Stocks Near Worst Start To A Year Since 2002; Bonds, Bitcoin, & Bullion Bid

Today's market...

S&P and Dow both broke below their 200DMAs but the intraday chart of cash indices today shows the massive rebound off the 200DMA (that began as Europe closed)..

And took stocks back to unchanged... and by the miracle of machines and VIX crushing algos, The Dow closed green!!!

All thanks to a 50 point Dow rip in the last 90 seconds of the day...

For context, Dow futures tumbled 400 points at the lows, before ripping back almost 500 points to the highs and into the green

Small Caps briefly went red YTD, but that also seemed to spark a bounce...

Gold and The Long Bond remain bid since yesterday's FOMC Statement, the dollar is lower along with stocks...


Despite the best earnings season in 24 years, The Dow is suffering the worst start to a year since 2009...

And, at the lows today, The S&P is having its worst yearly start since 2002...

As Market Watch reports, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, of the 343 companies, or about 70%, of S&P 500 members that have reported earnings to date, 79.9% have reported earnings per share that were above analysts’ expectations, putting the season on track for the highest earnings beat rate on record, going back to 1994.

Musk was massacred....

Banks were battered then panic-bid...


Before we leave stock-land, this made us smile... Hong Kong and Chinese stocks were slammed early on as HKMA chief warned the public to prepare for volatility and the currency tumbled back to the lower end of the peg BUT just as the trade talks began, Chinese stocks - particularly the tech stocks under most scrutiny - rocketed higher..."cough National Team cough"


Treasury yields extended their drop from yesterday's Fed statement...the whole curve is now lower on the week...


With 10Y holding well below 3.00%...


And the yield curve flattening once again... (2s10s erased all the steepening post-FOMC)


The Dollar drifted lower erasing the FOMC Spike, back below Tuesday's close...


But the Argentine Peso plunged (the worst performing currency in the world today despite a 300bps hike)...


While the peso plunged, bitcoin and his brothers bounced...


Commodities ended the day higher but crude was the big v-shaped recovery play intraday...


Finally - it's official, there is no hope! For the first time since Trump's election, 'soft' survey data has no implicit hope-premium in it over real 'hard' data...



Solosides Thu, 05/03/2018 - 16:02 Permalink

Who needs markets when the fed will back the coke-n-hookers truck right up to your loading dock?

And for you millenials: when you make your millions off of crypto. Be sure to immediately blow it on a Lamborghini and all the drugs your heart can handle.

regular Coinista Thu, 05/03/2018 - 16:20 Permalink

bitcoin is for the 1%
owned and operated and manipulated by the 1% rockfellows, soros, rothchildren.

why support your own enslavement?

buy holochain $HOT coins dumbasses and stop promoting slavery. free yourselves so you dont have to advertise btc to a bunch of strangers so you get a measly 1% gain.

buy it, and stop fucking with bitcoins. this is advice from a crypto trader that has been in it from the beginning. i have many satoshis and enjoy what btc has done. after awareness has been achieved beyond our 10% goal, its time to look ahead to the next stage of ows op.

part two of the revolution does not involve the 1% silly.

In reply to by Coinista

Exponere Mendaces Bitchface-KILLAH Thu, 05/03/2018 - 20:10 Permalink

What an ignorant altforking faggot.

The moment you swallowed Very Wrong Ver's cumload of "Core", you were doomed to being the one that chortles his balls.

There are many contributors to Bitcoin, 'core' is only 2 - 3% of the total. Look it up asshole, its on Github.

Lightning network lets you buy whatever bullshit you'd want for a single satoshi fee.

So stuff it with your fucking avatar and your Ver-isms.

In reply to by Bitchface-KILLAH

regular Bitchface-KILLAH Thu, 05/03/2018 - 16:25 Permalink

bch, funny about what has been going on with "bcash" getting sued for stealing the name bitcoin or whatever. talking fraud over a 1000+ in the lawsuit with that dude.

when are you going to get off the banker coin and get some real money that isnt affiliated with the worthless greenback. why continue bringing down your currency linking it to a worthless out-of-date fiat? linking the fiat to a digital makes it go down in value. the fiat is worthless and out dated, soon you will not be able to trade it in. like a penny laying on the side walk that everybody walks by. worthless pos.

buy holochain and help us develop the future internet without the scum of the past. unless you like scum.

In reply to by Bitchface-KILLAH

Exponere Mendaces Bitchface-KILLAH Thu, 05/03/2018 - 20:12 Permalink

The discovery phase on your dancing monkey boy leader Very Wrong Ver should be hilarious.

Once a convict, always a convict.

I guess he was hankering for a deep-dicking, so he fucked up enough to be sued for fraud.

Ver's strategy of using the Bitcoin name to pump his altfork is duplicitous and underhanded. Only idiots like you can't see the difference, its a bit of a mental litmus test -- and you failed.

In reply to by Bitchface-KILLAH

Dilluminati Yellow_Snow Thu, 05/03/2018 - 17:53 Permalink

Where is a woman with her head in the sand when you need her?

Deflation is what happens when too many debts chase too few dollars..

Well I don't know why I came here tonight,
I got the feeling that something ain't right,
I'm so scared in case I fall off my chair,
And I'm wondering how I'll get down the stairs,
Clowns to the left of me,
Jokers to the right, here I am,
Stuck in the middle with you

Yes I'm stuck in the middle with you,
And I'm wondering what it is I should do,
It's so hard to keep this smile from my face,
Losing control, yeah, I'm all over the place,
Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right,
Here I am, stuck in the middle with you

Well you started out with nothing,
And you're proud that you're a self made man,
And your friends, they all come crawlin,
Slap you on the back and say,
Please, please

Trying to make some sense of it all,
But I can see that it makes no sense at all,
Is it cool to go to sleep on the floor,
'Cause I don't think that I can take anymore
Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right,
Here I am, stuck in the middle with you

Well you started out with nothing,
And you're proud that you're a self made man,
And your friends, they all come crawlin,
Slap you on the back and say,
Please, please

Well I don't know why I came here tonight,
I got the feeling that something ain't right,
I'm so scared in case I fall off my chair,
And I'm wondering how I'll get down the stairs,
Clowns to the left of me,
Jokers to the right, here I am,
Stuck in the middle with you,
Yes I'm stuck in the middle with you,
Stuck in the middle with you, here I am stuck in the middle with you

In reply to by Yellow_Snow

Kaiser Sousa Thu, 05/03/2018 - 16:05 Permalink

“Just get it back above 24,000 and hold it there this time will you!”

- Jerome Powell -i

they sure gave it the old college try now didn’t they??? i mean can it b any more obvious the disdain “they” hold 4 the intelligence of Ameridumb’s by continuing to play the "24k = everything ok” perception management game, day after day, week after week, and month after month???

leave it to the resident “technical experts” to explain to all of ya’ 2days 400 point plus ramp of the Dow Jones Propaganda Index eliminating ALL loses on ABSOLUTELY NO SUBSTANTIVE or POSITIVE MACRO-ECONOMIC NEWS/DATA WHATSOFUCKINGEVER...



Aaronson.Jones… Kaiser Sousa Thu, 05/03/2018 - 16:27 Permalink

Ok so, here's my effort... with NFP tomorrow I was surprised to see SPX drop as far as BB2 (goes to show what I know). Looked way out of kilter with such a news event coming so reaction was to be expected. VWAP (or equivalent) is important to institutions (data helps th eprice move but isn't necessarily necessary) so the move looks mad but wasn't necessarily unexpected. Check out SPX into NFPs this year, EMA20 & environs is the place price wants to be. Long off the break back above BB2 was a decent play today. Hopefully the market can do what you expect tomorrow but there's nothing easy there (I've lost plenty trying to understand) & you'd pull your hair out waiting for the crash (which I am & could still get hammered on my long term shorts but hey, that's the way it goes :-)) Happy hunting.

In reply to by Kaiser Sousa

Keltner Channel Surf Aaronson.Jones… Thu, 05/03/2018 - 17:25 Permalink

And here I thought no one was reading my posts, but you've reproduced some of my most important notions (20EMA as a 'neutral' center for M-R algos before a key data release, BB 2.0 as the most reliably-reversed Daily quant level, etc.)

Had you mentioned the Keltner 2.0 on the DOW (Bollinger #2 was sliced clean thru, perhaps dollar worries), you'd have gotten bonus points though, to be fair, I have to ding you for mentioning VWAP -- in fact this was MUCH more than a VWAP retrace, that level was left in the dust on all indices shortly after noon -- and for not noticing that nothing came close to their 20EMAs, making this a more 'bearish' pre-NFP than usual.

Still, it nearly brings a tear to the eye, and gives my life renewed meaning to return here amidst the continued snarling.  Thanks.

In reply to by Aaronson.Jones…

TradingTroll Keltner Channel Surf Thu, 05/03/2018 - 19:35 Permalink

These days I haven’t been very inclined to participate in the churlish ‘death to the moneychangers’ thread but if you’re talking technicals, you’ve piqued my interest.


Off the Jan 26 Dow top we started an ABC Wave correction. Wave A down is ending possibly next week. Today we were in Wave 3 down of Wave 5 (Wave 5, the final wave of the A wave of the ABC). Wave 3s are often the most impulsive. But Wave 4 (up) of Wave 5 started in today’s session. That was the corrective rally. It’s not intervention. Possibly Wave 4 ends by tomorrow. Then we have the final Wave 5 (down) of 5 for next week. That should end A, and then we can assess the strength of the B up. 

If this is a simple ABC corrective then the termination should be October.


But if we have started a longer bear market the ABC will start to look more like a 1-5 wave pattern over time and termination of the end of this downturn will be past October.

In reply to by Keltner Channel Surf

Keltner Channel Surf TradingTroll Thu, 05/03/2018 - 20:28 Permalink

Much as I appreciate an anti-'moneychanger' poster, and wish you luck in your trading,  I can't say I embrace any old school TA, such as wave theories or any chart 'patterns', given they seem to me as merely descriptive post-hoc and are open to varying interpretation.  I'm convinced bottom-up mean-reversion in multiple time frames, in which potential bounce points can be determined in advance, often to the penny, then 'below the chart' indicators, adapted for the new regime, used to determine which of a dozen or so candidates will ultimately cause the final bounce (or end point, for wick-less bars), realizing that competing factions are battling to make their scenarios work out in varying time frames, is the best way to battle current algo families.

Today, all 4-5 of the major index ETFs bounced from targets that a reversion trader would have identified as a candidate on hourly, weekly or Daily charts.  These were all to the penny or damn close, which I don't believe 'waves' or trend lines could ever give you, though grabbing them intraday as they're fluttering like dragonflies on shorter charts (say the 5m) is more challenging than seeing what happened after the close.  I'm convinced that things like waves or Fibbi  'work' only when they happen, purely by chance, to line up with these moving envelopes (or a dozen other overlay targets I've never mentioned, can't give everything away).  It's the ability to have a list of precise targets (though of course they do move a bit with each bar, so patience, or building over multiple shorter bars, is advisable) that puts intraday reversion over the top, as it allows you to flip each 15 min on the 5-minute chart, then embrace a larger hourly or Daily target, on the fly, with years and years of practice.

But, I'm not foolish enough to say waves can't work for anyone, so if they do for you, more power to you.  Happy trading.


In reply to by TradingTroll

Aaronson.Jones… Keltner Channel Surf Fri, 05/04/2018 - 02:27 Permalink

Learning from the best! I'm too conservative for Kelt 2.0 & it's not tight enough for SPX anyway so have tinkered somewhat there. Lined up well today. I also give credence to the channel surfing &, to a lesser extent, wave counts on the daily/ weekly charts. For me, in the overall picture, there's still a herd mentality (fear & greed). People still see places to exit, & reach capitulation points, at the same time, leading to, for example, large equity fund outflows over the course of the same week. Maybe these points are not as clean as they once were but this downtrend has been clean(ish) thus far from where I'm watching.

In reply to by Keltner Channel Surf

Keltner Channel Surf Aaronson.Jones… Fri, 05/04/2018 - 05:34 Permalink

Yes, it does seem Keltners are taking more of a back seat to Bollingers, just like small SUVs sell more than cars, current fashion, thinking of changing my handle to "Bollinger Band Surf" but that sounds like the Beach Boys, not my favorite style of music.

It sounds like many folks, perhaps you're one, hold positions (or perhaps options) and watch the Daily/Weekly charts, which means you can take advantage of gap days that go nowhere, frustrating intraday-only traders like myself.  Don't think I'd ever sleep with positions on, so everyone has to pick their poison, or dessert, as the case presents itself.  Sounds like you have a handle on things from a perspective that matches the method, and that's the key, and the hardest marriage to find.  Happy Trading.

In reply to by Aaronson.Jones…

JLarryL Thu, 05/03/2018 - 16:08 Permalink

Stock buyback time is here!

Almost incredible to think about that $25 billion Apple spent buying stock during the first quarter. Looks like the stock lost a couple bucks during that time. Poof! The magic of Wall Street avarice turns $25 billion into a few million in commissions.

regular Thu, 05/03/2018 - 16:14 Permalink

fuck the bitcoin/alt banker manipulation
stealing the hard earned money of the poor people of the world,
bitcoin is centralized and owned by a 1% group again! its lost its purpose for good. btc is over.

support the new internet
called holochain

666D Chess Thu, 05/03/2018 - 16:15 Permalink

If you feel disgusted by the manipulation of the markets to benefit the super rich at the expense of everyone else, dump their money and buy cryptos. Hit them where it hurts. Gold and silver are a lost cause. Only one out of ten people would have physical gold hidden at home I would say, the rest think that it is "dangerous" and that it is better to have it stored at a bank because most of the people walking around are fucking retarded. This is what allows banks to sell precious metals that they don't have through the creation of a non-existent infinite supply of gold and silver. Act accordingly, cryptos are a feasible monetary system that makes central banks and governments irrelevant. Join the revolution or get left behind bitter and poor on the side of the road covered in mud counting your gold coins. Don't let the big banks on Wall Street jump into cryptos before you do and get screwed once again. They have screwed all of us enough with the manipulation of precious metals. 

Blankfuck Thu, 05/03/2018 - 18:25 Permalink

Shame this FED FUCKER PRESERVE market cant go down to 70% less than it currently is and where it belongs.



arrowrod Thu, 05/03/2018 - 18:42 Permalink

My Home Depot store has a GIANT help wanted sign.  Will hire 16 year olds.

These are the best times of my life (except for the being old part).