California Residents Flee, Chased Away By Soaring Home Prices And Cost Of Living

Last month, a Wall Street Journal op-ed posited that the new tax bill could create a mass exodus of roughly 800,000 residents from the state of California who will flee the state for low-tax red states. 

In the years to come, millions of people, thousands of businesses, and tens of billions of dollars of net income will flee high-tax blue states for low-tax red states. This migration has been happening for years. But the Trump tax bill’s cap on the deduction for state and local taxes, or SALT, will accelerate the pace. The losers will be most of the Northeast, along with California. The winners are likely to be states like Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee, Texas and Utah.” -WSJ

Taxes aside, a new report by Next 10 and Beacon Economics suggests the California exodus may get a lot worse, as new housing construction since the Great Recession has been tepid at best, and as a result, California faces a housing backlog of 3.4 million units by 2025 if the trend continues - and 2.8 million units at the current rate of construction. 

From 2007 to 2017, only 24.7 housing permits were filed for every 100 new residents in California – much lower than the U.S. average of 43.1 permits.

By 2025, California would have a housing backlog of 3.4 million units if the trend continues. At the current pace of construction, California would add just a minimal amount of new housing – about 600,000 new housing units (net of housing unit losses due to demolition and other causes) – leaving the state with a housing gap of 2.8 million units by 2025. -Next10

"California’s current housing supply is not able to support its growing population," the report concludes, and as such "the low levels of construction will likely result in further increases in home prices, such that fewer and fewer California residents will be able to afford homes."

According to the report, California lost over a million residents in the decade between 2006 and 2016, due primarily to the high cost of housing disproportionately hurting lower income households. Over 20% of those who moved over that decade did so in 2006 - at the height of the housing bubble.


And since American consumers are genetically predisposed to never learning from their mistakes, median home prices in California are once again gapping well above the national average in a very similar pattern, making housing once again prohibitively expensive:

Meanwhile, migration out of California is mostly tied to income, as most of those leaving the state earn less than $30,000 per year.

Those migration patterns are shaped by socioeconomics. Most people leaving the state earn less than $30,000 per year, even as those who can afford higher housing costs are still arriving. As the report noted, California was also a net importer of highly skilled professionals from the information, professional and technical services, and arts and entertainment industries. On the other hand, California saw the largest exodus of workers in accommodation, construction, manufacturing and retail trade industries. -MarketWatch

Crunched California homeowners spent an average of 21.9% of their income on housing expenses in 2016, while home ownership rates are terrible at just 53.6% of homes owner-occupied; the 49th worst in the nation on both counts. California renters meanwhile come in 48th in the nation when it comes to percentage of income spent on housing at 32.8%.

And how are Californians coping with the skyrocketing costs of housing? One strategy is doubling up - as nearly 14% of renters have more than one person per bedroom, making it the state with the highest percentage of overcroweded renter households

Another solution? 

Leaving

In a separate analysis noted by MarketWatch's Andrea Riquier, "Realtor.com found that the number of people searching real estate listings in the 16 top California markets compared to people living there and searching elsewhere was more than double that of other areas — and growing."

Searches for homes in pricey California towns - primarily Santa Clara, San Mateo and Los Angeles - experienced virtually no increase over the past year, while views of listings in other parts of the country were up 15%. 

So where do most broke Californians move? Texas, Arizona, Nevada, Oregon and Washington . 

Read the report below: 

Comments

Shillinlikeavillan evoila Tue, 05/08/2018 - 03:02 Permalink

I lived in van nuys(lost angeles) for four years back in 2014 and it was bad back then. I can remember little children digging in my garbage cans when I went outside to smoke...

The homeowners can actually afford their house... after they convert the garage into a "guest house" and proceed to pack it with as many immigrants as they can physically put in there...

Illegal immigrants are just slaves... a rolling money bloodbank thats keeping the whole thing going... I wonder when they will finally wise up to the idea that they are nothing more than useful idiots for the pols/bloodsuckers and head back home...

Hopefully soon, to end the whole charade...

In reply to by evoila

STP Shillinlikeavillan Tue, 05/08/2018 - 11:45 Permalink

I grew up there, from 1970 and on.  You should've seen it, back in the early 70's.  It was beautiful.  There were still citrus groves and we even had an egg ranch a few blocks away, with hundreds of chickens.  The guy who ran it, old Mr. Spracklen, had a small grapefruit and orange grove as well, at the old style ranch house.  He had a little outdoor stand, next to the house, with an old fridge and sold the best brown eggs, I've ever had.  You'd ring the bell on a Saturday morning and he'd come out in his striped coveralls, smoking a pipe, wearing a beret and kindly ask what you needed this fine morning.   Dairies were still around too, with cows and fresh milk, distributed locally.

And then, in the early 80's they started importing tens of thousands of illegals and that's when the cancer started.  The beautiful San Fernando Valley, slowly became an overcrowded shithole.  The big ranch homes, with acreage were torn down, to be replaced by stucco box houses.  They built up, right next to the egg farm, complained about the smell and forced it to close.  Continous Traffic congestion became the norm.  Fine neighborhood markets became bizarre third world stores.

The Schlitz brewery on Woodman, vanished.  Then the GM Plant in Van Nuys, gone.  All the major manufacturing moved out and was replaced with fruit vendors selling questionable goods on the sidewalks.  Now all of SoCal is a traffic nightmare.  The 405 is the worst freeway you can possibly be on.  Along with the 101, the 5, the 170, the 14, 605, 61, 57 and on and on.  And let's not even get started on the growing monster of state, county and local government!

In reply to by Shillinlikeavillan

JelloBeyonce evoila Tue, 05/08/2018 - 08:20 Permalink

What exactly is "fake news"?
Is it newspapers like the WSJ "reporting" on the "mass exodus" of a "blue" state like California, whilst the truth is that CA is still seeing a net gain in population?

How does a mass exodus result in a net gain?
I guess the devil is in the definition.

If one takes a look at the top 10 states seeing a net loss in population, 8 of those top 10 are "low-tax" "red" states.

Thus there seems to be more at play than an overly simplistic explanation like "red" vs. "blue" or high-tax vs. low-tax.
Colorado is a "blue" state yet seeing one of the largest population growths.

Hmmm........

The WSJ is a rag owned by News Corp, which was started by Rupert Murdoch, and now largely owned, thus controlled by the largest money-management firms (like BlackRock, State Street, Vanguard, Fidelity, etc.), firms which are creating virtual monopolies in the U.S. via large share holdings of the largest "competing" companies across the largest industries.

The only way they know how to make a profit is by consolidating these "competing" companies, thereby reducing consumer choices, thus profiting by default.

Just like JP Morgan prior.

Yet those profits aren't good enough, thus they are leading the charge for "deregulation" (via propaganda thru their consolidated media holdings) in order to further consolidate wealth into the hands of the few.

Because Feudalism worked in the past....right?

"And since American consumers are genetically predisposed to never learning from their mistakes"

Uhhh, change the phrase "American consumers" simply to "humans" and you have a truthful statement.

There are a multitude of choices between the mere dichotomous choices of total regulation and total deregulation.

We've been there before, yet have failed to learn from our mistakes.

This propagandists push for total deregulation will ultimately prove disastrous

Humans are guided solely by propaganda, fads and trends.

Read Propaganda by Edward Bernays, and Instincts of the Herd in Peace & War by Wilfred Trotter.
 

In reply to by evoila

rosiescenario surf@jm Tue, 05/08/2018 - 13:36 Permalink

On the one hand the folks who make money, create jobs, and pay the taxes are leaving while on the other hand those who take the money through the liberal dole programs are moving there.

No surprise but the Dems are turning California into another one of their shit holes.

There are also many other reasons folks are leaving....the school system, the incredible level of bureaucratic regulation of business, the left wing ding bat governor, Calpers being about $1 trillion short (more taxes needed to cover that), property taxes, gas taxes, sales taxes, income taxes, registration fees, etc.

Also, good luck if you wish to build a home....you can expect to pay around $50k to the local planning department to get a building permit issued.

In reply to by surf@jm

Breathial BlackChicken Tue, 05/08/2018 - 10:17 Permalink

California Residents Flee, Chased Away By Soaring Home Prices And Cost Of Living”

Bullshit..!  They are chased away by bat shit crazy liberals destroying the state and it’s economy.

ALL of the above.  As a California native, 30 years uninterrupted residence there, I could no longer ignore the writing on the wall, moved my family out, in 2015.  Sold my place for a healthy profit, and we never looked back.  Now, the collectivist policies are so bad, I'm effectively exiled from my home state, even if I wanted to go back. 

At this point, I don't care.  The whole God-damned state could fall into the ocean, I don't give a shit.  Collectivist snowflakes have ruined it. 

In reply to by BlackChicken

Katos BlackChicken Tue, 05/08/2018 - 12:38 Permalink

I'm actually leaving for both of the reasons you mentioned! I'm tired of watching bat shot crazy politicians,  turn this beautiful state into a pedophile paradise! Laws recently passed to force children as young a 2nd grade to take classes on LGBT LIFE STYLES?? THESE CLASSES WILL BE MANDATORY.  THEN BROWN WANTS TO OUTLAW THE BIBLE?? TURNING CALIFORNIA INTO SODOM AND GOMMORA! WE ALL KNOW WHAT HAPPENS THEN?? IVE FOUND AN APARTMENT IN ANOTHER STATE, THAT WILL SAVE ME 700 A MONTH OFF WHAT IM PAYING IN CALIFORNIA.  I LOVE BEING CLOSE TO THE OCEAN,  BUT A YEARLY RAISE IN RENT OF AT LEAST 75 DOLLARS A MONTH OVER THE LAST 7 YEARS HAVE MADE THE OCEAN LESS IMPORTANT. ANYWAY, 5/31/2018, IM OUT!

In reply to by BlackChicken

Mr. Universe MillionDollarButter Tue, 05/08/2018 - 00:28 Permalink

I don't know, after 60 years of California we are about done. This wonderful state had it all, now it has way too many people. Most of the fruits and nuts were imports from other states and multi-generational families of natives like ours is rare. I'm tired of of all the crap, hell living on an active volcano with hostile natives is not much different than the SF Bay. No your not going to become any real Hawaiian's best friend anytime soon but the good news is you don't have to be. Plenty of others around with the Aloha spirit. Then again the public schools and their "Kill Haole Day" show that they are perpetually pissed off just because you are alive.

In reply to by MillionDollarButter

Theosebes Goodfellow sheikurbootie Tue, 05/08/2018 - 02:47 Permalink

Just going by the numbers, the future of the west in general and California in particular is not good.

1.) There is not enough water right now, and Lake Powell is going dry.

2.) Taxes are going up, and the democrats running the government just do not care how that impacts anyone.

3.) American citizens are second class to "undocumented foreign nationals".

4.) Same said UFNs litter just like back in ol' Mexico, turning the once beautiful "Golden State" into an open trash heap.

5.) The state is MANDATING solar on all new houses. That should add about $20k to the price of an new shack.

6.) The utilities are going to stick the rate payers for the cost of the wildfires, (PG&E in particular).

7.) The only people with guns are gangs and cops, and neither group will protect you from the other.

8.) A federal judge has ruled that the overcrowding in California prisons is unconstitutional, so the state lockups are dumping the excess into the county lockups. That equates to harder felons locked up longer with minor offenders.

9.) Th central valley still does not have water to grow food because the life of a 3 inch smelt is more important.

10.) You have to be very careful of what you say anywhere in public, less you trigger one of the koolaid drinkers. You do this because it is much easier to keep your mouth shut than to have to put up with the bullshit of a complete stranger pulling a full-blown meltdown, (this has happened to me).

11.) They like to kill perfectly good babies here. Especially the ones who haven't made it out of a womb. Be warned.

12.) Mello-Roos. Google it.

13.) Winter/summer gasoline "blends". Highest gasoline prices in the contiguous 48 states. All gas has ethanol.

I could go on, but you get the idea. Please feel free to add to the list!

39 years. So glad to be gone. Call someplace paradise and kiss it good bye.

In reply to by sheikurbootie

Pool Shark Theosebes Goodfellow Tue, 05/08/2018 - 08:56 Permalink

Actually, Item 8) is far worse than you think...

In the wake of that Court decision, Uncle Jerry killed two birds with one stone: He releaved the prison overcrowding by dumping prisoners on the counties, and he cut the State prison budget. By passing AB-109, the Dems saw to it that very few felony offenses are punishable by incarceration in prison anymore (in fact you could steal every single car in California, one after another, get caught after each one, and you can never do a single day of prison.)

The CDC prisoners who were transferred to county jails have nearly all been released due to jail overcrowding.

Also, Props-36 and 47 have essentially decriminalized most felony drug and property offenses, so drug addicts and thieves who steal to support their habits can no longer be incarcerated as felons (‘Petty Theft with a Prior’ was always chargeable as a felony. Not anymore. As long as a thief steals less than $950 worth of property at a time, he can’t be charged with a felony; no matter how many times he does it.)

The leftist whackos in Sacramento are seeing to it that ‘crime pays’ (as long as it is non-violent). So, you can use drugs and steal all you want (as long as you don’t physically injure or threaten anyone) and you will face no significant consequences.

Criminals (at least the smart ones) have started to figure this out, and hence property crime has been skyrocketing in recent years (and will only get worse).

Finally, California has 12.5% of the Nation’s population; but 36% of the Nation’s Welfare Recipients.

California is both politically and demographically doomed...

In reply to by Theosebes Goodfellow

surf@jm Theosebes Goodfellow Tue, 05/08/2018 - 10:09 Permalink

I lived there during the eighties.....

They closed down the lunatic asylums, and then went on a cop hiring spree......

The result......The lunatics became cops.....We would take bets in los Angeles, on who the cops shot daily......

The categories were:.... which Los Angeles city shooting occurred in, number of bullets cop fired, and alleged weapon....

I won the bet one time with.....  Long Beach, 19 bullets, rubber hose.....

The cops shot some hippy in long beach 19 times, because they claimed he came at them with a rubber hose.....

A buddy of mine won, when a California highway patrol officer, stopped a female motorist, and threw her off an overpass while choking her........

In reply to by Theosebes Goodfellow

Daddy Cool edifice Tue, 05/08/2018 - 05:36 Permalink

They're adopting the mindset too.  Denver legalized public urination and defecation last year to "make it easier for the homeless and Muslim migrants." 

The Denver Public Library has become a homeless hangout during the day.  They stink up the place and shoot up in the bathrooms.  It got so bad the library finally banned them off the 3rd floor.

In reply to by edifice

Quantify Tue, 05/08/2018 - 00:03 Permalink

All immigration should come to a halt. Overpopulation is the worlds number one issue. Until those countries that continue to grow their populations are forced to deal with their own population problems they will continue to breed irresponsibly. Clearly, assertions that the Earth might be able to support a population of 10, or even 15 billion people for an indefinite period of time at a standard of living superior to the present are not only cruelly misleading but almost certainly false. Notwithstanding our current addiction to continued and uninterrupted economic growth, humanity must recognize that there are finite physical, biological, and ecological limits to the Earth's long-term sustainable carrying capacity. And to judge by the growing concerns about maintaining the quality, stability, and/or sustainability of the Earth's atmosphere, water, forests, croplands, fisheries, and so on, there is little if any doubt that many of these limits will soon be reached, if they haven't already been surpassed. Since at some point the damage stemming from the mutually reinforcing effects of excessive human reproduction and over consumption of resources could well become irreversible.

Archive_file BlissPoint Tue, 05/08/2018 - 03:23 Permalink

He’s not a moron. The only reason human population has been able to increase like it has is because of the advent of commercially produced nitrogen fertilizer and pesticides after WWII. It’s called the “Green Revolution.” Why don’t you read up on it? Here: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Revolution

im not going to call you an asshole or anything, I’ll just call you uninformed. 

Since the “Green Revolution” crops and insects have evolved to survive much of the pesticides and farmers have grown mass swaths of one crop (monocropping). The problem with that is that if one aspect of that crops growing condition changes, it can’t survive because there isn’t any diversity in that particular crop. 

Read up on basic agriculture sir. Our food doesn’t magically appear on our store shelves. There’s a lot of shit coming down the pike in terms of food production. 

From the Wikipedia entry:

”Green Revolution techniques also heavily rely on chemical fertilizerspesticides and herbicides and rely on machines, which as of 2014 rely on or are derived from crude oil, making agriculture increasingly reliant on crude oil extraction.[46] Proponents of the Peak Oil theory fear that a future decline in oil and gas production would lead to a decline in food production or even a Malthusian catastrophe.[47]

In reply to by BlissPoint

Crassius Tue, 05/08/2018 - 00:04 Permalink

Prices may be skyrocketing but don’t these Californians want to stay and pay even more for the newly mandated solar panels...  WTF do they have against the environment?