does.

6) Use their influence to get as many stories on this topic published as possible. Embarrass the MSM who will /have refused to investigate this. State unequivocally that the U.S. government, Fed, BIS, and the bullion banks have conspired to rig the gold and silver markets, and indeed all markets in the world.

7) Refuse to do business with the COMEX, and promote their own gold and silver exchanges.

8) Encourage every world citizen to transfer at least a portion of their wealth from fiat currencies into “real money.”

9) Move forward with the petro-yuan-gold initiative.

10) Tell people in the world if they want real physical gold, they can buy it from their country, at free market prices.

See what happens. It would be interesting if the NYT or WaPo would even send reporters to such a press conference. Or if this story would get 10 seconds on the nightly news. When they don’t, highlight this fact on any and all alternative media outlets. Not only are markets rigged, the freakin news is rigged.

In reply to by platyops

Bond Wizzerd Thu, 04/12/2018 - 01:26 Permalink

This all sounds like a wet dream. All I know is being early is the same as being wrong. If gold/silver catches a bid, I'm probably a seller - it's the worst performing asset I own for over 7 years now.

zob2020 Thu, 04/12/2018 - 01:56 Permalink

Cause the system to collapse... pff... system is causing its own collapse if it sells what it does not have. Selling metals espcially short is just asking to be seen as having the credibility of a witchdoctor. As if papergold wasnt here already... bye bye western world with your oligarchic elective absolute monarchy masquerading as democracy.
Time for tripple latte pumpkin juice millennials and gibgibgib-retirees to all die in the west. All the while the shitskinned gangraping cockroaches will flee as welfare payments collapses.

Batman11 Thu, 04/12/2018 - 05:24 Permalink

The economics used for globalisation had a known flaw.

The 1920s roared with debt based consumption and speculation until it all tipped over into the debt deflation of the Great Depression. No one realised the problems that were building up in the economy as they used an economics that doesn’t look at private debt, neoclassical economics.

It’s like trying to run the economy through a welding mask.

https://cdn.opendemocracy.net/neweconomics/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2017/04/Screen-Shot-2017-04-21-at-13.52.41.png

Can we get some people in that know what they are doing?

The UK economy has been running on debt since 1980.

https://cdn.opendemocracy.net/neweconomics/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2017/04/Screen-Shot-2017-04-21-at-13.53.09.png

As we know, most of this debt has just gone into inflating the value of the nation’s housing stock and financial speculation.

When bank lending goes into business and industry, this generates the money to make the repayments whereas expensive real estate just acts as a drag on the economy sucking purchasing power out of the economy with mortgage payments and rents.

Our “new normal” of “secular stagnation” is Japan’s “old normal” of “secular stagnation”.

The debt fuelled boom comes first and the stagnation is caused by the drag on the economy from debt repayments.

As Japan has found, you can’t really raise interest rates until the debt overhang from the debt fuelled boom has been dealt with.

We have a long way to go, and the UK economy is going nowhere in the short to medium term.

You can leave debt out of economics, but debt is still going to affect the economy.

Batman11 Batman11 Thu, 04/12/2018 - 05:26 Permalink

The other known flaw:

“Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.” Irving Fisher 1929.

An earlier neoclassical economist believed in price discovery, stable equilibriums and the rational decisions of market participants.

The neoclassical economist believes in the markets and can’t even imagine there could be a bubble as markets are entirely rational.

Bullshit economics is running the global economy.

In reply to by Batman11

Last of the Mi… Thu, 04/12/2018 - 06:56 Permalink

No, we've not headed for a train wreck, we're going to put a million people on mars in the next ten years or so.

You can feed a large portion of the people feces sandwiches while promising steak tomorrow and most of them will go along with it. . . forever.

Easyp Thu, 04/12/2018 - 07:31 Permalink

"Its pure math" really?  The article seemed real thin on charts and hard numbers.  Interesting opinion from a guy with a shaky history imo.