Industrial Production Jumps Most In 6 Years Thanks To Cold Weather

Industrial Production rose a better than expected 0.5% MoM in March. However, the rise in IP was driven by a huge 3.1% MoM spike in Utilities after being suppressed in February by warmer-than-normal temperatures.

On a year-over-year basis, that is a 4.26% rise - the biggest annual gain since Feb 2012.

But a closer inspection of the chart above shows that US Industrial Production has only just managed to top its 2014 peak - "recovery"?

We also note that, as @GreekFire23 points out, it is amazing how much of our economy is driven by the auto industry: 70% of the entire retail sales gain yesterday and 20% of the entire annual manufacturing growth today.

The big driver of March's gain was a 3.1% spike in Utilities (after a 5.1% plunge in Feb due to warmer-than-expected weather) with the biggest spike of all in NatGas Utes (up 15.6% MoM in March)...

 

Manufacturing Production growth slowed notably from an upwardly revised +1.5% MoM in Feb to just +0.1% MoM in March (and Mining also slowed dramatically)...

 

US Economic output still has work to do to catch up with the market's lofty hopes...

Comments

spastic_colon Tue, 04/17/2018 - 09:29 Permalink

"The Federal Reserve Board issued its annual revision to the index of industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity utilization on March 23, 2018. New annual benchmark data for 2016 for manufacturing were incorporated, as well as other annual data, including information on the mining of metallic and nonmetallic minerals (except fuels). The updated IP indexes included revisions to the monthly indicator (either product data or input data) and to seasonal factors for each industry. In addition, the estimation methods for some series were changed. Modifications to the methods for estimating the output of an industry affected the index from 1972 to the present.

Capacity and capacity utilization were revised to incorporate data through the fourth quarter of 2017 from the U.S. Census Bureau's Quarterly Survey of Plant Capacity along with new data on capacity from the U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. Department of Energy, and other organizations."

I'm a believer /s

 

Sonny Brakes spastic_colon Tue, 04/17/2018 - 09:46 Permalink

So what you're saying is that the numbers are massaged to falsely lead the masses into believing that things are trending upwards. Believe it or not, some people spend most of their time believing and very little time thinking. It doesn't take a genius to see that our daily headlines are brought to us by people whose vested interests aren't aligned with those of us who buy our ink by the pen full.

In reply to by spastic_colon

gdpetti Sonny Brakes Tue, 04/17/2018 - 09:54 Permalink

And that is a modern take on the analogy of "Platos' Cave"... it's all part of the lessons here in Purgatory... learning to see through the puppet/light show on the cave walls... tv, media, church/temple, etc. the distractions to prevent us waking up and seeing the BS. The numbers have become essentially meaningless over the last few decades... at least since Regan'/bush1... but this number manipulation was always big in religions, wars, etc.... so no surprise. Enjoy the fake light show here in Plato's Cave or learn to leave.... but finding the exit isn't easy... same with the herd of sheeple.... most just go with the flow and follow along.

In reply to by Sonny Brakes