Don't Tell Trump, But The Atlanta & St.Louis Feds Just Slashed Q2 GDP

Just two days after Donald Trump Jr slammed "the experts" and crowed of expectations for a 4.5% Q2 GDP print, The Atlanta Fed took an ax to its forecast this morning following disappointing spending data...

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 3.8 percent on June 29, down from 4.5 percent on June 27. The nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth declined from 3.7 percent to 2.7 percent after this morning's personal income and outlays report from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Source: FRB Atlanta

Of course, as we noted previously, this should come as no surprise to anyone who has tracked GDPNOW over the last few years...

GDPNOW is notoriously over-optimistic and ubiquitously downgraded as the quarter goes on...

And Q1 was a doozy...(remember, Q1 GDP forecast began at 5.376%!! and ended at 2...)

Nobody tell the Trumps though...ssshhh.

And definitely don't show them the St.Louis Fed GDP Nowcast - it just collapsed from 3.44$ to 1.29%!!


james diamond squid wadalt Fri, 06/29/2018 - 12:07 Permalink

massive tax cuts will goose the GDP.  instant gratification.  trump should do another bigger round of tax cuts each year.  this year he could cut personal taxes to 15% maximum AND double social service spending.   just think how popular he would be.

he could toss several trillion a year onto the deficit.  who gives a shit anymore about the deficit?



In reply to by wadalt

pods wcole225 Fri, 06/29/2018 - 11:55 Permalink

If he printed in excess with what was going poof then yes, he would have.  As much as he printed, it was barely enough to cover what imploded.  If the aggregate debt curve would have rolled over, we would not be having this conversation online.

Maybe huddled around a 55 gallon barrel trying to keep warm, but not from our comfy confines.

The moneychangers have gotten us into a spot where when this one blows, it will be like no other in modern history.

Makes me wonder if the people of the Indus Valley had set up a Central Bank and fractional reserve currency.


In reply to by wcole225

HillaryOdor tmosley Fri, 06/29/2018 - 11:05 Permalink

People who are really smart don't go around bragging about their IQ.  Enjoy your fantasy world.

Being smart doesn't make you correct anyway.  If you spend your time relaying obviously false talking points on the internet it doesn't seem very smart to me.  But of course a smart person would actually know that.  I wouldn't have to explain it.

In reply to by tmosley

Kayman HillaryOdor Fri, 06/29/2018 - 12:30 Permalink

Long cocking stacks of quarters off a beer table notwithstanding, savvy is something formal, academic aggrandizing IQ cannot measure.

Look to the make up of GDP. "Government" and the government portion of "Services" is NOT GDP growth. It is taking real money from the private sector to be squandered by government parasites.

In reply to by HillaryOdor

HillaryOdor Kayman Fri, 06/29/2018 - 12:37 Permalink

Yes gdp is next to worthless.  I agree.  But it's what people use and quote.  But it's not quite as worthless as echoing false talking points supporting your "team" in your mindless obsequience to authority, especially when your team's leader is such a piece of crap, only marginally better than the other guys.

In reply to by Kayman

HillaryOdor Bill of Rights Fri, 06/29/2018 - 11:24 Permalink

Why don't you try clearly stating what I am wrong about.  This is what I did.  The claim about not achieving 3% gdp is about annual gdp, not quarterly (true) and Obama had several quarters reported at over 3% gdp (also true), claims which you refuse to even attempt to refute because you know you can't.  And his response to my refutation of his talking points?  The ever-so-biting "Why are you crying?"  Quality stuff there.  That really sounds like someone I should listen to and take seriously.  It didn't become a claim about quarterly gdp until the Trump cult of morons made it into one.  So instead of stating what I am wrong about you and your butt buddy both resort to puerile ad hominems and feminine emotional outbursts... for some reason.  I don't know if it's an attempt to bully me into joining the Trump cult or what, but it's just pathetic.  

In reply to by Bill of Rights

Kayman HillaryOdor Fri, 06/29/2018 - 12:41 Permalink

I like your honesty. Calling yourself Hillary Odor is a riot.

1. Using Quarterly numbers, notorious for bouncing all over the place, and extrapolating them to annual numbers, is an academic exercise.

2. Obumbler's quarterly GDP numbers over 3% were always preceded by or followed by near-zero growth.

3. You want short term GDP growth? Hire a bunch of government employees, more tax-eating parasites, and GDP will grow like crazy until the people that finance the treasury choke. 

4. You want long term, sustainable growth? Bring the jobs home. Put a bounty on Globalists.

In reply to by HillaryOdor

HillaryOdor Kayman Fri, 06/29/2018 - 14:18 Permalink

But you can't "bring the jobs home" with new policies, tariffs, or taxes.  Government force does not create productive jobs.  The state only destroys the opportunities for others to be productive.  Any mirage of government induced productivity is simply because it has reappropriated what would have happened privately and more efficiently without the state monopolizing things, and it has done so at a cost to society, which is absolutely massive.  So the market alternative is always better and the state always makes things worse.  

If you want more jobs (and the point of an economy is not to have jobs, but to have leisure, but if you want more jobs to attain that in the future) then you have to reduce government, not expand it.  The federal government is and always has been the number one threat to our economy.  It does more damage than any other group could ever dream of.  Until Trump and his cult members start accepting reality then I will continue to call them the clowns that they are.  And until people are calling out the fake money floating exchange rate fiat fraud regime, then there's no hope for fixing anything else either.  You have to start at the foundation.

In reply to by Kayman