The Dollar, Yields And Equities Are Surging, Here's Why

After tumbling yesterday, US equities are surging this morning ahead of payrolls...


Here's why:

  • New anti-establishment Italian government? Check.
  • New anti-establishment, socialist Spanish government? Check.
  • Trade war between the US and Europe, Mexico, & Canada? Check.
  • Deutsche Bank (most systemically risky bank in the world at one point) downgraded to a B-handle? Check.

So all we need now is a dismal jobs or wage growth print and bad news will be really great news.

But did Trump just spoil the hopes of a bad print?

Indeed, it appears that the unusual tweet suggests there will be an outsized strong payroll number...

... which has in turn sent 10Y yields but especially the dollar surging.

As Bloomberg reminds us, White House officials are typically given access to the monthly employment data the day before the reports are released publicly.

So will Mueller now probe Trump for also leaking the May payrolls beat? Find out shortly.