ADP Prints Weakest Jobs Gain Since November (After March's Biggest 'Miss' In 7 Years)

Following March's big disappointment in BLS (and surge in ADP), perhaps today's better than expected print for April of +204k (+198k exp) is less relevant than ever. Service-providing jobs rose 160k, goods-producing rose 44k, and March's hot number was revised lower (from 241k to 228k).

Jobs rose in every cohort except "Information"...

“The labor market continues to maintain a steady pace of strong job growth with little sign of a slowdown,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.

“However, as the labor pool tightens it will become increasingly difficult for employers to find skilled talent. Job gains in the high-skilled professional and business services industry accounted for more than half of all jobs added this month. The construction industry, which also relies on skilled labor, continued its six month trend of steady job gains as well.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said,

“Despite rising trade tensions, more volatile financial markets, and poor weather, businesses are adding a robust more than 200,000 jobs per month. At this pace, unemployment will soon be in the threes, which is rarified and risky territory, as the economy threatens to overheat.”

While all eyes are focused on ADP employment data today for a hint ahead of Friday's payrolls print, we remind readers that March saw the biggest 'miss' in 7 years as ADP printed 138k higher than BLS' version of reality...

In fact, as we have pointed out previously, something odd has happened since President Trump was elected - ADP is constantly over-optimistic relative to BLS data, the exact opposite of its regime during Obama's tenure.

Comments

Endgame Napoleon agcw86 Wed, 05/02/2018 - 09:41 Permalink

If I try to navigate the churn-job market again, I fully expect to see the exact same thing that I left: a bunch of jobs staffed by temporary services companies and a bunch of equally ephemeral churn jobs, where coming to work every day, staying at work all day and meeting the sales-generation and account-retention numbers every month is meaningless.

The temp agrncies are staffed by 100% recent college grads who keep you waiting forever after filling out umpteen forms, as they yuck it up in the back rooms, or by 100% back-watching moms who are always gone from work (for kids, for kids) when you need to ask a question, pick up a payment, etc. 

Ditto for most other jobs.

When you get into a job, you see corporate buildings full of people who have been there for less than 2 years except for a couple of managers. The pay is low, even when you have a college degree, four licenses and years of work experience, which count for nothing—less than zero.

Without spousal income, child support that covers rent or free rent and free everything else, in addition to up to $6,431 in EITC refundable child tax credits, it is very difficult to rent an apartment on a temp job, knowing that you will need to secure another job in the next six weeks.

When working churn jobs instead of temp jobs, it is equally difficult to cover all of your bills during the lengthy period of time between the point when a new job starts and the point when you get your first paycheck.

No single momma—no matter how womb productive she is—should be counted as “employed” when all of her major household bills are paid by taxpayers, with her job just giving her a way to stay below the earned-income limits for monthly welfare programs and the income cut off for refundable child tax credits.

Ditto for legal / illegal immigrants, doing the same thing with a male breadwinner, who are not “employed” in a self-supporting manner.

No married momma who is just working part time to add keeping-up-with-the-Jones’ income to an good spousal income should be counted as “employed.”

No divorced mom, with a condo in a posh area funded by child support and a flex-time-momma management job, should be counted as “employed.”

No elderly person, working to supplement Social Security that covers rent and other major bills, should be counted as “employed.”

No college student or teenager, working in the summer for pocket money, should be counted as “employed,” not when her parents pay her major bills, and she has no intention of trying to rent an apartment on the pay.

And yet, in this society, those who need for EARNED INCOME ONLY to cover all household bills are often dishonestly compared to those supplementing unearned income with part-time wages in snarky tones, with no mention of the unearned income that these “employed” people get via sex / reproduction and other means.

Subtract out the workers with unearned income to see how employed this country really is.

In reply to by agcw86

NotGonnaTakeIt… Wed, 05/02/2018 - 08:49 Permalink

Social Security Administration says 300,000 baby boomers retire every month. If that's to be believed, then 204,000 'added' jobs doesn't even replace the 300,000 that left the job market. Looks to me that the country lost 96,000 jobs.  And this has been happening month after month after month. The labor force is contracting and that is the simple truth. This monthly 'jobs report' is truly nonsense.  

Harry Lightning Wed, 05/02/2018 - 09:48 Permalink

In the 15 months since Trump took office, including January, 2017, ADP has overstated the non-farm payrolls eight times, and seven times the non-farm payrolls have exceeded the ADP number.

In the 96 months that obama was in office, including January of 2009, ADP overstated the non-farm payrolls forty seven times, and forty nine times the non-farm payrolls exceeded the ADP number.

So contrary to the article above, ADP has been quite consistent in its overstatement/understatement of non-farm payrolls during the terms of both obama and Trump.

If the ADP report has a drawback, its that their revisions to previously reported data seem to be made to fit the non-farm payroll reports. However, the non-farm payroll initial print is so subject to revision itself in subsequent months that it is not an easy target to hit on first try. The better indicator of employment is the amount of payroll taxes collected, for that represents actual jobs that people are paying withholding taxes from. I often wonder why more attention is not paid to that data series. I wish I could find a monthly breakdown of the payroll taxes collected by the US government, I only have a chart of tax revenue collected by quarter and it lags by half a year. 

William Dorritt Harry Lightning Wed, 05/02/2018 - 11:40 Permalink

Controlling the Narrative is the name of the game.

The IRS certainly knows how much they are collecting to the penny as does the Treasury.

I suspect that any growth in employment is to come from pushing out illegals in the low wage sectors and replacing them with on the books US citizens and Visa holders the chain migration relatives.

My local Dunking Donuts has about 20 nice, ordinary IQ, not engineer, Indian immigrant employees, perhaps the second wave of the Chain migration that needs and qualifies for free stuff.

In reply to by Harry Lightning

Sick of Govern… Wed, 05/02/2018 - 10:19 Permalink

If they have to do a buy back to get investors excited, why is the stock up 6 - 7 dollars.  Apples is not stupid, they will buy it back at a lower rate so when it goes up they make more.

Silver Savior Wed, 05/02/2018 - 10:32 Permalink

I am leaving my job soon. Maybe they will give it to some punk kid at minimum wage. Most likely they will add my job on to the duties of existing staff. 

 

William Dorritt Wed, 05/02/2018 - 11:05 Permalink

FINE AND IMPRISON EMPLOYERS STARTING WITH THE FORTUNE 500

massive fines, asset confiscation to compensate the victims of hiring illegals,

and prison: as accessories to a felony, aiding and abetting and harboring.

Trump's IRS continues to allow fortune 500 meat packers to use stolen and fake tax numbers aka identity theft for up to 1.5 million illegals working inside the USA. Arrest and imprison Federal Employees involved in identity theft, aiding and abetting and providing false information to the IRS, the irony is it is the IRS who does it.

"The only way to address illegal immigration is to address the root cause of it: economics. Employers who hire illegals must be forced to pay stiff fines, which will fund retraining programs for unemployed Americans and reduce taxes for lawful employers. Inspections must increase. States who provide federal benefits to illegals must have their benefits reduced. "

William Dorritt Wed, 05/02/2018 - 11:07 Permalink

SILICONE VALLEY AGENDA

Your article does not lay out the Silicon Valley agenda or the agenda of the majority of the companies.

Judging by their actions, the top agenda item is to replace US Citizens with low cost Foreign citizens by both off shoring jobs and importing low cost replacements via the H1B program.

Not only is the US losing our ability to defend ourselves by off-shoring our factories, especially high tech, we are losing our ability to design the next generations of tech products and defense products.

It's disappointing that the Tech Giants see themselves as separate, apart and above the Citizens of the US.

The Tech Industry has two tangible costs that are substantial:

#1. Labor, solution ditch all US workers.

#2. Bribes to elected officials, and using their companies to support the politicians they own by controlling the flow of news and information to support their meat puppets. The goal of the bribes is to be allowed to violate the monopoly laws and to allow them to continue with goal #1.

William Dorritt Wed, 05/02/2018 - 11:09 Permalink

APPLE CEO VISITS WHITE HOUSE
 

........................AMERICANS NEED NOT APPLY...................

Silicone Valley has only two costs:

+ Labor: which they want to drive to zero with slave workers

+ Politicians: Hillary lost after promising them to eliminate US

Borders to allow in and out unlimited Slave Workers

+ According to Max Kaiser, almost all of their tech comes out of

DARPA aka the US taxpayers.

 

Prominent Foreign Born Tech CEOs

CEO Microsoft: Satya Narayana Nadella. India

CEO Google: Sundar Pichai. India

CEO Adobe: Shantanu Narayen. India

CEO Syntel: Bharat Desai. India

CTO EVP Comsast: Sree Kotay, India

CEO Twitter: Omid Kordestani. Iranian born, Google Alumni

Actually the list is much longer, this list began with Kotay leading the charge for no borders at a Comcast rally, laughing at his idiot employees cheering to have their jobs replaced

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fHHokZEVrcU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dhhHdhG6Wng

William Dorritt Wed, 05/02/2018 - 11:12 Permalink

TRUMP should charge a $100,000 processing fee pr yr  for

every H1b visa to offset the cost of the laid off US Citizen

 

IF YOU CAN'T EXPORT THE JOB, IMPORT THE WORKER

....................AMERICANS NEED NOT APPLY..........................

Americans and American products are systematically discriminated against by Law.

US companies who want to hide behind the US military and courts and live in our country must hire the Americans who protect them and their money.

 

5,000,000 Green Cards = 1 Million+ 1MM Immigrants per year legal.

0,800,000 DACA Green Cards

0,950,000 H1Bs 3-6 years, 300,000 new H1B workers in yearly

0,373,000 L-1 Work Visa's up to 5 years, 74,719 new yearly

0,090,000 H2A seasonal (Hotel at the beach ?)

1,000,000 J1 Teachers, 0,320,000 J1 per yr, teachers, professors, researchers, (au pair) etc.

0,385,000 F1 Foreign Students, compete with US Citizens for the limited

.................space at Taxpayer funded Universities. Multi year

0,056,000 H2A Agricultural Workers seasonal

Note 1.): Gov only lists stats 2010 or earlier, inexplicably.

Note 2.): The FEDs leave the Country of Origin blank for 50% of the new Green Cards issued.

Note 3.): There are Millions of B-1 Tourist and Business Visa holders that never leave the US

Source: US Gov Immigrant Visa – Immigration Statistics

https://www.immigrationdirect.com/immigration-statistics/immigrant-visas.jsp

Nonimmigrant Admissions By Class Of Admission: Fiscal Years 2014 To 2016

https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics/yearbook/2016/table25

https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics/yearbook

 

H-1B WORKERS IN THE U.S. – DATA

http://globalworkers.org/iii-h-1b-workers-us-%E2%80%93-data

 

Almost One Million H-1B Foreign Workers Hold University-Level Jobs

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/03/14/goldman-sachs-almost-one-million-h-1b-foreign-workers-hold-university-level-jobs/

 

US labor force participation down from 67% in 2000 to 63% 2018

https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cps_charts.pdf

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

 

#1 Lobbyist in USA = U.S. Chamber of Commerce $103,950,000

U.S. Chamber of Commerce = China Inc, no borders, H1Bs, unlimited immigration

http://www.thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/business-a-lobbying/318177-lobbyings-top-50-whos-spending-big

 

8 U.S. Code § 1182 - Inadmissible aliens

(5) Labor certification and qualifications for certain immigrants

(A) Labor certification

(i) In generalAny alien who seeks to enter the United States for the purpose of performing skilled or unskilled labor is inadmissible, unless the Secretary of Labor has determined and certified to the Secretary of State and the Attorney General that—

(I) there are not sufficient workers who are able, willing, qualified (or equally qualified in the case of an alien described in clause (ii)) and available at the time of application for a visa and admission to the United States and at the place where the alien is to perform such skilled or unskilled labor, and

(II) the employment of such alien will not adversely affect the wages and working conditions of workers in the United States similarly employed.

https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/8/1182

 

25-40 million illegals are now in the US

http://www.cairco.org/issues/how-many-illegal-aliens-reside-united-states

Map Shows Sanctuary City Islands of Blue In Sea of Red

http://www.infowars.com/map-shows-sanctuary-city-islands-of-blue-in-sea-of-red/

 

70,000 Factories and 5 Million Manufacturing Jobs

exported under Globalists Bush, Clinton, Obama.

NAFTA, WTO-CHINA both Bill Clinton

William Dorritt Wed, 05/02/2018 - 11:14 Permalink

FRUIT OF 40 YEARS OF GLOBALISM

Unemployment Rate for November 2016 is 22.8%.

ShadowStats: Alternate Unemployment Charts

The seasonally-adjusted SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994 (NAFTA and China WTO both by Clinton). That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers.

 

The U-3 unemployment rate is the monthly headline number. The U-6 unemployment rate is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) broadest unemployment measure, including short-term discouraged and other marginally-attached workers as well as those forced to work part-time because they cannot find full-time employment....

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

 

The Real Brainard Bloodbath Beckons

by David Stockman • September 14, 2016

actual “unemployment rate” is 43%

"There are 210 million American of working age between 18 and 68, implying about 420 billion potential labor hours per year. That’s based on the idea that every adult is potentially capable of contributing 2000 hours per year to society’s need for work and production. However, according to the bean-counters at the BLS, only 240 billion labor hours were actually supplied to the US economy in the most recent year."

 

"In fact, the resulting total of 180 billion hours of unmonetized potential labor implies the actual “unemployment rate” is 43%. So, yes, we do have some slack!"

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/tuesday-was-a-warm-up-the-real-bra

 

John Williams' Shadow Government Statistics 2016 http://www.shadowstats.com says unemployment, as calculated as it was before the Feral government defined away the problem, is ~23%.

The Federal government's Bozos of LYING Statistics says unemployment is less than 5%.

William Dorritt Wed, 05/02/2018 - 11:15 Permalink

US needs ZERO Immigration for 50 years, mass dislocation on the way.
 

Jeb Bush warns robots taking US jobs is not science fiction

By Daniel Chaitin, Wash Examiner 4/2/17

A report from PricewaterhouseCoopers last month says up to 38 percent of jobs in the U.S. are "susceptible" to automation and artificial intelligence by the early 2030s.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/jeb-bush-warns-robots-taking-us-jobs-is-not-science-fiction/article/2619145#!

William Dorritt Wed, 05/02/2018 - 11:20 Permalink

KANSAS CITY STAR

Updated April 05, 2018 12:20 PM

Think college students are privileged?

Nearly a third (Americans) are hungry and homeless

"We are pretty busy," Garey said. "At the end of the semester, we start recognizing that students no longer have food on their meal plans or maybe their financial aid has run out or they have given up a job so they can study, so they no longer have that income."

And that lost income could also impact housing. Nearly as many of those who are food insecure don't have secure housing. The U.S. Department of Education describes the homeless as "lacking fixed, regular, adequate housing," which includes those living in shelters, hotels, cars, tents or "couch surfing" at friends’ houses.

http://www.kansascity.com/news/local/article207845959.html

 

Why not charge a $20,000 application fee for each H1b and a 100,000 processing fee plus a $25,000 yr update fee;

To compensate the displaced American worker

The USA needs ZERO H1b Workers, we have the best in the world already, it's all about Slave workers and breaking us.

William Dorritt Wed, 05/02/2018 - 11:26 Permalink

Author unknown, response to limiting work visas

Technical superiority of the workforce is a matter of National Security.

"The system has to be changed.

Or approve zero (work visas) and force US companies who want to hide behind the US military and courts and live in our country (and) to hire the Americans who protect them and their money.

China and Saudi spent hundreds of millions trying to get Hilary, and Russia financed her Foundation ($150MM) for the Uranium.

If you mean not Marxist, not corporatism, not anti-Christian, not anti-American, not anti-American-workers, not anti traditional family, then yes Trump is on the fringe of the freak show (Establishment, Elite and Deep State) that has been in power. (since the first bullet hit Kennedy in Dallas)"

 

Technical superiority of the workforce is a matter of National Security.

"Although corporations are state creations, the Federal government has power over them.

An executive order revoking the Employee Identification Numbers (EIN) of these traitor corporations would shut these corporations down by preventing them from doing bank transactions or paying anyone.

They would immediately cease to exist. Instant removal of the Boards of Directors and CEO's would allow the government to replace them with (US) citizens that would run these companies with an "America First" mindset.

No loss to the investors or employees. These Communist-Socialist-Progressive-Liberal traitor parasite directors and CEO's would finally have to get a real job."

William Dorritt Wed, 05/02/2018 - 11:28 Permalink

IRS AIDS AND ABETS ILLEGAL ALIENS....SESSIONS SLEEPS

 

IRS Documented 1.3M Identity Thefts by Illegal Aliens;

Can’t Say It Referred Any for Prosecution

CNS By Terence P. Jeffrey | March 16, 2018

The Internal Revenue Service in 2011 through 2016 documented more than 1.3 million cases of identity theft perpetrated by illegal aliens whom the IRS had given Individual Taxpayer Identification Numbers (ITIN), which are only given to people who are ineligible to work in the United States or receive Social Security Numbers, according to information published by the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration (TIGTA).

However, in response to inquiries from CNSNews.com, the IRS could not say if it had referred even one of these cases for criminal prosecution.

https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/terence-p-jeffrey/irs-documented-13m-identity-thefts-illegal-aliens-cant-say-it

 

IRS won't warn a half-million victims about undocumented workers stealing their Social Security numbers

WTHR Published: Aug 30th, 2017 -Updated: Sep 1st, 2017

"millions of undocumented workers secretly obtain a Social Security number that belongs to someone else so they can get a job. The IRS allows (and even encourages) undocumented workers to include both of those numbers on their tax returns -- even though it shows clear evidence of identity theft.

WTHR exposed how the IRS instructs its workers to ignore the crime and to process the tax returns anyway.

“We are not supposed to do anything. Just let it go,” an IRS whistleblower told WTHR in 2015."

https://www.wthr.com/article/irs-wont-warn-a-half-million-victims-about-undocumented-workers-stealing-their-social

 

IRS Commissioner: 2.7 MILLION taxpayers had identities stolen last year

Posted 3:53 pm, June 2, 2015, by CNN Wire Service

Tax refund fraud exploded between 2010 and 2012,” Koskinen said. And it’s only gotten worse since then. Between 2011 and 2014, the IRS spotted and halted $63 billion worth of fraudulent tax refunds. But the IRS paid identity thieves $5.2 billion in 2011 alone.

U.S. Senator Bill Nelson of Florida mentioned how many Americans are actually affected by this kind of thing, noting 2.7 million taxpayers were identity theft victims last year.

http://fox6now.com/2015/06/02/irs-commissioner-2-7-million-taxpayers-had-identities-stolen-last-year/

William Dorritt Wed, 05/02/2018 - 11:31 Permalink

TRUMP SPEECH PA 2016

1) Chase the illegals out. ☑

2) Either break or renegotiate NAFTA. ☑

3) Build a wall with American labor and Mexico's money. ☑

4) Calls most of the MSM liars and dishonest people. ☑

5) Defend the second amendment. ☑

6) Scrap Obamacare and put in something much better. ☑

7) Scares the Republican party and simply terrifies the communists. ☑

8) Make other countries we protect pay for the service. ☑

9) End Common Core. ☑

10) Audit the FED. ☑

11) A proper investigation of 911. ☑

12) Prosecute Hillary. ☑

13) Investigate the high cost of prescription drugs. ☑

14) Dismissed Political Correctness as a Form of Insanity ☑

15) Tear up the Iran agreement that gave them billions for nothing in return. ☑

16) Cut funds to the Bureau of Land Management. ☑

17) Cut funds to the Department of Education.☑

18) Leave laws promoting queerdom to individual states. ☑

19) Build 300 mph super trains like Japan’s to crisscross the US. ☑

20) Bring back clean coal. ☑

21) Make corporations hire from unemployed, rather than immigration lists. ☑

22) Stop the TPP. ☑

23) Create Safe Zones in places like Syria and make them pay for them. ☑

24) Appoint Supreme Court Judges who will MAGA and follow the Constitution.

 

(Release the Kennedy Assassination files in full, no black outs to  hide the names of the guilty)

William Dorritt Wed, 05/02/2018 - 11:34 Permalink

The Oligopoly narrative is that Trumps policies don't work, the reality is that they are working despite the opposition from Mitch and Paul, and the 94% of the Federal Workers who voted for Hilary.

Author unknown

INFORMATION WARFARE: BATTLE OF THE NARRATIVE

......all that matters is what people believe

The real legacy of Obama is it proved once and for all that the concept of “governing by narrative” is a total failure. Obama's terms can be describe as a "battle of the narrative" vs reality.

The battle of the narrative is a military concept and can be explained thus:

"Emerging U.K. and U.S. military doctrine posits that conflicts of the future are likely to be defined equally, if not more, by the centrality of influence.

Adversaries have recognized the strategic benefits of influencing perceptions; and will continue to exploit information and communications technology advances to this end.

In a competition of contesting narratives, information will flash around the world in near real time, challenging the abilities of governments and established news networks to react in a timely fashion.

Near global transparency increases the risk of inconsequential military incidents being turned into strategic events with adverse connotations. To win the battle of the narratives, the U.K.’s security apparatus must be able to wield influence at all levels, across multiple media, within joint, multinational and inter-agency environments at a much higher tempo than present"

http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/aw...

In other words the facts on the ground doesn't really matter; all that matters is what people believe. The Tet offensive is a good example. Where the US crushed the offensive militarily but lost the narrative battle and it was considered a defeat in the minds of the public.

The battle of the narrative only works when you have 100% control of the tools of communications. The Obama and Clinton teams made sure they had 100% control over the legacy press media and therefore thought they could control the narrative battle-space. The rise of an equal and powerful social media (Drudge, ZH, Breitbart, InfoWars etc) to fight the left's narrative caught them by surprise.

The social media before Nov 8th 2016 was thought to be "fringe" and not powerful enough to beat the powerful (6 company 85% share) media.

In effect what happened during Obama's admin and Clinton campaign was the same thing that happened to the British troops during the revolutionary war.

The war is not won yet but as long as there is Freedom of speech and the tools to spread the truth the governing by "narrative" as opposed to reality will always be a failure.

 

NSA White Paper by Satanist Employee of NSA

https://archive.org/stream/pdfy-Mv-q4qGq8_TBPcwL/Michael+Aquino+%28US+Satanist%29+-+From+PSYOP+to+MindWar+-+The+Psychology+of+Victory+%281980%29_djvu.txt