Another Pre-Summit Dividend - No Sanctions On Nordstream 2

Authored by Tom Luongo,

I hate to say “I told you so,” but, “I told you so.”  There will be no sanctions on the Nordstream 2 pipeline.  The reason is because sanctions won’t stop the project at this point.

Sputnik is reporting that the U.S. has told the German Economic Ministry there will be no sanctions on Russian pipeline projects.

If true then this is an indication that we just about reached the peak of Trump’s full-court press on the economic health of the planet through financial control.   I’ve been steadfast in my position that sanctions are not only an act of war but also, ultimately, have limits.

And once those limits are reached all that is left is the face-saving.  And since the first rule of being a politician is never back down no major policy can be reversed without a means to save face.

Look at the situation Angela Merkel is facing in Germany. 

She can’t cave on Nordstream 2 because she will look like a weak U.S. quisling (which she is). 

She can’t reverse sanctions on Russia over Crimea because there has been no movement towards implementing the Minsk II accord.   

And she can’t back down over her immigration policy because it would betray the people who put her in power — the Soros Set.

Trump has used this to pressure her ruthlessly on trade issues and NATO funding.

As for Trump, he’s not said much directly about Nordstream 2.  Members of his administration have, especially State Department Spokesperson Heather Nauert.   They are the ones who would have to eat crow over Nordstream 2, not Trump.

Trump has made it clear he doesn’t like the project but I think that’s more about his desire to bring Germany low rather than stifle Russia.  The worry is that Germany, through Nordstream 2 and no more supply coming from Ukraine, would then control eastern European politics by having control of their gas supplies.

This, I believe, is now the main focus for Poland in their fight to retain some semblance of sovereignty from the EU.  This is why Poland continues to overpay for Qatari and U.S. LNG as well as invest in a new pipeline from Norway.

But, that said, Trump knows that Europe’s future gas market is big enough to ensure, if indirectly, a market for U.S. LNG.  So, Russia’s dominance in Europe is not something he can compete with in the long run.

Implications

This statement by Germany has a number of potential implications. It may be nothing more than an attempt to undermine Trump’s position before his July 16th summit with Putin.

But, I don’t think so.  With Sweden issuing the last necessary permit for the construction of Nordstream 2 there is little way to stop the pipeline from being built.  Most of the pipe has been produced along with the infrastructure.  All that’s left is the actual putting the pieces together.

I think this is another pre-summit diplomatic offering by Trump ahead of his meeting with Putin.  The other was cutting the Al-Qaeda-linked groups free in Dara’a while the Russians and Syrian Arab Army retake the territory up to the Golan Heights.

It may also signify that Trump was never serious about stopping Nordstream 2 while other factions within the Administration were.  Remember, the biggest question in geopolitics today is just how much control does Donald Trump actually have over the policies of his administration?

We know he has virtually no control over the statements made by various officials who constantly run their mouths to back him into corners or undermine his negotiating position.

So, at the end of the day the First Rule of Trump applies, react to what he does not what he says.  Speech is a negotiating tactic for him.  And right now, he has not moved further on sanctions to stop Nordstream 2. With his long-desired summit with Putin now on the table it makes zero sense to throw down the gauntlet over it now.

Remember, also, that one of the outstanding issues between the U.S., Germany and Russia is gas transit through Ukraine starting in 2020.  The current agreement between Gazprom and Naftogaz ends next year and a new contract between them is not a done deal given the hostility of the Poroshenko regime.

The U.S. has tried to gain leverage over Gazprom to scuttle Nordstream 2 for three years now and all of those attempts have failed.  Gazprom has settled its anti-trust dispute with the EU, won legal challenges created by Ukraine and overcome political hurdles created by Poland.

Putin and Merkel met twice recently and discussed the future of gas transit through Ukraine among other things.  If Trump is willing to give up stopping Nordstream 2 then it may be that there is a new deal for Ukraine’s future in the works which ensures multiple gas supply routes for eastern Europe going forward.

The last piece to this puzzle is that the massive Grogingen gas field which has been the Netherlands’ greatest asset is drying up faster than expected.  Those volumes will have to be replaced placing even greater importance on Nordstream 2.

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Comments

el buitre RedBaron616 Sun, 07/01/2018 - 10:14 Permalink

Their was no way that the USA was going to stop Nordstream 2 with sanctions against German companies.  It would have finished off Merkel, which hopefully is in the works in July anyway, and devastated Germany's industrial base (not to mention population comfort in January.)  If the USA hadn't backed off, the next step would have been Germany purchasing S-400's to prevent aerial enforcement :-)

In reply to by RedBaron616

Jack Oliver RedBaron616 Sun, 07/01/2018 - 17:44 Permalink

The western media hasn’t  exactly been doing cartwheels over the Kersch bridge - linking Russia and Crimea !! 

An unbelievable engineering feat - completed in record time !!! 

Putin just FUCKING does it ( like wiping out ISUS in Syria ) 

Zio/US latest foray into Iran will only add to the US woes ! 

Russia has 85% of the world’s pure water - they have already built a water pipeline to China - Iran will be the next beneficiary of Russian water ! 

In reply to by RedBaron616

peopledontwanttruth Arnold Sun, 07/01/2018 - 09:01 Permalink

I’m sorry I don’t understand your rebuttal? 

I am not a public official who has flip flopped on many comments within days.   I’ve also not had millions of people looking TO me as they put faith in my words that I’ve recanted in tweets to press conferences.   Actually I can’t remember lately anything I’ve said that I didn’t mean as they were my own words and have followed through on my statements.  

So with all due respect I don’t follow your comment based upon these couple of facts plus you never heard me state something and know if I’ve back peddled or was it something I was dictated.  

In reply to by Arnold

peopledontwanttruth Arnold Sun, 07/01/2018 - 09:19 Permalink

Arnold there was nothing in my comment that said I wished to be held in lower esteem than a visible public official.   Again I don’t know where your reading comprehension is but there’s nothing there of that sort.  

I simply stated the truth that has been highlighted here on ZH about his flipping on comments.  While it’s true anyone of us Can/Have recanted in our lives because of a multitude of reasons.  This happens a lot with him and every puppetician.   They say something but either didn’t get the memo from the real leaders behind the curtain or they were simply lying from the get go.  

 

No this isn’t Maxine.  

In reply to by Arnold

robobbob peopledontwanttruth Sun, 07/01/2018 - 14:10 Permalink

two years in and his opponents still dont get it.

you can say what ever you want, ask for what ever crosses your mind, before the negotiation. in fact, the more outrageous the better up to a point. when the real meeting happens, your opponent works them selves into a lather, blows off steam, weakens their negotiating position ready to fight over things you dont really care about, then you go for what you really wanted

ie: every other day Trump fires off a tweet. his opponents go into panic mode until Trumps real actions are so much milder than what was hyped. meanwhile they look like chicken little. emotionally draining themselves and their supporters as their credibility sinks ever lower

In reply to by peopledontwanttruth

halcyon Arnold Sun, 07/01/2018 - 14:23 Permalink

Who the fuck is USA to give sanctions to it's allies, because they are trying to ensure their own energy security?

The world is fucked up and USA should stick to giving sanctions to companies operating within it's own borders.

USA, go fucking home. Nobody voted you to be the World Police ("Fuck Yeah").

 

 

In reply to by Arnold

DuneCreature Sun, 07/01/2018 - 08:17 Permalink

This assumes the Dip Shit Staters 'allow' Trump to make it to the summit with Putin.  .... John and Ron thought better relations with the Ruskies was a great idea too.

 

~~!~~ The Deep Shit The Deep State Keeps Pumping Into The Washington DC Cesspool ~~!~~

Weaponized Intelligence Agencies

OR

The United States of America is now run by a cabal of the students of Allen Dulles, Pol Pot and Joseph Goebbels.

More bad news in gory detail......

Warning : Heavily Redacted E-Evil

 From The Company Of Shadows (secret code ring required)

 

Live Hard, Still Can't Believe World Is Run By Evil Reptile Like Spooks In Suits And Ties? ........ Enjoy Your Family Trip To Dizzy World,........Just Watch The Pedophile In The Mouse Costume Around The Little Ones, Die Free

~ DC v10.01

 

nmewn Sun, 07/01/2018 - 08:50 Permalink

Tangentially related...

"The lowest measured air temperature on Earth is −89.2 °C (−129 F) on 23 July 1983, observed at Vostok Station in Antarctica (Turner et al., 2009, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012104). However, satellite data collected during the Antarctic polar night >>>during 2004–2016<<< reveal a broad region of the high East Antarctic Plateau above Vostok that regularly reaches snow surface temperatures of −90 °C and below. These occur in shallow topographic depressions near the highest part of the ice sheet, at 3,800 to 4,050‐m elevation. Comparisons with nearby automated weather stations suggest that air temperatures during these events are near −94 ± 4 °C or about −138 F."

...just damn, that's friggin cold!

As far as the "Paris Accord", an nmewn fart in your general direction ;-)

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL078133

thunderchief Sun, 07/01/2018 - 08:54 Permalink

Trump is probably the right president for the time given the USA has no credibility or trust left in negotiations or signing agreements.

They are all just deals now, and no country will sign anything unless its a deal.

IE.. Deals are day by day events any party can withdrawal from when they realize their partner is a scoundrel and a two faced liar. 

Iran has stated such things since its met the same.

Russia and Putin will go into any summit with this attitude.   They have seen plenty  of scoundreling and lying by the USA the last few years, or even decades.

WTFUD Sun, 07/01/2018 - 09:11 Permalink

Am I No A Bonny Fighter? - Kidnapped 

robert louis stevenson - aka Vlad Putin

 

A good man knows his limitations - dirty harry

A lot of Establishment Actors & Snivel Servants (pen pushers, in US/UK) are watching their 'cushy jobs/pensions' disappear with the push-back to their doctored Russophobia. They are Relics/Deadwood/Remnants of the Cold-War Era.

Is Trump the Man For All Seasons? Does he have the Will to bury these long time dead souls?

Money_for_Nothing Sun, 07/01/2018 - 09:23 Permalink

Nothing new. Has the author not heard of blockades? Undeclared wars? Carrots and sticks? Hillary and Obama were the ones who's money was threatened by alternate Russian pipeline routes. Trump is looking to open up North Korea. Russian energy is a key component.

Boogity Sun, 07/01/2018 - 09:29 Permalink

Money talks and American BS walks...

It's ironic as FK that Laissez-faire capitalism is what ultimately drives the USA out of Europe after Ronny Raygun and his free-market traders preached it while he shamelessly ranted, "Mr. Gorbachev tear down this wall".

Jack4952 Sun, 07/01/2018 - 13:19 Permalink

Sanctions on Russia and Crimea have been a BLESSING, both economically and socially. I know - I am an American (retired physician) who left America permanently for Ukraine, the later Crimea (part of Russia) in 2009.

Crimea (for the first time!!!) has produced 1.6 million bushels of wheat, of which it will be able to export about 1.1 million bushels. Its highways are undergoing massive rebuilding into "modern highways" - something the Kiev government never even considered doing. And there is a new BRIDGE across the Kerch Strait, to complement the ferries. It opened May 2018 for cars and trucks, with the two rail lines to be opened in 2020. It is a true "wonder of the world" and I have driven across it several times.

 

All these things and much more would never have happened had not the sanctions been enacted. The result was that Russia and Crimea had to become self-sufficient, so the Russian government allowed entrepreneurs (with government funding) to take on new projects and create new industries!!! You want the finest wines? Try Crimean wines!!! The best desserts? Try Crimean and Russian desserts. A new house at very low cost? Try the outskirts of any large city in either Crimea or Russia. Our newly custom-built house in Crimea (4 bedrooms, 2 baths, 4 sky-light windows that open and close automatically, huge living room and kitchen, massive elevated terrace, and steel wall surrounding our 3-acre lot) costs FAR LESS (about one-half the price) than the 3-bedroom house I owned in rural, central Massachusetts.

 

Thank you, Mr Obama and Mr. Trump!!!!

P,S. I forgot to mention that I have retrieved all my gold and silver formerly stored in Switzerland - purchased several decades ago! It is now all in my personal possession, but hidden only I know where in the nearby mountains.

 

TheGardener Jack4952 Sun, 07/01/2018 - 17:06 Permalink

What is your take on Donbass /Novo Russia ? I have a work colleague from there and she first got her daughter out with many tribulations because she was drafted as a law degreed police official and years in hiding and thousands of hard earned Euros went before the daughter chicken being finally enrolled in a German university to redo her degree.

Previous academic credits not accepted, having to start from stretch. She had to divorce her beloved husband hiding conscription in Romania but he too is a student in Germany now living with his "divorced wife" and on civic law studies too for a second round.

First years they wanted to move to Russia only but their mother with her hard earned cash slaving away at half the official minimum wage got them to move to Germany. Grandmother got moved to Ukraine proper, giving up her once fully owned apartment too .

Pre-war they were all pretty much well set up with fully owned appartments

but after the Nuland led coup uncivil war got left out in the cold. Imagine being labelled out for genocide for being Russian in Russian Ukraine but still being drafted to carry out the bad deeds ? Force drafted young men being picked up at cinemas and night entertainment venues !

Well, back to my question on you, this my source claims there are only too old and too poor people left in Novorussia hiding in the cellars of bombed out buildings.

 

 

 

In reply to by Jack4952