One quarter after banks enjoyed a record boost to their equity/derivative trading revenue from the February 5 "volocaust", things are looking far more grim for Q2. Consider that one year after on May 31, 2017 JPM made the following warning:
- JPMORGAN 2Q MARKET REVENUE HAS BEEN DOWN ABOUT 15 PERCENT FROM YEAR EARLIER, CFO SAYS
This morning JPM had news that were almost as unpleasant, when investment bank chief Daniel Pinto said that second-quarter markets revenue would be flat compared with a year earlier...
- JPMORGAN MARKETS REV WILL BE `FLAT' Y/Y, PINTO SAYS
... and by implication, also 15% down from 2016.
Furthermore, speaking on Tuesday at an investor conference, Pinto said that the drag of several one-off items is reducing the benefit of "mid-single digit" percentage improvements in core trading business, such as in rates, credit, and equities. In other words, the bank is set for another overall revenue decline, which the collapse in NIM virtually assures that interest income will be another fiasco.
And while markets already had their hands full with negative news out of Italy, US banks extended losses after the JPM warning with most big bank shares extending losses, sliding between down ~3-5 pct, and the S&P Financial sector tumbling to the lowest in almost a month.
And while it may get far worse before it gets better, especially if the political chaos in Italy continues, both Goldman and Citi are already suffering from the worst start to a year since 2011.