Who's Driving The Mysterious Swiss Franc Slump?

The last couple of weeks have seen something mysterious occur in the Swiss Franc, Amid all the chaotic economic, geopolitical, and military machinations - that have sparked a bid for gold and bonds - the Swissy, a traditional safe-haven currency, has weakened notably.

In fact the weakness has been going on since Davos in February...

So who is selling swiss francs?

Bloomberg ventures to suggest  nervous Russian Tycoons may be driving the swissy selloff.

“The Swiss franc is driven predominantly by capital flows for now and Russia sanctions included Swiss companies where Russians are invested,” said Manuel Oliveri, a currency strategist at Credit Agricole SA, citing Sulzer AG as an example.

“Increased need for liquidity by Russians, and no appetite for leaving cash in Switzerland, is changing the franc’s correlation with risk sentiment,” he said, adding market speculation on this issue was hard to confirm.

As a side point, as Swissy sank this week, the market capitalization of The Swiss National Bank has collapsed by over 25%...

“The Swiss franc has been caught squarely in the Russian sanctions issue,” said Peter Rosenstreich, head of market strategy at Swissquote Bank SA.

“For a small, open economy like Switzerland getting caught in a geopolitical tug of war is extremely risky. Switzerland still derives value from safety and privacy. So when that is threatened in any way certain investors get nervous.”

So, the big question is - Are Russian oligarchs selling swissy and buying bitcoin?

The timing of the moves are certainly coincidental.

Comments

Exponere Mendaces 38BWD22 Fri, 04/13/2018 - 19:25 Permalink

After Swiss banks rolled over to assist the USA in implementing FATCA, they aren't a bastion of financial privacy they once were.

Depegging from the Euro was probably the only smart move those fuckers have made in the last ten years.

Bitcoin is taking over, and news will surface before long that its being added to assets held by nation-states. What we're seeing is the slow rotation out of shitty money into something that doesn't suck central bankers cocks.

And its about time.

In reply to by 38BWD22

HRClinton NugginFuts Fri, 04/13/2018 - 13:54 Permalink

I left the US for Switzerland, earlier this month.

Have a very nice condo, with view of town, lake and Alps.

I don't use Fiat Debt Plantation Scrip, aka USD. I use CHF. Am HODLing my 2013 BTC and 2017 Altcoins. Occasionally I take my shiny AU out of my Safe place and admire it.

I almost said that the skiing here is "to die for", but then I realized that it's not a good expression, given today's news headlines about the German billionaire who went missing while skiing not too far from my place.

 

For those of you who can't move and are stuck with one passport (the JUSA/ZUSA Plantation), you will have to make your stand or get chipped and processed.

In reply to by NugginFuts

38BWD22 HRClinton Fri, 04/13/2018 - 14:08 Permalink

 

Been following your comments re moving to CH, congratulations.

I have two general questions:

-- What is a reasonable minimum pile of assets ($-value) to move there?  Switzerland is expensive, and their tax rates are not that low.

-- How intrusive is the Swiss government?  With "higher-than-expected" taxes, it may be that their .gov is nosier than one would expect as well.

Would enjoy any observations.

In reply to by HRClinton

HRClinton 38BWD22 Fri, 04/13/2018 - 20:50 Permalink

A1: The CHF needed, depends mostly on your tastes, needs and lifestyle. You certainly need a 7 figure amount.

A2: Taxes vary, depending on where you are.

Consider this: the F1 legend Michael Schumacher lived in Monaco for a number of years, for tax reasons. He then moved to CH for family reasons (the kids needed green space to play in), and made a "customized" tax deal. 

In reply to by 38BWD22

Think for yourself LawsofPhysics Fri, 04/13/2018 - 13:31 Permalink

buy bitcoin, localbitcoins, atms, various ways to buy without necessarily being tracked/having the public key be in any way linked to you. pass it through a tumbler if you wish and get it forwarded from there to another wallet/private key. Load it into an exchange where you didn't register as a customer (you can often trade and withdraw without registering your identity, only not withdraw cash). On that exchange, or Shapeshift, or Changelly, shift blockchains to another private key wallet that is controlled yet not linked to you, or to a privacy-coin like Monero, Dash, ZCoin, Verge or Spectre - or a hundred others - shift it around a bit or just simply buy an Amazon or other gift cards online with it. Or just fricking take that BTC and send it to a dealer that will redeem it for shiny, be it heavy or silvery. The only thing the ledger records is that some public address (which is untrackeable to its private adress) received some funds and later transferred it to a different address. The blockchain doesn't record anything else, and they have no idea what was on the other side of the transaction - acquiring assets, selling the crypto, buying a service or paying a debt - nobody needs to know. X btc sent from Y address to Z address, that's it.

There's a thousand ways to be anonymous in world of crypto, even if you solely use the very specific and immutable BTC ledger.
The water's not that cold. Get in while BTC is still under 10k and even if you fear it'll keep dropping below 6.5k (doubt that because of shifting sentiment, but some bears were calling for 4.5-4k) then just dollar cost average your entry in the market. Get at least 1-5% invested in crypto and thank me later. Seriously. If you are a trader, you might want to re-examine your biases and assumptions about the entire crypto segment.

LTC: LbF3Sng3yCq2ekTMgSToQPtGe4EM6KgcNr
 
 

In reply to by LawsofPhysics

P.K.Snosage Fri, 04/13/2018 - 12:30 Permalink

"The Swiss franc is driven predominantly by capital flows for now"

 

Total nonsense and a common misunderstanding of what it is that moves the Swiss Franc.

 

In Nuce - the story is total bollocks. 

Adolph.H. Fri, 04/13/2018 - 12:34 Permalink

What do the algos think about that? 

There was not a lot of transactions on the bitcoin side, so we might be talking about maybe 1 or 2 oligarchs...

----

It's okay not to be a Jew.

Peter Pan Fri, 04/13/2018 - 12:44 Permalink

With the threat of an EMP and a host of other government clampdowns why would they buy bitcoin and not buy gold?

Alternatively can someone please explain that to me why bitcoin is a better way to protect wealth?

Think for yourself 38BWD22 Fri, 04/13/2018 - 13:42 Permalink

I don't own much savings and didn't need a complex strategy, only something straightforward and effective - and I think it's a pretty good distribution anywhere from 10k to 1000k -
25% fiats, 25% PM, 25% btc, 25% alts.
If you are risk averse, then it could be
25% fiats, 25% Au, 25% Ag, 25% btc + alts

I'm a bit above that distribution, 'too much' PMs and cryptos and a bit low on fiat liquidity - but that's because I chose to remain broke to avoid being a weak hand in PMs and used the bit of crypto to trade and grow in token terms.

What do you think?
(Edit: my fiats are CAD so quite a bit less risky than USD)

In reply to by 38BWD22

38BWD22 Think for yourself Fri, 04/13/2018 - 14:03 Permalink

 

Holding a nice chunk of assets in FIAT$ is a good idea as well.  You may need that money just as it is in a crunch.

But, there are two issues:

-- Hide that fiat...

-- Be nimble and ready to BUY Au (etc.) with it if inflation picks up.

Also, avoid debt.

*   *   *

Everyone's situation is different.  We own a condo and our business (the latter is located in Peru).  

In reply to by Think for yourself

Yen Cross Fri, 04/13/2018 - 12:55 Permalink

  That would do a lot to help explain the euro holding up so well vs the $usd.

 The usd/chf has also strengthened notably, and if you overlay that with eur/usd something looks fishy. Those trades are supposed to move inversely of each other.