Crypto-mania Returns: Bitcoin Soars $1000 In Minutes, Most Since 2017; Back Above $8000

The last 30 minutes has seen Bitcoin explode higher by over 15% (the biggest move since 2017), breaking above $8,000 on extremely heavy volume as the cryptocurrency tests above its 200-day moving-average.

Speculative chatter on the driver behind the move is Russian oligarchs buying (though we note that Bitcoin actually fell on the announcement of the sanctions last week). This is obviously unconfirmed...

Additionally, and perhaps more likely, this is a reflexive easing from the tax-related selling pressure that many have discussed as a big driver of cryptos downside ahead of next week's tax deadline.

Extremely heavy volume on this upswing... The move peaked at around 16%, before fading back to a more stable 11% gain.

 

Bitcoin is testing its 200DMA...

It's not just Bitcoin, the entire crypto space is bid for now...

While this panic-bid is notable - the biggest spike since 2017 - the price of bitcoin has nearly halved in the four months of the year so far, and its unlikely to top its all time high of $19,843, set in December, ever again, Barclays says.

"Unlike past peaks in Bitcoin prices, the survey evidence, based on our modeling, suggests that the speculative bubble in crypto currencies may have passed its peak," the bank said as part of its annual Equity Gilt report this week.

Here's where the bank's model predicts bitcoin's price will go from here:

Unsurprisingly, as BI reports, the team of analysts led by Joseph Abate say there's a striking similarity between bitcoin's rise in popularity and the spread of viruses like influenza.

"Applying this model to speculative behaviour in crypto currencies, it suggests that once a large enough share of the population susceptible to speculation becomes aware of and holders of crypto currencies, upward pressure on prices stalls," they write. "To the extent that holders’ attraction to Bitcoin was speculative – as our empirical analysis of historical prices suggests – those holders then become sellers, initiating an accelerating downward spiral."

Comments

tmosley overbet Thu, 04/12/2018 - 08:24 Permalink

Single huge green candle? Some whale taking advantage of the lack of market depth to run stops. Slaughter the shorts. Suspect it will move sideways for a while, then we go back down to where it was on a single red candle to kill the fresh longs. We call this the "Bart Simpson" formation.

Correlation bots spread the move across the complex automatically. Ridiculous.

Need to kill off all the big frauds before thinking about diving back in.

In reply to by overbet

Yellow_Snow tmosley Thu, 04/12/2018 - 08:25 Permalink

Me thinks it was a 'short squeeze'...

"It appears short liquidation or unwinding of short (sell) BTC trades has played a big role in the sudden rally, according to some sources. ...a move that seems to have triggered stop losses on short trades..."

                                                                                                                               - CoinDesk

In reply to by tmosley

Buckaroo Banzai TruxtonSpangler Thu, 04/12/2018 - 13:55 Permalink

Cryptocurrencies represent a rounding error on a rounding error when it comes to global money laundering. HSBC alone probably handles hundreds of billions a year in laundering. Then there's the art and real estate markets which probably do another couple hundred billion.

A few billion here or there in cryptocurrencies is a nothingburger. But of course, Shlomo isn't going to get his cut on the Bitcoin money laundering, so let's go ahead and demonize that.

In reply to by TruxtonSpangler

DillyDilly tmosley Thu, 04/12/2018 - 08:55 Permalink

mosley's probably right on this one...

 

BTC would probably have to rise above $9,200 [today], or, over $8,300 [by April 28], to even break the log scale downward trendline from the ATH.

 

If it can't do either of those, something like $4,534 would still be possible (by around July 28)... Anything can still happen.

In reply to by tmosley

dasein211 pods Thu, 04/12/2018 - 10:38 Permalink

I’ll take the Tmos opposite position. The move down to pay taxes is nearly over. The next up wave has begun. Now we shall see which cryptos have real promise. This will be a slower move (maybe) but the big boys are coming in now. It’s the currency central banks can’t fuck with. That alone has value. 

In reply to by pods

DillyDilly dasein211 Thu, 04/12/2018 - 10:49 Permalink

@dasein

 

The "pay taxes" thing is compelling... Thing is, I started thinking about that way back in January and felt that if I needed to liquidate, I'd have done it then...

 

No matter ~ the technicals are still in a downtrend, but I've NEVER SEEN any panic at any point... It'll all pass (we're talking, within a few months if time alone is the factor).

 

@pods

 

Yup ~ I was on here talking about the 'stupidity' of killing the goose that can lay golden eggs  just recently. Won't happen.

In reply to by dasein211

tr123 Yellow_Snow Thu, 04/12/2018 - 12:26 Permalink

Yeah but that's on Linear, look at the log scale, we need 8700. Anytime something moves 50% in a short space of time log is the sure bet, otherwise you get false signals

And this is just a gang of whales imo. Will probably start shorting the crap out of it again right at 8700. That game got old around 6900 b/c too many buyers would show up around 6700. I had to stop doing it b/c the risk of getting squeezed was too great. They have more room to work with once this wave dies down.

In reply to by Yellow_Snow

Exponere Mendaces tmosley Thu, 04/12/2018 - 11:25 Permalink

It was a short-squeeze, crypto Jim "tmosley" Cramer.

I swear, every time Bitcoin has a fucking wiggle ZH is all on top of that shit, trying to pin it to recent news or whether they had a good hotdog at the fucking food cart on Broad Street.

You can't keep Bitcoin in a corner, and it fucking ripped off a bunch of short-faces, to the tune of over $150 million notional in less than an hour.

 

In reply to by tmosley

manofthenorth house biscuit Thu, 04/12/2018 - 10:51 Permalink

I am no fan of fiat at all. Not as a store of value anyway.

However I am left little choice as it is the most accepted global "currency".

So far as the USD, I am grateful that it will not lose 15% of it's value between when I get paid and when I spend it.

The idea of crypto is great but it has a ways to go so far as utility.

Speculate all you want, good luck.

Who would not want "money" for nothing ??? 

In reply to by house biscuit

centipede manofthenorth Thu, 04/12/2018 - 11:28 Permalink

There is no big difference between unbacked cryptos and fiat. Both have been created out of thin air. The only main difference is, that there can only be few hundred national fiat currencies with unlimited number of coins and there can be unlimited number of cryptocurrencies with limited (or not) number of coins. Other than that they are basically the same. Why on earth should I prefer unbacked currencies which could be created just by anybody out of nothing?

In reply to by manofthenorth

pods centipede Thu, 04/12/2018 - 11:39 Permalink

Umm, you do realize that all "fiat" currencies are actually not just fiat (Zim and other basket cases notwithstanding) but they are actually DEBT BACKED currencies?

The USD is not a fiat, it is a DEBT backed currency. Big difference.

And it is also a fractional reserve currency. The only way cryptos can be looked at that way is another bankster invention, the futures market.

My cryptos were not ISSUED with debt attached.  Nor were they created out of nothing. They were created by work.  You can argue whether that work is worthless, but they are not just created out of thin air. Unless you are talking about scam "coins", which are not cryptos at all. Crypto=cryptographic proof, ie, work. Tokens=whatever the issuer wants them to be. But they are NOT cryptos.

pods

In reply to by centipede

snblitz bwh1214 Thu, 04/12/2018 - 13:33 Permalink

I watched the first 4 minutes and found nothing to counter my arguments against bitcoin, just more of the typically vague claims.  After keeping an eye on bitcoin starting in 2010 and becoming a miner in 2012 I watched the claims about bitcoin morph and change over the years to the point that bitcoin is not much more than a great speculative play in 2017 and otherwise does not offer much value:

  • irreversible public ledger - no
  • stable currency - no
  • decentralized - no (and suffers from the 51% problem)
  • cheap - sometimes
  • fast - no (60 minutes for transaction confirmation)
  • scaleable - no (7.5 transaction per second max or 20 with segwit)
  • eliminates third parties - no
  • exchanges - risky and costly (though not entirely bitcoin's fault)

I do not think the "kids" that created bitcoin (quoted from the video) were in it to defraud anyone.  I was one of the "kids".

But the system was taken over by speculators.

The bitcoin system as it exists today it not particularly useful.  It does have some uses but they are pretty narrowly defined and come with a fair amount of risk.

https://www.finitespaces.com/2018/01/01/what-is-bitcoin-and-the-other-crypto-currencies/

In reply to by bwh1214

Yellow_Snow Yellow_Snow Thu, 04/12/2018 - 10:02 Permalink

"It appears short liquidation or unwinding of short (sell) BTC trades has played a big role in the sudden rally, according to some sources. ...a move that seems to have triggered stop losses on short trades..."

                                                                                                                               - CoinDesk

In reply to by Yellow_Snow

DillyDilly lester1 Thu, 04/12/2018 - 08:34 Permalink

WWE wrestling announcer taps on microphone:

 

"Ladies & Gentlemen ~ tonight we have a battle of 2 TITANS of deep thinkers... In this corner ~ weighing in at 98 pounds ~ mosley who says " Single huge green candle? Some whale [as in 1 person] taking advantage of the lack of market depth to run stops. Slaughter the shorts. " ~ In the other corner, weighing in at 98.01 pounds, carrying the extra weight because of the sand that got kicked in his face, lester, whose contention is "more mentally ill people [as in many people]"

 

Let's get ready to rumble!

In reply to by lester1

lookslikecraptome DillyDilly Thu, 04/12/2018 - 11:28 Permalink

very well done.

I suppose if one wanted to validate mos's hypothesis one could simply, go to the charts and check the volume for the specific time frame and analyze the volume regarding the uptick. I must admit following the charts for the last few months, i was wondering where the buyers came from. Gotta admit, without checking the charts, the whale theory by mos could be correct.

On the other hand (in the other corner:-) ), Lester may have a point; people decided to eat acid and shoot speed and started clicking the buy button in tandem on some news that a lost gerbil was found in a winklevoss twin rectum. 

Really well done comment u did.  

 

In reply to by DillyDilly

snblitz tr123 Thu, 04/12/2018 - 13:43 Permalink

I am not lester. I do look for value in bitcoin.  I started mining in 2012. I do not see the value that bitcoin brings except in a few very limited instances.

I try to be concise and address specific and demonstrate-able facts.  I would like some specific claims about bitcoin to work with but generally I just get vague claims.  Often they are about how great bitcoin is going to be in the future with this or that change.

Specific claims about bitcoin are avoided because it is easy to show them to be false or grossly exaggerated.

So I end up in a "proving the negative"-like situation.

I would have liked a currency that is what bitcoin hoped to be.  But bitcoin as it exists now is not any of the things "we" (the kids) hoped it would be. 

https://www.finitespaces.com/2018/01/01/what-is-bitcoin-and-the-other-crypto-currencies/

In reply to by tr123