Global Stocks Lost Over $10 Trillion In H1, Just Wait For The Second Half

The Second Half can't be any worse that the first, right?

 

H1 2018 was ugly for most...

WORST

  • Bitcoin Worst Start To A Year Ever

  • German Banks At Lowest Since 1988

  • Onshore Yuan Worst Quarter Since 1994

  • Argentine Peso Worst Start To A Year Since 2002

  • US Financial Conditions Tightened The Most To Start A Year Since 2002

  • Global Systemically Important Banks Worst Start To A Year Since 2008

  • Global Stocks Worst Start To A Year Since 2010

  • China Stocks Worst Start To A Year Since 2010

  • German Stocks Worst Start (In USD Terms) Since 2010

  • Global Economic Data Disappointments Worst Since 2012

  • Emerging Markets, Gold, Silver Worst Start To A Year Since 2013

  • High Yield Bonds Worst Start To A Year Since 2013

  • Offshore Yuan Worst Month Since Aug 2015

  • Global Bonds Worst Start To A Year Since 2015

  • Treasury Yield Curve Down Record 16 Of Last 18 Quarters

BEST

  • US Tech Stocks Best Start To A Year Relative To Financials Since 2009

  • Dollar Index Best Quarter Since Q4 2016

  • WTI Crude Best Month Since April 2016

Bloodbath

As the 'global synchronous recovery' narrative collapsed with Global Macro Surprise Index collapsing to six year lows at the fastest pace since 2012 (which led The Fed from Operation Twist to QE3...)

And as the economy slowed, US financial conditions tightened dramatically...

*  *  *

STOCKS

World Stocks are red to end H1 2018 - they just suffered their worst first-half of a year since 2010...

 

World Stocks have lost almost $10 trillion since their peak in January...

 

China's Shanghai Composite suffered its worst start to a year since 2010...

 

Europe was mixed in H1 with DAX the biggest loser as trade wars hit the big export economy (and Italy suffering on political crisis)...

 

With German banks back to 30-year lows...

 

In US equity-land, the bounce in the S&P in the last 24 hours (off unchanged for the year) has saved the major US equity market index from its worst start to a year since 2010.

US equity market volatility has been very different in 2018 so far...

Trannies had an ugly month but the rebound of the last 24 hours rescued the rest of the majors into the green for the month... However, The dow (blue below) struggled all afternoon and ended June with swoon...

 

Trannies were worst on the week but all major US equity indices closed red... The Dow managed to make it back to unch briefly midweek before the selling resumed...

 

24,425.84 was the magic number for The Dow to end June green (and 24,330 is the 200DMA) but it failed miserably and closed below the 200DMA for the 4th day in a row

 

Bank stocks were unable to hold their post-CCAR gains...(selling off after Europe closed)

 

Tech outperformed financials by the most to start the year since 2009...

 

Global banks were a bloodbath in H1...

 

*  *  *

BONDS

Global Bonds suffered their worst quarter since Q4 2016 (and worst start to a year since 2015)...back into an interesting zone of support/resistance

 

US treasury yields are all higher on the year (though the massive flattening between 2Y and 30Y is very evident)...

 

30Y Yield are actually lower in Q2...

And In June, 10Y and 30Y yields are lower...collapsing at the long-end since The Fed hiked rates...

 

One glance at the above and it is clear that the yield curve is collapsing...

 

In fact Q2 makes the 6th straight quarterly flattening in a row (and 16th quarter in the last 18 that the 2s30s curve has flattened)

 

High yield bonds suffered their worst start to a year since 2013, dramatically underperforming stocks...

But it was investment grade credit that really collapsed...

 

CURRENCIES

The Dollar Index soared in Q2 - up 5%, its best quarter since Q4 2016 (and breaking a 5 quarter losing streak)...

 

And the biggest driver of the dollar's spike - a collapsing Yuan... (June was the worst month for offshore Yuan since the Aug 2015 devaluation and Q2 was the worst quarter for the onshore Yuan since 1994)

 

Emerging Markets were a bloodbath...

 

With the Argentine Peso (apart from the black market bolivar) the worst in the world...

Cryptos were a bloodbath In Q2 (and in June)...Ripple is 2018's biggest loser for now - down 79% YTD...

 

An odd week though this week with Bitcoin notably outperforming the rest of the crypto space (maybe finding support around the $6000 level)...

 

Bitcoin worst month since March (down 4 of 6 this year) and down for 2nd quarter in a row

 

This is Bitcoin's worst start to a year ever...

And HODLers are hoping this is not an echo of Nasdaq 2000...

 

COMMODITIES

June was the best month for WTI Crude since April 2016 (up 8 of the last 10 months)...

And is up 4 quarters in a row to the highest since Nov 2014

The last two weeks have seen WTI explode higher - the best two weeks since August 2016 - as Copper and PMs have drifted lower...

 

This is the worst start to a year for gold and silver since 2013 (notice how every time silver gets its head above water in 2018, someone hits it).

 

*  *  *

And finally, the SMART money has reaccelerated its exit of this market in the last month...

And as the SMART money exits, Millennial men are storming in...

 

Comments

TheWholeYearInn wadalt Fri, 06/29/2018 - 17:59 Permalink

H1 2018 was ugly for most...

WORST

  • Bitcoin Worst Start To A Year Ever

~~~

 

Crypto Space MARKET CAP went from about $700B to about $250B...

 

A half a billion off what this article shocks as as a $10 T MARKET CAP loss?

 

What's a TRILLION? (1,000 billion)? & BTC is 42% of the entire crypto space...

 

So yeah people ~ it was ALL CRYPTO losses (which are first on this list)~ lol... Basically it's like saying that the New York Yankees have zero chance of winning the World Series because Aroldis Chapman blew a save in the ninth inning by giving up a sacrifice fly in April.

In reply to by wadalt

Quantify small axe Fri, 06/29/2018 - 16:45 Permalink

Everybody with a brain knows the stock market is over inflated. It was caused, at least in part by printing trillions of dollars, that now has no where to go except the market because interest rates were so low. Nobody wants to invest in the 3rd world "emerging markets" because it is full of corrupt low life's who push Socialism because of the corruption and the stupidity of the masses who only want to procreate and have kids despite the obvious fact that bigger families cost more resources and money. And they are stupid and can't compete, so just want handouts from the state to survive. Large Population's lead to massive poverty. India, 350 million living in poverty, China 350 million living in poverty. Those who are subsisting on less than $1.25 a day are concentrated in five areas — India, China, Nigeria, Bangladesh and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Until the world's population is reduced the world issues will keep getting larger.

In reply to by small axe

Superlat Quantify Fri, 06/29/2018 - 18:11 Permalink

You're right about overpopulation and related religious ignorance, which the USA supports BTW, because of Republican anti-birth control policies thanks to US christian idiots. Ironic that at the start you talk about the stock market being inflated, and corrupt to its core, but its always socialism that's the problem, not unregulated robber baron capitalism. The corruption in the third world has as much to do with the lack of emphasis on education in catholic nations than anything else. Even though Islam is a backward cult bent on invasive expansion, they at least believe in technical education for some.

In reply to by Quantify

FBaggins Superlat Fri, 06/29/2018 - 21:47 Permalink

Sure go ahead and blame catholics and all religious people for "overpopulation" in India and China. Complete nonsense. Thanks to the Kissinger-Nixon population-reduction policies imposed on China in 1972 as a condition to trade with our superior and illustrious Western nations, China's one-child policy has devastated China's demographics and now they not only have insufficient numbers to sustain their aging population but a generation of spoilt materialist brats just like in North America. Chinese leaders back in the 1970's thought that when the nation needed more children they could just relax their one-child policy, but not so. When you can feel important with a good job or a profession, and have a blast with all the money you make then why be tied down with children? Material affluence is definitely the most lethal form of birth control. 

Poor Hispanics in Latin American nations have more kids not because they are catholics but because one more mouth to feed does not make that much of a difference and is not the end of the world to them like it is to our self-centred, materialistic, anti-child, anti-family, free-sex, "liberated" people of North America, who have FAILED to sustain their own population, and whose decadent culture will not show up for the future. Hispanics in the USA have a fertility rate of 2.15 children for women, while whites have 1.75 children per woman. Even 2.15 is not enough to sustain a population. If not for immigration Europe would simply die off. Seems that is want all the population-reduction elites like Bill Gates, Warren Buffet, the Royals, George Soros, the Rockefeller's and the Rothschild's want - the end of whitie. 

In the distant past as I recall, necessity was the mother of invention, and it overcame most difficulties. People had kids in the midst of great economic uncertainty and challenges. They did not wait until they had two or three degrees, the perfect job, a beautiful house, and money in the bank before they dipped their toes into the great sea of life and had children. Also, parents were not expected to spend $100,000 on a wedding for their only child, their darling and entitled daughter. Rather there was more concern about the long-run and whether or not she would have a successful marriage to the man she was going around with.  As for the men, when your wife got pregnant, if you did not already have a job, you bloody well got one even if you had to dig ditches or clean toilets, and from there you continued to build your marriage and your family.  

 

In reply to by Superlat

shizzledizzle Fri, 06/29/2018 - 16:04 Permalink

Uh oh, failed to close over the 200 day moving average and gave up 2/3 of the days gains in the last hour going into a QT weekend. Shouldn't have busted their nut out the gate this morning. PPT is probably wishing Kudlow would shut the fuck up today.

D.r. Funk Fri, 06/29/2018 - 16:05 Permalink

Engineered churn

Wednesday - Controlled open-valve drop
[even though it is final countdown]
Thursday - 12 to close blatant uniform increase programming
Friday - Overnight priming, intraday hold programming, eod rollback

See my finger. Inverses forever remain.
 

venturen Fri, 06/29/2018 - 16:05 Permalink

you ain't seen nothing yet.....a world economy built on printed and borrowed money....where banking failure....means being showered in trillions of dollars, yuan, yen, Euros.....is a SHAM!

 

The Invisible Hand is going to deliver a knock out for the outright fraud of the central bankers!

Dewey Cheatum … venturen Fri, 06/29/2018 - 20:53 Permalink

And unfortunately the slimy snake known as Keynesian Central bankers will morph into their, ever evolving next iteration to come out the backside of the coming reset..with more control than ever.

They have run paper currencies as far as they will go.

Next up the Dystopian world of digital currencies.

Once everything is pushed in that direction CB's will be there waiting to dole out their digital Satanic misery..same as it ever was, just something new and shiny.  

In reply to by venturen

Alexander De Large Fri, 06/29/2018 - 16:11 Permalink

Fuck this smarmy Tyler.

This fucker thinks he is witty, yet every wrap up is negative no matter what.

And with a SHITLOAD of blurry Debbie Does Dallas level resolution charts.  You cannot even make out the axes, rendering the fucking article stupid and gay.

shortonoil DEMIZEN Fri, 06/29/2018 - 19:49 Permalink

The periphery goes first, because it was planned that way. High interest rates and $70 oil are sucking them dry. But on the bright side they have about $80 trillion of capital to be liberated. It could take a couple of years of extraction before the really negative impact gets to the high rent district. When they can't make cheap junk for us any longer, we have sucked to much.

In reply to by DEMIZEN

DEMIZEN shortonoil Sat, 06/30/2018 - 17:27 Permalink

set your coup alert on elevated when the shit hits the peripheral high rent district, lol.

I am with you on trend and the periphery-oil link but wonder how long will the oil producers be willing to play along and how much leverage has the US and MIIC left to force them into submission if econ activity picks up again.

still, short. & hedged w euro

 

In reply to by shortonoil

adr Fri, 06/29/2018 - 16:14 Permalink

Fuck these assholes running oil up. A fake production cut doubled the price and a production increase drives it up 20% more.

Gasoline went full retard to pump prices that match $110 a barrel and somehow premium gas costs $1 more than regular.

Health insurance keeps going up and you almost can't use it because of deductibles.

Unless your company is getting free cash from the Fed you are probably one bad order away from liquidation.

Is there really any good news unless your name ends with stein or feld?