While we now know that Trump will announce a US withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal, the question is all about the nuance: how will the president frame the US exit, and whether Iran will be allowed to continue its oil exports after the US is no longer a participant in the JCPOA.
One preview of what Trump's speech may look like comes from Citi's head of commodity research, Ed Morse, who in a Bloomberg interview this morning said that President Trump will likely give European governments "a chance to step up what they’ve already offered in terms of tightening sanctions" on Iran.
The tighter sanctions would relate to issues left out of the 2015 nuclear accord, such as Iran’s development of ballistic missiles, terrorist financing, Hezbollah, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp.
"The president’s going to say something that he’s going to move in a certain direction, that he’s ready to re-impose sanctions" predicted Morse, who added that Trump will "come out strong, and say the Europeans are stepping up to the table and we’ve got to do more."
Morse also said that it's possible OPEC will meet and decide to increase output to fill gap left by Iran, although with the price of Brent surging to the revised Saudi target of $80, it is unlikely that OPEC will interfere with the recent favorable equilibrium.
Finally, with everyone throwing their 2 cents on what the price impact of today's deal collapse could be, Morse said that the Iranian political risk in oil price is about $5/bbl, however the recently bearish analysts said that any sell-off would be “a lot more” than that.
Watch full interview below.