The nominal U.S. President, Donald Trump, will meet with the two main European leaders this week with the goal of pushing the President off his position to end the Iran Nuclear Deal, or JCPOA. But it is the bigger issues of energy security that will be the real focus.
From soy-boy Emmanuel Macron of France to the Gelded One of Germany, Angela Merkel, putting the European Union back in its place is one of the few things that Trump may still be able to affect the trajectory of when it comes to foreign policy.
He has no control over Syria, having ceded his authority to the neoconservative crazies who have been wrong about everything since the fall of the Soviet Union. I also don’t think he has much control over negotiations with North Korea.
While everyone on the right keeps talking about how he keeps winning, after the disaster of his strikes on Syria, why would anyone take him seriously during Korean demilitarization talks?
Does anyone think now Donald Trump has the leeway to negotiate an end to the Korean War and make those terms stick?
And if you do, do you think Xi or Putin or Kim himself do?
And that brings me back to Macron and Merkel. They were split on striking Syria. It’s obvious that Macron saw this as an opportunity to up his ‘street cred’ with the globalist oligarchy, cozying up to the U.S. and U.K. and finish what his predecessors started in Syria decades ago.
Macron is positioning himself to replace Merkel as the de facto leader of the EU. He’s been groomed for this position as Merkel’s time on the world stage comes to an end.
While a terminally-weakened Merkel, fielding off political and social unrest at home, saw through the cheap theatre of the U.K.’s machinations to further isolate Russia, i.e. Skripal and the false flag in Syria, refusing to support airstrikes.
Both leaders have raised Trump’s ire. Merkel over not being a good NATO partner and Macron for over-stating his influence with Trump for staying in Syria.
So, suffice it to say there may not be any “beautiful chocolate cake” on this diplomatic table.
In fact, the divisions over many issues may be deep enough that we begin to see real movement from Merkel away from the U.S. and towards the hated Russia.
It has been a staple of geopolitical maneuvering for the past couple hundred years to keep Germany and Russia from forming any sort of real political and economic alliance. And up to now Merkel has been the good soldier, working to align Germany and the EU with the goals of the globalist oligarchy that Trump has been so vocal in wanting to curtail.
This is the basis for their antipathy.
But, her days of being the leader of that front are approaching their end. Deep divisions have opened up in German politics and her coalition with the Social Democrats is thin to the point of being anorexic.
New SPD leader Andrea Nehles is going to be a handful for Merkel. Merkel won’t have a whipped hound as coalition partner for the next four years. So, expect a lot more, dare I say, “Germany First,” from Germany.
And this will lead to problems with Trump and his “Empire First’ cabinet.
Drill, Baby Drill
Because where Merkel and Trump fundamentally disagree is allowing Russia any more access to the European gas market. This is one of the ways in which his neocon Iagos can convince him so easily on staying in the Middle East.
All they have to do is whisper, “Energy security” and “billions in natural gas revenues” and Trump makes the wrong decision every time.
Merkel knows that Germany’s path to independence lies through the Nordstream 2 pipeline as well as extricating itself from the mess that is Ukraine. Energy independence for Germany means Nordstream 2, now that they’ve shuttered their nuclear reactors and the coup in Ukraine has failed to produce leverage over Russia in gas markets.
But, no one in the U.S wants this pipeline built and we’ve threatened the world with nuclear annihilation over it. And that we’ve expended so much political capital in attempting to stop it tells you just how important it is to power brokers in D.C. and London.
The realities are not lost on Trump who has a domestic oil and gas industry to build new markets for while maintaining control over European Union policy.
That’s the song that’s been sung to him over Syria. Don’t kid yourself.
Because the U.S. ousting Assad in Syria delivers a devastating blow to Russia, Iran and China while re-opening pipeline access to Europe per the original plan.
And that’s why Merkel’s abstention on Syria was so significant. It is also why Nordstream will be the most heated discussion between them next week. Not Iran’s nuclear program, but how the U.S. can craft policy that brings ‘energy security’ to Europe which cuts out Russia and curtails China’s plans for central Asian development and integration.
Merkel in the Middle
In other words, same policy, different president.
To this point Merkel has tried to walk the fine line between the loyal NATO/US satrap and unwilling partner in antagonizing the Russians over energy needs. But, Trump has been more than clear in his willingness to screw over all of Europe and Asia just to sell a few tankers of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Poland at prices that ensure Europe’s anti-competitiveness for a generation.
On this idea I don’t think he disagrees with the neocons at all.
Because in the end Trump is a mercantilist, just like I said before he was elected. And while he talks a good game about better deals for the U.S., what he really means is a cheap dollar, protection tariffs and mafioso foreign policy to sell half as many goods at twice the price.
Like all mercantilist policies, it’ll work for a while. And Europe’s own fecklessness has brought it to this position where it’s vulnerable to it. When the sovereign debt crisis begins to hit Europe, it will need the U.S. to help manage it, if possible.
And that’s why Merkel will say nothing that will change the situation one whit.
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