'Soft' Data Continues Collapse: Chicago PMI First YoY Drop in 15 Months

After a 3-month collapse, Chicago PMI rose very modestly in April to 57.6 (from 57.4 in March) but missed expectations (58.0).

However, year-over-year, Chicago PMI fell 1.1 points - the first decline since Jan 2017.

While the headline index managed a very small gain (only 3 subcomponents rose from last month):

  • Prices paid rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion

  • New orders rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion

  • Employment rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion

  • Inventories rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion

  • Supplier deliveries rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion

  • Production rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion

But:

  • Order backlogs fell and the direction reversed, signaling contraction

Did the trend just change?

It appears the trend of 'soft' survey weakness did not...

Trump 'Hope' is almost gone.