There has been a certain urgency to Jeff Gundlach's recent webcasts, and today he will hold his latest public address to DoubleLine investors (and everyone else) just three weeks after his most recent webcast, which in turn was just 2 weeks after the prior one.
The title of today's webcast is the cryptic "push me, pull you" which we assume has to do with the interplay of stocks and bonds, and/or the economy vs inflation, as well as upcoming quantitative tightening inversion by central banks.
Readers can registed by clicking on the image below or going to the following link.
Looking at recent economic data, Gundlach predicts that nominal GDP may hit as high as 5.6% for LTM June 30, suggesting that 10Y yields are accurately priced (when taking into account 10y Bunds).
Recent confidence prints are near record highs, and don't suggest any weakness:
"HY spreads do not have a recessionary look at all" ... but let's see what happens when the QE stops buying corporate bonds.
"The energy sector suggest there is some chance of a recession in 12 months, but not sooner."
... but global growth is clearly slowing.
Here is Gundlach borrowing an idea from Albert Edwards, noting that the rate hike from the "shadow rate" bottom is now 475bps, higher than the last several rate hike cycles. Of course, this analysis ignores the trillions in QE...
Gundlach on the soaring US debt: unprecedented.
The chart Gundlach calls a "suicide mission": rising deficits and rising rates:
Next: one of our favorite charts - Michael Hartnett's bubble chart showing that it is almost time for eccommerce to burst.
Gundlach also commented on the blow out in Italian yields...
... and highlighted that aside from the ECB, nobody else is buying Italian paper.
10Y nominal rates around the globe: