Update II: The ECB's Mario Draghi said that nominal wages are rising and that "we're clearly seeing an upward trend in underlying inflation". We wonder - is this what he means by an "upward trend" that's visible to all?
DRAGHI: WE CLEARLY SEE AN UPWARD TREND IN UNDERLYING INFLATION— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 20, 2018
"upward trend" is the new "flat" pic.twitter.com/ll27DNxpjs
He later added that the ECB sees "nothing that resembles recession". And certainly not in the EU economic data, we imagine.
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Update: Powell has maintained his hawkish tone from last week's press conference with his comments in Sintra on the labor market and monetary policy. He expressed confidence in the US economy and said "the case for continued gradual rate hikes is strong."
According to CitiFX's market commentary, its traders highlighted one dovish remark when Powell was speaking about the uncertainty surrounding the NAIRU: "Natural rate estimates have always been uncertain, and may be even more so now as inflation has become less responsive to the unemployment rate...as I mentioned, a tight labor market could draw more people into the labor force."
A number of Fed officials have worried about asset prices and raised the question of whether elevated asset prices are a reason to raise rates. Powell weighs in that asset prices are high by historical standards, but "I do not see broad signs of excessive borrowing or leverage. In addition, banks have far greater levels of capital and liquidity than before the crisis.'' So while this is an issue to monitor, it is not a front-burner problem.
Regarding asset prices, which are high by historical standards, Powell said "I do not see broad signs of excessive borrowing or leverage. In addition, banks have far greater levels of capital and liquidity than before the crisis.''
Here are the headlines:
- POWELL SAYS CASE FOR CONTINUED GRADUAL RATE HIKES IS `STRONG'
- POWELL: JOB MARKET TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER, SUPPORT WAGE GROWTH
- FED'S POWELL REMARKS IN TEXT OF SPEECH AT ECB FORUM IN PORTUGAL
- POWELL: INFLATION HAS MOVED UP CLOSE TO FED'S 2% GOAL
- POWELL: U.S. ECONOMY PERFORMING VERY WELL
- POWELL SAYS GRADUAL RATE-HIKE CASE `BROADLY SUPPORTED' ON FOMC
- POWELL: YET TO SEE INFLATION STAY NEAR GOAL ON SUSTAINED BASIS
- POWELL: U.S. FISCAL POLICY TO ADD TO DEMAND OVER NEXT FEW YEARS
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European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will appear on a policy panel Wednesday that's set to begin at 15:30 CET (that's 10:30 am ET). They will be joined by Philip Lowe, the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. The panel is the last big event of the 2018 ECB annual forum on central banking, which was held in Sintra, Portugal and featured the theme "price and wage-setting in advanced economies."
Of course, there is likely to be disagreement among the 4 (or 3 big guys) as Kuroda remains pedal to the metal on his easing policies (despite the stealth tapering), Draghi has started to adjust to a tightening regime, and Powell is in full normalization mode.
All of which is ironic given that all three face notable demises in their recent economic data...
Watch the panel live below: