'DISEASE X': New Strain Of Bird Flu Kills 40% Of Those Who Contract, 100s Dead In China

A "new" strain of deadly bird flu dubbed "Disease X" by the World Health Organization (WHO) has killed hundreds of people in China, and is just three mutations away from becoming transmissible between humans, according to experts.

The strain, H7N9, circulates in poultry and has killed 623 people out of 1,625 infected in China - a mortality rate of 38.3%. While first identified in China in 2013, H7N9 has recently emerged as a serious threat seemingly overnight. 

Professor Jonathan Van-Tam, deputy chief medical officer for the UK, told The Telegraph that H7N9 could cause a global outbreak.

“[H7N9] is an example of another virus which has proven its ability to transmit from birds to humans," said Van-Tam, who added "It’s possible that it could be the cause of the next pandemic."

The WHO says N7N9 is "an unusually dangerous virus for humans," and "one of the most lethal influenza viruses that we've seen so far

H7N9 viruses have several features typically associated with human influenza viruses and therefore possess pandemic potential and need to be monitored closely,” said Dr. Yoshihiro Kawaoka of the University of Wisconsin-Madison. 

Researchers led by James Paulson of the Scripps Research Institute in California have been studying the mutations which could potentially occur in H7N9's genome to allow for human-to-human infection.

The team’s findings, published in the journal PLoS Pathogens on Thursday, showed that in laboratory tests, mutations in three amino acids made the virus more able to bind to human cells — suggesting these changes are key to making the virus more dangerous to people. -Japan Times

That said, the mutations would need to occur relatively close to each other to become more virulent, which has a low probability of happening according to Fiona Culley, an expert in respiratory immunology at Imperial College London.

"Some of the individual mutations have been seen naturally … these combinations of mutations have not,” and added: "The chances of all three occurring together is relatively low."

Wenday Barclay, a virologist and flu specialist also at Imperial College says the study's findings reinforce the need to keep the H7N9 bird flu under close surveillance. 

“These studies keep H7N9 virus high on the list of viruses we should be concerned about,” she said. “The more people infected, the higher the chance that the lethal combination of mutations could occur.”

According to the CDC, Human infections with bird flu viruses can happen when enough virus gets into a person’s eyes, nose or mouth, or is inhaled. This can happen when virus is in the air (in droplets or possibly dust) and a person breathes it in, or when a person touches something that has virus on it then touches their mouth, eyes or nose.

The reported signs and symptoms of avian influenza A virus infections in humans have ranged from mild to severe and included  conjunctivitis, influenza-like illness (e.g., fever, cough, sore throat, muscle aches) sometimes accompanied by nausea, abdominal pain, diarrhea, and vomiting, severe respiratory illness (e.g., shortness of breath, difficulty breathing, pneumonia, acute respiratory distress, viral pneumonia, respiratory failure), neurologic changes (altered mental status, seizures), and the involvement of other organ systems -CDC

Rare human infections with some avian viruses have occurred most often after unprotected contact with infected birds or surfaces contaminated with avian influenza viruses. However, some infections have been identified where direct contact was not known to have occurred. Illness in people has ranged from mild to severe.

Don't let this happen to you: 

Comments

Parrotile BigJim Fri, 06/15/2018 - 21:34 Permalink

Unless you take the "Howard Hughes" extreme position, you are always going to have some contact with fecal material. EVERYTHING you touch supports some form of (often quite diverse) microbial and viral population, and viruses comprise the bulk of the Planet's discrete "life-forms" (there are about 100x as many viruses in your body as "human" cells, along with about 10x as many bacteria inside and outside, again, as there are "human" cells").

The Imperial assurances are correct - the "random" possibility of such a modification is low, HOWEVER viruses undergo "host adaptation" during the early phases of colonising a new host ("us" in this case), and with a decent burst number (around the 10,000 virions produced per successful Influenza single cell infection) the possibility of rapid adaptation exists. After all we have seen this before. Influenza replication isn't perfect (so "mistakes" are made - many of which are fatal for the virus, some of which may confer an infective advantage, so (all things being equal) those "better adapted" will propagate preferentially). This adaptation can (and does) happen within a SINGLE host infection cycle.

Mortality rates seem high - not ideal for the virus (since "keeping the host alive and infectious is far better") however 40% is still OK, and providing there's a decent window of infectivity before the patient becomes debilitated, infection can reliably spread. Influenza cases are most infectious one day before symptom development, and on the first day (of developing initially mild symptoms) - this is when virus shedding is highest. So, for a "not quite well-adapted" virus we might see a three-day "high infectivity" window (with "acceptably mild" symptoms, during which the Patient carries on with daily activities, which for most City-dwellers will mean contact with many others - at work, leisure, or in Public Transport).

Might be worth keeping an eye on developments - this could be an "interesting species", and it is interesting to note the "50 year cycle" since the last one - 1918, then 1968 (which nearly killed me - really!), and now 2018. Whilst I'm sure Nature doesn't work like that, it is nevertheless interesting (for those into numerology).

In reply to by BigJim

Parrotile Dancing Disraeli Sat, 06/16/2018 - 04:00 Permalink

"On the bright side, you've got a 6 in 10 chance of beating it!" - Providing you don't contract a secondary infection.

Memorable cases from the past - our last "major" 'Flu  problem in Aus. - elderly diabetic, lots of "usual" extra associated problems (mainly renal / vascular / peripheral bits chopped off)) - treated for influenza with Tamiflu - did OK, developed systemic Candidiasis (post oral thrush!), and died, despite significant efforts to keep her going.

Although the 'Flu puts the immune system on "high alert", this doesn't mean that other things can't colonise you whilst you are debilitated - and such things DO happen.

Best to avoid all Hospitals unless you REALLY need Hospital care (i.e. ICU or HDU level respiratory support). They will become a VERY high risk area for infection dissemination.

In reply to by Dancing Disraeli

Miffed Microbi… Parrotile Sat, 06/16/2018 - 00:35 Permalink

Sweetheart, don't tell them such things. Most wish that sanitary wipe for their grocery cart handle will save them from a hemorrhagic viral plague. I spend my days in a BSL 3 lab and know I'm inherently doomed if anything remotely real emerges. Ive played with tularemia, brucella,   Cladophialophora bantiana, multiple strains of Influenza. Sometimes I think I really should be dead. In fact I will say I savor life all the more knowing how fleeting it truly is. 

 

Miffed 

In reply to by Parrotile

Implied Violins Miffed Microbi… Sat, 06/16/2018 - 01:50 Permalink

Hey, you haven't lived until you've played with Yersinia pestis or Bacillus anthracis.  Or is that 'died'?

I just finished reading two incredible books by Mike Baillie, who is a dendrochronologist (studier of tree growth rings) and also a student of ice core rings and written history from at least six different continents over the last 5,000 years.  

He wrote a book about the 1340's "Black Plague" in fact, and argued (quite convincingly, in my opinion) that COMETS were the main cause of death during those times -  and previously - especially 540 A.D.; as whatever happened totally shut down tree growth during those times, which could not have happened to trees if only the plague were involved.

Quite interesting books, as Baillie also submits that *all* of the Gods of ancient history (e.g. Zeus, Odin, Thor, etc.) were actually descriptions of comets that were disintegrating and also hitting the Earth.

ANYWAY: the take-home message here is that we are all going to be tested very soon RE:plagues/locusts/viruses etc. (either real, or manufactured by our very own governments) and we all need to be alert and diligent and NOT listen to the MSM narratives about getting vaccines etc. if we want to survive this crap.  And if all of us simply take the time to eat properly; stay away from vaccines; exercise; avoid GMO's; take Vitamin C etc. we will all come through these times in good shape.

In reply to by Miffed Microbi…

Parrotile Miffed Microbi… Sat, 06/16/2018 - 03:40 Permalink

Hi Miffed!

Yes, well, working with anything at BSL3 (or even 2) these days is a bit like riding a motorbike in Aussie rush hour traffic - "high risk of issues".

Our trolley wipes (Woolworths) contain Cetrimide - which does have  an effect on the lipid-encapsulated viruses, however I'd prefer not to rely on that entirely. Having worked in BSL4 (UK MOD, Porton Down) I take all viral problems rather seriously, and OK I do over-react a bit occasionally (since unlike most people, I've seen what damage these things do to smaller mammals, and their final few moments are chilling). Definitely NOT a "nice" way to go.

Hopefully this'll just be another "near miss", and we'll have no major problem. I'm now getting into the "older" end of the high risk age spectrum, and it would be pretty galling for the 'Flu (that nearly killed me in '68), to succeed in knocking me off the perch 50 years later! :-D

In reply to by Miffed Microbi…

Theosebes Goodfellow Parrotile Sat, 06/16/2018 - 06:52 Permalink

Okay, that's enough out of you and Miffed. You're scaring the chillens', (that'd be me). Having been trained in Level 4 containment, I'm good with never running into any of the shit you two have played with. No really, seriously.

Every time I hear about another Ebola outbreak I get nervous, though my money is on airborne TB, but it's running a distant third to H7N9. That shit's scary. Anything with 40 percent + kill rates running around on the loose gets my attention. Call me chicken.

In reply to by Parrotile

Trogdor Expendable Container Fri, 06/15/2018 - 23:23 Permalink

Eisenhower was a very vocal Zionist twat who hated his "German-sounding" name.  After WWII, he was warned by the Red Cross that he was starving the German POW's to death (less than 1100 calories per day - and many of them without any shelter) - and he didn't care - he (and other Allied leaders) did it on purpose.

The more true history you learn about WWII, the more you realize that the people who were put on "trial" at Nuremberg were FAR from the true monsters of WWII.

In reply to by Expendable Container

Hammer of Light WillyGroper Fri, 06/15/2018 - 21:41 Permalink

This looks like the weaponized grade virulent. My understanding is that this rev of this bird flu was maximized and planned well in advance of release. A testing op that could literally go live. If this virulent gets on a plane at a few airports.... best hope to God Almighty you have a bolt hole already to go in the middle of freakin nowhere.

Something like this that's clearly been weaponized and maximized, this is a horseman of death level virulent. If this is out in the clear now... what is the time it takes to contract it to the time you start showing symptoms.

There is NO treatment for something like this. It's designed to max kill. If this story is legit, this is real bad mammon. This on a plane in a few dozen airports and we lose a third of humanity in a couple of months and this lingers on for a decade or more. I've seen some bad ones in my time, but this is catastrophically lethal.

In reply to by WillyGroper

Trogdor Hammer of Light Fri, 06/15/2018 - 23:30 Permalink

I would wager that this is one of many weaponized diseases.  Sanofi Pasteur actually resurrected - then weaponized the Spanish Flu in the early 2000's (Spanish Flu killed over 100 million during WWI).  Their "excuse" for resurrecting a disease that hadn't been seen in almost 100 years?  "Well, what if there's an outbreak!?  We need to develop a vaccine!"

A weaponized variant of the Black Plague would be a *truly* nightmarish cootie - death occurs within 24-48 hours of onset of symptoms.  Reminds me of "Captain Trips" - the disease that wiped out most of humanity in the book "The Stand" ....

In reply to by Hammer of Light

heretical cornflakesdisease Sat, 06/16/2018 - 02:41 Permalink

The world is massively overpopulated, it's obvious. There has been an exponential rise in population over the last several centuries. Currently species are going extinct at a rate not seen for many millions of years.

Yes, more people could be accomodated on this earth if everyone were allocated two square metres of concrete and a feeding tube. Is that the utopia you have in mind?

In reply to by cornflakesdisease

Blankenstein cornflakesdisease Sat, 06/16/2018 - 15:46 Permalink

90 million are out of the work force and 40% are on some sort of assistance in the US and you think we can support more people?    Where are theses new jobs going to come from? Are you going to pay more taxes to support those without jobs?  

Also, just what we need more idiots voting for welfare, illegal immigrants and tranny restrooms.

Are we going to add some of those billions you think we can handle to the slums of India?  500 million people in India shit in fields and on roads because they don't have access to toilets.

  Are you going to build and pay for all the toilets for the current population and the extra billions that will be added to their population that you believe civilization can support?  

Or it's okay for all the other people to live a shitty existence as long as you're in your comfy middle class lifestyle?

 

 

  

 

In reply to by cornflakesdisease

IridiumRebel Deep Snorkeler Fri, 06/15/2018 - 21:51 Permalink

A disease will come and kill many at some point....but overpopulation as a problem is BS. Stick to shitty prose.

The World Is Not Overpopulated

By Alex B. Berezow
July 20, 2011

An opinion piece in the Los Angeles Times declared the world to be overpopulated and even compared humanity to a cancerous growth. This reasoning is not only disturbing, but is almost certainly incorrect, as well.

The world, indeed, has a lot of people. By the end of 2011, there will be nearly 7 billion people living on the planet. But population growth rates will not sustain at those levels. An analysis by The Economist describes how each subsequent billion will take longer and longer to achieve, until population growth eventually plateaus at around 9 billion people by 2050.

2003 assessment by the United Nations concurs. The UN projects, under its medium-growth scenario, that the human population will remain relatively stable at 9 billion until the year 2300.

The reason is that birth rates are naturally falling around the world. The current growth in world population exceeds the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman, but there are good reasons to believe that growth will slow down in the future. As countries become more technologically and economically advanced, people naturally choose to have fewer children. Also, there is a link between increasing female education and a declining birth rate.

 

In reply to by Deep Snorkeler