Global Stocks Lost Over $10 Trillion In H1, Just Wait For The Second Half

The Second Half can't be any worse that the first, right?

 

H1 2018 was ugly for most...

WORST

  • Bitcoin Worst Start To A Year Ever

  • German Banks At Lowest Since 1988

  • Onshore Yuan Worst Quarter Since 1994

  • Argentine Peso Worst Start To A Year Since 2002

  • US Financial Conditions Tightened The Most To Start A Year Since 2002

  • Global Systemically Important Banks Worst Start To A Year Since 2008

  • Global Stocks Worst Start To A Year Since 2010

  • China Stocks Worst Start To A Year Since 2010

  • German Stocks Worst Start (In USD Terms) Since 2010

  • Global Economic Data Disappointments Worst Since 2012

  • Emerging Markets, Gold, Silver Worst Start To A Year Since 2013

  • High Yield Bonds Worst Start To A Year Since 2013

  • Offshore Yuan Worst Month Since Aug 2015

  • Global Bonds Worst Start To A Year Since 2015

  • Treasury Yield Curve Down Record 16 Of Last 18 Quarters

BEST

  • US Tech Stocks Best Start To A Year Relative To Financials Since 2009

  • Dollar Index Best Quarter Since Q4 2016

  • WTI Crude Best Month Since April 2016

Bloodbath

As the 'global synchronous recovery' narrative collapsed with Global Macro Surprise Index collapsing to six year lows at the fastest pace since 2012 (which led The Fed from Operation Twist to QE3...)

And as the economy slowed, US financial conditions tightened dramatically...

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STOCKS

World Stocks are red to end H1 2018 - they just suffered their worst first-half of a year since 2010...

 

World Stocks have lost almost $10 trillion since their peak in January...

 

China's Shanghai Composite suffered its worst start to a year since 2010...

 

Europe was mixed in H1 with DAX the biggest loser as trade wars hit the big export economy (and Italy suffering on political crisis)...

 

With German banks back to 30-year lows...

 

In US equity-land, the bounce in the S&P in the last 24 hours (off unchanged for the year) has saved the major US equity market index from its worst start to a year since 2010.

US equity market volatility has been very different in 2018 so far...

Trannies had an ugly month but the rebound of the last 24 hours rescued the rest of the majors into the green for the month... However, The dow (blue below) struggled all afternoon and ended June with swoon...

 

Trannies were worst on the week but all major US equity indices closed red... The Dow managed to make it back to unch briefly midweek before the selling resumed...

 

24,425.84 was the magic number for The Dow to end June green (and 24,330 is the 200DMA) but it failed miserably and closed below the 200DMA for the 4th day in a row

 

Bank stocks were unable to hold their post-CCAR gains...(selling off after Europe closed)

 

Tech outperformed financials by the most to start the year since 2009...

 

Global banks were a bloodbath in H1...

 

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BONDS

Global Bonds suffered their worst quarter since Q4 2016 (and worst start to a year since 2015)...back into an interesting zone of support/resistance

 

US treasury yields are all higher on the year (though the massive flattening between 2Y and 30Y is very evident)...

 

30Y Yield are actually lower in Q2...

And In June, 10Y and 30Y yields are lower...collapsing at the long-end since The Fed hiked rates...

 

One glance at the above and it is clear that the yield curve is collapsing...

 

In fact Q2 makes the 6th straight quarterly flattening in a row (and 16th quarter in the last 18 that the 2s30s curve has flattened)

 

High yield bonds suffered their worst start to a year since 2013, dramatically underperforming stocks...

But it was investment grade credit that really collapsed...

 

CURRENCIES

The Dollar Index soared in Q2 - up 5%, its best quarter since Q4 2016 (and breaking a 5 quarter losing streak)...

 

And the biggest driver of the dollar's spike - a collapsing Yuan... (June was the worst month for offshore Yuan since the Aug 2015 devaluation and Q2 was the worst quarter for the onshore Yuan since 1994)

 

Emerging Markets were a bloodbath...

 

With the Argentine Peso (apart from the black market bolivar) the worst in the world...

Cryptos were a bloodbath In Q2 (and in June)...Ripple is 2018's biggest loser for now - down 79% YTD...

 

An odd week though this week with Bitcoin notably outperforming the rest of the crypto space (maybe finding support around the $6000 level)...

 

Bitcoin worst month since March (down 4 of 6 this year) and down for 2nd quarter in a row

 

This is Bitcoin's worst start to a year ever...

And HODLers are hoping this is not an echo of Nasdaq 2000...

 

COMMODITIES

June was the best month for WTI Crude since April 2016 (up 8 of the last 10 months)...

And is up 4 quarters in a row to the highest since Nov 2014

The last two weeks have seen WTI explode higher - the best two weeks since August 2016 - as Copper and PMs have drifted lower...

 

This is the worst start to a year for gold and silver since 2013 (notice how every time silver gets its head above water in 2018, someone hits it).

 

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And finally, the SMART money has reaccelerated its exit of this market in the last month...

And as the SMART money exits, Millennial men are storming in...