For the first time since September 2017, WTI Crude has tested the 100-day moving-average and is now down over 10% from its highs 8 days ago after an OPEC committee stressed the need to ensure supplies can meet growing demand, adding to speculation the group will phase out its production cuts.
The 100DMA is holding WTI around $65.28 for now at around two-month lows as Bloomberg reports Saudi Arabia and Russia signaled plans to restore output for the first time since the end of 2016.
Their production cuts have cleared a global inventory surplus and there’s now a growing risk of supply disruptions due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to renew sanctions on Iran and Venezuela’s economic crisis. Crude’s surge last month gave rise to concerns demand may falter, even as rising fuel prices have sparked protests from Brazil to Siberia.
“OPEC and Russia have shown concerns about the impact of the rapid escalation in oil prices on global demand,” Bank of America Corp. analysts said in a note. While governments may intervene to cap fuel prices in emerging markets, “we note the growing risks to consumption arising from higher U.S. interest rates and political turmoil in Europe.”
While Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Khalid Al-Falih said scaling back supply caps put in place since early 2017 is “on the table,” most producers weren’t consulted about the proposal to revive supplies.