Philly Fed Flashes 'Stagflation Dead-Ahead' Warning As Prices Paid Hits 7-Year High

While Philly Fed's headline index marginally beat expectations, under the hood, things are not so promising as Prices Paid surged to 7 years highs and Prices Received did not (crushing margins).

Worse still, expectations for new orders (down) and prices (up) signal stagflation dead-ahead.


Once again 'soft' survey data is falling back to the reality of weak 'hard' data.


Belrev Thu, 04/19/2018 - 08:47 Permalink

Anyone living in the real world knows this and has been experiencing stagflation for the past 20 years or more.

We know that CPI in USA is not 2%, but more like 10-15%, job prospects have not been good for the past 10-15 years depending on your industry, and wages, nominal and more so real have been flat at best.

Shadowstats confirms this.

blindfaith RabbitOne Thu, 04/19/2018 - 09:18 Permalink

Yes indeed...and these stupid sanctions are going to do more harm to Americans that any Russians.  Aluminum up 20% this month because Russia is the largest producer and the sanctions cut them off at the knees.  That is just one metal, they are all up because of Our Presidents wisdom.  


Indeed America you will pay the price for this farce.  Better go buy that F-150, car, air plane, beer, windows, roofing, and all the rest.  And how will benefit from the sanctions....China as the second largest producer.

Switzerland isn't to happy either, and That means the Vatican is pissed too.


In reply to by RabbitOne

silverer Thu, 04/19/2018 - 08:53 Permalink

Awesome. Is this a green light for me to raise my prices? I now feel it's my civic duty to help inflation along. The banks came up with this crap. Not me.

dirty fingernails Juggernaut x2 Thu, 04/19/2018 - 09:16 Permalink

Yet still mostly cheaper than the cost of US production so only a little more pain, all ye faithful. The upper 10% just need a few more million in the bank before they start allowing the excess to trickle down. Honest, this time they'll share. Just be patient, turn off the electric, and eat your pets in the meantime. We have to tighten our belts so they can buy all our property in foreclosure.

In reply to by Juggernaut x2

bigloser Juggernaut x2 Thu, 04/19/2018 - 09:17 Permalink

Silver holding onto yesterday's gains. Lumber is outta sight. Was thinking of building a shed, now I'm considering digging a cave instead.

Commodity boom and high gas prices will cause a recession and maybe more.

Stocks are in trouble. Looking for big down moves today and possibly tomorrow (options expiry)... I am not Gartman, I hope.

In reply to by Juggernaut x2

Let it Go Thu, 04/19/2018 - 09:26 Permalink

The ECB and other central banks often claim deflation drives or allows their QE policy to remain and is central to their ability to stimulate. The moment inflation begins to take root or becomes apparent much of their flexibility in policy is lost. The 2% inflation target central banks have deemed optimum is not valid.

In the past I have put forth the idea that inflation could rule the day even if central banks are unable to keep the wheels on the bus and the economy collapses. This powerful force also known as stagflation can devastate those improperly invested. The article below explores the basis of this theory.

 http://Inflation Or Deflation Debate Continues.html