Bitcoin Bounce Continues, Shiller Says Cryptos "Could Be With Us Forever"

Following Tim Draper's excited "$250k by 2022" forecast, Bitcoin (and the rest of the crypto space) have extended last week's gains as tax-driven selling pressure appears to have abated and Bob Shiller says Bitcoin 'bubble' "could be with us forever."

Bitcoin is up over 20% in the last few days, testing up to its 50-day moving-average...

 

And Ripple is up over 35%...

 

FundStrat's Tom Lee offers some perspective on the current trend in cryptos compared to the 2013-2015 Bitcoin bear market...

The 90% decline, which lasted 405 days, took prices back to Oct 2013, or 1 month prior to Nov 2013 peak.  From Oct '13->Nov '13, BTC gained 621% in a month. That year-long decline was a rollback of 1 month of gains.

And the current slide...

Where was Bitcoin 1 month prior to ~$20,000 top? $5,900. 

In other words, BTC this year rolled-back prices similar to what happened in 2014/15. 

Could be same bottom as the 2014/15 bottom. Also, selling related to capital gains taxes in US should be lifting as tax day is 4/17?

And as CoinTelegraph reports, Nobel Prize laureate for economics Robert Shiller believes that while Bitcoin (BTC) might be a bubble, that doesn’t mean that it will burst and be gone forever, according to an interview on April 13 with CNBC’s Trading Nation.

image courtesy of CoinTelegraph

Shiller, who is currently a professor of economics at Yale University, referred to BTC as “another example of faddish human behavior. It’s glamorous”:

"I'm interested in [B]itcoin as a sort of bubble. It doesn't mean that it will disappear, that it'll burst forever. It may be with us for a while."

Shiller highlights that he knows that “smart people” have invested in cryptocurrencies, including many of his students, but adds that the attraction to crypto is “a story that I think goes way beyond the merit of the idea. It is more psychological than something that could be explained by the computer science department."

According to Shiller, there is a “part” of the cryptocurrency “fad” or “bubble” that is political, as people that don’t trust their governments may be tempted to invest.

In September of last year, Shiller went on CNBC’s Fast Money with Brian Kelly to speak along the same lines about crypto, saying that “it’s the quality of the story that’s attracting all this interest.”

Comments

Exponere Mendaces overbet Sun, 04/15/2018 - 19:19 Permalink

Funny how we have confirmation of the same pattern I've been talking about after every major Bitcoin decline.

  • Basing action, sideways to the point the n00b traders get bored and blow up their accounts on margin trading sideways markets
  • The first hint of acceleration, breakout past a technical level that brings in more investment flows
  • Spectacular blow-off exponential top, with n00bs top-ticking the high by hitting every ask out there
  • N00b-crushing decline as the exponential rally runs out of steam
  • Idiot blogs and news services proclaim Bitcoin is "dead" this time. (The last 300 times didn't count, natch.)
  • Loop back to the top

And yet, every fucking retard in the ZH comment section is exclaiming how Bitcoin is "finished" and is "going to zero". Either they're completely lacking any long-term memory, or they're just simply so fucking stupid they can't understand how to walk and chew gum at the same time.

This pattern will repeat, again and again, ascending the larger S-Curve of adoption. You think five digit prices are "too high"? Just wait until you see six digits, then seven.

 

In reply to by overbet

Dsyno lester1 Sun, 04/15/2018 - 14:30 Permalink

Here's my tip. Every year, buy crypto on April 15th, sell on December 15th. Why?...

Because people trading crypto thoughout the year need to sell quite a bit Jan-Apr 15th to pay capital gains taxes...

After April 15th, the selling pressure recedes, and the price continues to go ballistic the rest of the year.

On that note, I also would not be surprised if the gov is manipulating crypto prices, because it's a great way to create huge tax revenue out of thin air. Think about it.

In reply to by lester1

Exponere Mendaces lester1 Sun, 04/15/2018 - 19:32 Permalink

Oh look, its our favorite sausage-snorkling grandpa.

Just so you have a basis of comparison, and because you're a cherry-picking turd burglar, here's some real fucking yield stats:

  • Today                +$328.42      +4.10 %
  • Last 7 days        +$1,309.40   +18.65 %
  • Last 30 days      +$62.78        +0.76 %
  • Last 6 months   +$2,634.71    +46.24 %
  • Last 1 year        +$7,151.41    +605.69 %
  • Last 2 years      +$7,902.13    +1,837.79 %
  • Last 5 years      +$8,263.75    +12,089.33 %

Read 'em and weep, you barking seal retard. LOL.

( Reference: https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/price/ )

In reply to by lester1

lookslikecraptome Exponere Mendaces Sun, 04/15/2018 - 20:40 Permalink

Great chart on coulda, should and woulda. No different than the crap BACKTESTERS present u with their systems for sales. U no the dream merchants. 

Here is a bit of something for u.

2000 to open an account to trade the swiss franc, Deutsche mark, and the BP ( gotta cover ur draw-down). Pop it to 35,000 in 1.5 years. Move to full SP (took only 5000, BUT GOTTA COVER UR DRAW DOWN, u do no what that is, correct?)  before the minis trading on Windows 3.1 and call in ur trades. Use signal boxes with serial port hook ups. Use betas of trade station.  Study the Dow as a leading indicator for the SP. Get hammered, Keep after it. Have 12.5 million or so in real money today. Can actually buy gas, cars tires food and medicine. Try that with crptos. Yeah fucker I have cryptos. The eminis and the Sp are better instruments. Trust me. I have traded them all and more. 

Fuck ur percentages kid. 

I aint greedy. 

Did not mention the rental real estate I own, free and clear. NOT THE BANK. Fuck Lambos. I have a mini van. 

In reply to by Exponere Mendaces

lookslikecraptome Golden Phoenix Mon, 04/16/2018 - 00:32 Permalink

You go right ahead and try ripping me a new asshole loser. I can buy and sell ur dumb ass any time I want. Take that "old timer zero hedge" shit and park it up ur ass if u can get the donkey dick outta the way. I have been trading, likely, longer than u have been alive. 

Dude u r a complete moron. You know jack all about crypto, finances, trading and investing and money management where it counts. 

A 2 month noob to the hedge. LOL LOL.   I have a 35 year history of trading the full SP. and b4 that the swiss franc, the BP and the DM. What the fuck you have u done???.  I am not the only SP trader here so I do not self aggrandize. But when u r starting out that shit can almost make u puke with fear if u r were an off floor trader. 

Grow a pair numb nuts. Scrape ur pennies together and trade a mini, if u can figure it out, it will make you truly rich. Not like crypto La La Land. Which is fun. But it is for NOOBS and babies in their momma's basement unless u r a 1%er. 

Anarchists and libertarians get nowhere in the real world.

Did I mention, park that I am an old time hedger shit up ur ass. 

I got coin, tell me where it is headed 2morrow, a week, a month, or a year. Try not to parrot the winklevoss lads. 

Man that is something to tell ur grand kids about. I have been on the hedge a couple years and i call people noobs. 

Not likely I will waste anymore time with a goofball like u. 

Smart people are here and u r not one of them.

There are some truly funny people here with wit, wisdom, astute sarcasm and great snarking ability. Some of the best I have ever seen online. 

If you think calling some one a two month noob is even close to great sarcasm or funny snark, u r truly pathetic. 

But then again it is u, the sista mommy fucker, so u likely think ur a genius. Whodda thunk it?

BTW, what part of what people have been saying since ur are an "ole timer" on the hedge, even have relevance to that to which u responded?

Well there u have it Cletus. 

In reply to by Golden Phoenix

silverer lester1 Sun, 04/15/2018 - 14:08 Permalink

I just see a stagnant future for Bitcoin. Because the "inflation" of many more of these types of systems will spread the invested money out, and it's like having gold, then gold 1, and gold 2, and gold 3, and so forth. Unlike Bitcoin, gold backed cryptos no longer offer a chance of appreciation unless gold itself goes up, although the tie to gold makes them way less risky to hold. But now who do you want to trust to back your gold-backed crypto? That's the next hurdle. Give me real gold. It nukes fiat from space, just to be sure.

Check out all the new additions. And wonder where will Bitcoin be in five years as an unbacked crypto?:

http://www.goldscape.net/gold-blog/gold-backed-cryptocurrency/

In reply to by lester1

wetwipe silverer Sun, 04/15/2018 - 15:46 Permalink

Sorry to burst your bubble but commodity back crypto's will never work.

The counter party risk is too great. What is the incentive to mine. If not mined then it will be a centralized system which is a joke.

100% this will never work.

Bitcoin is the gold standard blockchain and the token also called bitcoin will be the gold standard crypto.

2018-2020 will be very harsh on the alt-coins, unless you invent something new, rather than clone bitcoin then you're not going to be successful, 90% of alts will disappear soon as well as 99% of ERC 20's and ICO's.

Looking at some of the comments here I'm sure that 99% of people don't really understand what has been created. Those that do will buy bitcoin and hold as they have the foresight to glimpse in to the future and can see the potential of the technology. Not just some wild speculation where you check the price every 30 seconds.

 

In reply to by silverer

lookslikecraptome wetwipe Sun, 04/15/2018 - 16:04 Permalink

You make some very legit points. Another question is the volume. And how many new btc wallets are not being created. People churning back and forth between the long whales and the short whales does not a market make. Nor does it do anything to enhance the dreams of the libertarian and anarchistic, border-less, "the science of BTC", decentralized dreams of the coineratti. Nor will it ever destroy the banks, a very naive dream. 

Just ask the moron who sold his 500,000.00 house for BTC in December how he feels about BTC as a store of value. I do not hate BTC. I am realistic about it and I got some coin. 

Cannot buy penicillin with it, unless u use Tor and the black market, aint no black market for tires, roofs, or burgers at McDonalds. etc. I tried to see if i could buy tires in the most progressive counties in California, Santa Cruz, Alameda, San Francisco, Santa Clara etc. They laughed at me and said what the hell?????????????

In reply to by wetwipe

Mustafa Kemal lester1 Sun, 04/15/2018 - 14:49 Permalink

"Good time to sell and cash out before the price plunges again."

lester1, is that what you are doing? Me, Im hodling.

Im putting my money where my mouth is.

In the meantime, I have two full rolls of Liberty Double Eagles as profit, so that if I lose the batch, im still good. On the next upswing, Ill take a few more rolls profit ( in addition to  tax payments). poor me.

In reply to by lester1

tmosley Sun, 04/15/2018 - 13:29 Permalink

See those huge single candle moves?

This is fake market action. Someone is wash trading in the hopes of attracting more suckers. The fraud needs to be cleared out before anyone even thinks of buying in. You will be able to do so at much better prices.

DillyDilly tmosley Sun, 04/15/2018 - 13:33 Permalink

Eureka ~ we agree on something!

 

It'll still probably get to 8900 on BTC and somewhere between 540-600 on ETH (or when either daily RSI gets up in the 80 vicinity)...

 

Anyway ~ cryptos ain't dead, that's 4 sure.

 

Edit: I actually agree a little with lesters comment (for once)... If you were someone who got in late and are sitting on losses... Well ~ I'm not really a day trader, but if you 'book' some losses here, you'd be able to offset any capital gains you might book later on in the year (and then get in at a lower price like mosley says).

 

BCH ~ that's a tougher nut because the chart's just not very mature... U could still see 940, but then again it might have already made all of its move... It's a descending wedge though, so even it it trips back, it ought to get moving again by June...

In reply to by tmosley

tmosley simpson seers Sun, 04/15/2018 - 13:51 Permalink

Nothing, I was long out of the market before they started happening.

Do I have to keep repeating how pathetic you are? Or can we just pretend that I point out the things that indicate how much of a loser you are (focusing on other people's perceived losses in this case) every time I respond to you? Honestly I don't think you are worth the time it took my to write out this comment.

In reply to by simpson seers

lookslikecraptome Dsyno Sun, 04/15/2018 - 16:27 Permalink

Fuck of tard. When u get to the point u actually understand trading and investing, drop a line. I started trading the full SP before there were minis. on windows 3.1, when u had to phone in ur orders. I got some coin also. I look at it as a joke. Something funny. Who are u to question any person's trading or investment decisions? Any moron can buy and hold. 

I seriously doubt u have the trading acumen to look at a chart and see the single big candles that Mosley pointed out. He may not be correct (no person is always correct in the markets), but he has the brains to look at a chart and raise the question. 

There are some brilliant people that comment here that have serious knowledge about trading, investing, economics, cryptos, mining and politics, etc. You are not one of them. No I do not include myself in them. I can perceive patterns well. I know squat all about half the high level stuff that can be discussed here.  

In reply to by Dsyno

lookslikecraptome FreeMarketAnarchist Sun, 04/15/2018 - 16:36 Permalink

Give me a fucking break moron. On the other side of the coin ur timing is ALL WRONG. Its called trading. If u r such an anarchist y r u in a market to make money hypocrite.  Ur a fucking moron. A single big candle is always suspect. It may not be a bad omen, but it often is. U r to stupid to even consider it but u rag on a person. At least that person is thinking. 

 

In reply to by FreeMarketAnarchist

lookslikecraptome FreeMarketAnarchist Mon, 04/16/2018 - 01:23 Permalink

Nice try kid. if u had any brains and were a trader, u would no it is a zero sum game. a loser for every winner, a correct perception for every misconception. So u are as likely to be wrong as u r to be right. That depends on variables out of ur control in any time frame. U have to be nimble. Hope u r. 

 

You have not a clue about the correct utilization of the term cognitive dissonance. Look up Leon Festinger. Get it right b4 u throw it around

In reply to by FreeMarketAnarchist

lookslikecraptome tmosley Sun, 04/15/2018 - 16:15 Permalink

Amen Mos. Right on the money u be. Last I looked there are very few new wallets being created. You get shit for being interested/invested in stuff/ and them changing ur position. I applaud that. That is called being a facile trader or investor. Kudos. Holding dead money is losing. Cheers. Good u could keep ur ego from getting in the way, having to be right and holding shit in a paper bag and hoping it becomes valuable. 

In reply to by tmosley