Mortgage Refi Activity Plunges To 18 Year Lows (And It's About To Get A Lot Worse)

It appears The Fed's desperate efforts to normalize interest rates (and its balance sheet) before the next recession strikes is reflexively driving a significant part of the economy towards that very end.

As the Mortgage Bankers Association reports, mortgage applications decreased 2.9% from one week earlier.

The Refinance Index decreased 5% from the previous week to its lowest level since December 2000.

The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2% from one week earlier.

The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3% compared with the previous week and was 2 percent higher than the same week one year ago. ...

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($453,100 or less) decreased to 4.77 percent from 4.78 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.50 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

And given the recent surge in mortgage rates, it's about to get a lot worse...

And it appears Homebuilder stocks are starting to pick up those signals - despite, still near cycle high NAHB optimism...