A new report using property searches and census data from realtor.com reveals which states Californians are moving to when they realize that a $1.4 million McMansion on 1/16th of an acre while staring into their fat neighbor's bedroom window just isn't all it's cracked up to be.
Silicon Valley residents in particular are leaving in droves - more so than any other part of the state. Nearby San Mateo County which is home to Facebook came in Second, while Los Angeles County came in third.
“They’re looking for affordability and not finding it in Santa Clara County,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist for realtor.com.
A tight housing supply combined with nearly a decade of exploding home values have pushed housing prices and rents through the roof. Take, for example, this 848 square foot home on Plymouth Drive in Sunnyvale, CA (which in the 90's was the "poor" part of town vs. nearby Mountain View and Los Altos).
After being listed in March for $1.45 million, it sold within 48 hours for $2 million, or $2,358 per square foot. With Sunnyvale's 1.25% property tax, the new owners are paying $2,083 per month, or $250,000 every 10 years.
The housing crunch has inspired a flurry of state legislation designed to boost new home construction and eventually lower prices, "including a sweeping proposal to add millions of homes by public transit. It died in April, but its author, Sen. Scott Wiener, D-San Francisco, has vowed to try again next year," writes Kathy Murphy in the Mercury News.
As Michael Snyder of the Economic Collapse Blog pointed out in May...
Reasons for the mass exodus include rising crime, the worst traffic in the western world, a growing homelessness epidemic, wildfires, earthquakes and crazy politicians that do some of the stupidest things imaginable. But for most families, the decision to leave California comes down to one basic factor…
It's not just housing prices driving the exodus, of course. Punitive taxes - more than twice as much as some other states, are eating away at disposable income. Nearby Arizona's income tax rate is 4.54% vs. California's 9.3%, while the new tax bill may accelerate the exodus.
As Snyder notes:
"But now the new tax bill has made some major changes, and some experts believe that this will actually accelerate the exodus out of the state of California. The following comes from CNBC…"
In an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal headlined “So Long, California. Sayonara, New York,” Laffer and Moore (who have both advised President Donald Trump) say the new tax bill will cause a net 800,000 people to move out of California and New York over the next three years.
The tax changes limit the deduction of state and local taxes to $10,000, so many high-earning taxpayers in high-tax states will actually face a tax increase under the new tax code.
So where are people going?
The top destination for Bay Area residents is either a cheaper part of the state such as Alameda, Sacramento, San Juaquin or Placer counties, where homes can be found for $500K - $894K less than Santa Clara. Silicon Valley residents heading out of state are setting up camp in Arizona, Nevada, Idaho and Texas.
And as South Bay Silicon Valley residents in particular are flocking to nearby Alameda County - one of the top destinations for in-state moves, Alameda County residents are being pushed further east to lower-cost Contra Costa, San Juaquin, Sacramento and Placer counties.
Meanwhile, the median home price in Sacramento County — $357,000 — has risen each month for the past six years, the Sacramento Bee reported last week, jumping by 12 percent in the past year. -Mercury News
Here are the top 10 California counties that people are leaving, and where they're headed... (realtor.com via the Mercury News.)
1. Santa Clara County
Out of state destinations: Arizona, Nevada, Texas and Idaho
In state destinations: Alameda, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Santa Cruz and Placer counties
2. San Mateo County
Out of state destinations: Arizona, Nevada, Texas and Washington
In state destinations: Alameda, Contra Costa, Santa Clara, Sacramento, and San Francisco counties
3. Los Angeles County
Out of state destinations: Nevada, Arizona, and Idaho
In state destinations: San Bernardino, Riverside, Ventura and Kern counties
4. Napa County
Out of state destinations: Arizona, Idaho, Nevada, Florida and Oregon
In state destinations: Solano, Sonoma, Sacramento, Lake and El Dorado counties
5. Monterey County
Out of state destinations: Arizona, Nevada, and Idaho
In state destinations: San Luis Obispo, Fresno, Santa Cruz, Sacramento and San Diego counties
6. Alameda County
Out of state destinations: Arizona, Nevada, Idaho, and Hawaii.
In state destinations: Contra Costa, San Joaquin, Sacramento, Placer, and El Dorado counties
7. Marin County
Out of state destinations: Nevada, Arizona, Oregon and Idaho.
In state destinations: Sonoma, Contra Costa, Solano and San Francisco counties
8. Orange County
Out of state destinations: Arizona, Nevada and Idaho
In state destinations: Riverside, Los Angeles, San Bernardino, San Diego and San Luis Obispo
9. Santa Barbara County
Out of state destinations: Arizona, Nevada and Idaho.
In state destinations: San Luis Obispo, Ventura, Los Angeles, Riverside and Kern counties
10. San Diego County
Out of state destinations: Arizona and Nevada
In state destinations: Riverside, San Bernardino, Imperial, Orange County and Los Angeles