One week after Gartman was officially stopped out of his 10Y short position, as the yield on the 10Y TSY tumbled far below his 2.92% stop when the latest Italian crisis hit last week (incidentally, for the second time, the first took place just after the April Payrolls report on May 4, but let's pretend that never happened), the world-renowned commodity guru has finally acknowledged he busted on his latest letter to clients writes that "we’ll mince no words here: the bond market go away from us last week and the week before and so with the material weakness of the past four trading sessions we’ve no choice but to mitigate the damage wrought and run for cover!"
Wednesday, May 2nd we sold the ten-year note future. Then the ten-year note future was trading 119 11/32nds. It is 119 17/32nds presently and so, we are now behind by far less than 1% but we were behind by a good deal more than that and with the market moving back to reduce our loss as difficult as it is to do so we wish to take our small loss upon receipt of this commentary… about 0.2%... and get to the sidelines… immediately!
For those who cannot trade futures, the Short Bond ETF… TBT… opened on the NYSE on Wednesday, May 2nd at $38.00 and closed Friday evening at $36.82 or -3.1% against us. We shall cover this also as soon as possible.
And now it's safe to short the 10Y again. As for stocks...
In retrospect, erring quietly bullishly of stocks was reasonably correct, but obviously we should have erred materially, recklessly, fantastically bullishly of stocks. As we write, given the strength abroad in Asia, stock index futures are trading pleasantly higher and do appear to breaking out to the upside with some sense of vigor that may carry through for some while more before resistance of some consequence is met.
Good luck to the bulls.