Then, on April 30, just over a month after his "watershed" call that "equity markets have hit multi-year highs", Gartman decided to turn bullish again, stating that what he so solemnly declared 6 weeks ago was the end of the bull market was really just a correction and was going long stocks. The S&P has fallen since, although it is unclear if Gartman has been stopped out.
Ironically, in his latest letter, it appears he has turned neutral again, and is on the verge of going bearish once again.
the CNN Fear & Greed Index, having fallen to single digits and to severely over-sold territory several weeks ago, has risen just upward through 40 to “neutral” market territory. If history is to repeat itself, we are likely to see this index make its way eventually toward 70 or 80 sooner rather than later indicating that the market has become materially over-bought. When that happens… or more properly “if” that happens… we shall err bearishly of shares here in the US, but until then we’ll adopt and embrace a neutral view on shares here generally.
In fact, he goes so far as endorsing a US short, once again:
we cannot… and we will not… argue with those who might wish to establish positions long of shares in Japan and Europe while short of the broad indices here in the US.
But the punchline of the latest Gartman letter is that after he was stopped out in very short notice in both oil and the Nasdaq, the "world-renowned commodity guru" has picked another asset class to terrorize, just hours ahead of the Fed: Treasurys.
And much to the delight of bond bulls everywhere, we can confirm that Gartman is officially short "bonds". To wit:
NEW RECOMMENDATION: The bond market has rallied ever-so-slightly in the course of the past several days, taking it from being aggressively over-sold back to neutrality and in protracted bear markets neutrality is about all that one can ask.
We need to remember that the bond market is now two years into a bear market and that the supposed line-in-the-sand at 3% will prove ephemeral as the ten year trades to 4% and perhaps 5% over the course of the next two or three years.
We are sellers of the ten year here, willingly risking the yield to drop to 2.92 from 2.98 presently, and when the yield moves upward through 3.02 again we shall add to short positions.
As we write, the ten-year note future is trading 119 11/3nds.
You'll never guess what happened next...