Anti-establishment Leftist Lopez Obrador Wins Mexican Presidency In A Landslide

As expected, Mexico has just elected its first leftist president in decades, with Andrés Manuel López Obrador (or AMLO) winning in a landslide and a near majority outright, or 49% of the vote early exit polls showed; right-left coalition leader Ricardo Anaya, in distant second place with 27% and the incumbent PRI party's Jose Antonio Meade, with 18%.

And, as Bloomberg headlines flash red, Obrador is now de facto president as his main rivals have conceded:

  • MEXICO'S LOPEZ OBRADOR SET TO WIN AS MAIN RIVALS CONCEDE

And, adding to the concerns that AMLO may start rolling back energy privatization programs and issue more debt, is that his Morena party just won a majority in the Lower House:

  • MEXICO'S OBRADOR POISED TO GET MAJORITY IN LOWER HOUSE: POLL

The victory of AMLO, who suffered defeats in the last two presidential votes, will hardly come as a surprise, as has led by double digit numbers throughout this campaign. His popularity stems from his antiestablishment platform (sound familiar?) which has been riding a public revolt against entrenched corruption, rampant violence and an economy that’s failed to deliver higher living standards for the common man and especially the poor, which comprise about half of Mexico’s 125 million population. He also campaigned with promises for economic reform that has been underlined by a desire to freeze prices of gasoline in Mexico for 3 years, as well as a reduction of external investment in the energy sector.

AMLO has also promised to ramp up social programs and, like so many of his antiestablishment peers, has vowed to fund them without deficit-spending by eliminating graft, a claim which as Bloomberg laconically adds, "has been greeted skeptically by economists." He’s also promised not to nationalize companies or quit Nafta. Investors are worried however that he may cancel oil contracts signed as part of outgoing President Enrique Pena Nieto’s energy reforms.

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The victory of a leftist in Mexico is a stark reversal for the Latin American nation which unlike most of its peers has not had a socialist leader in decades.

As Bloomberg notes, Lopez Obrador has promised to govern as a pragmatist. Still, his procession toward victory has alarmed many investors and business leaders, who worry that he’ll roll back privatization of the energy industry and push the country into debt by spending more on social programs.

Those concerns will be amplified if Lopez Obrador’s Morena party wins majorities in both houses of Congress, which earlier surveys had suggested is likely.

With the election outcome widely expected, there was little reaction in markets aside from the USDMXN which has enjoyed a relief rally, although as in the case of the Turkish Lira, many expect this will be short-lived as many anticipate Mexico's problems are set to worsen under the new administration.

What is more notable is that like so many other nations, Mexicans have also opted for change and turned their back on the establishment and the only two parties to have run the country in almost a century. There are plenty of reasons they might want to kick out the governing class.

“We need a complete transformation in Mexico,” said Sergio Oceransky, 45, as he voted at a polling station in central Mexico City. “We’re experiencing a tremendous political crisis that’s no longer sustainable.”

On the campaign trail, many voters say physical security was their top concern. A decade-long war on drug cartels has pushed the murder rate to record levels.

His predecessor, Pena Nieto, also started off on the right foot, opening Mexico’s energy industry to private investors and winning a reputation as an economic reformer early on. However, a surge in violence, and a string of graft scandals that dragged in the president and his family, Pena Nieto is ending his six-year term with some the lowest approval ratings in the history of the presidency. He will remain in office until December when Mexico's 5 month gap between elections and inauguration lapses.

And since both Obrador and Trump won on an antiestablishment platform, we look forward to them getting along just great.

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As discussed previously, here are the main campaign issues that dominated the presidential campaign (via Reuters):

 

Comments

ShortTheUS Sun, 07/01/2018 - 22:09 Permalink

Socialism has an unblemished record of doing extraordinary things for every country it's ever been implemented in. I look forward to seeing Mexico feel the Bern!

Handful of Dust ShortTheUS Sun, 07/01/2018 - 22:11 Permalink

Who knows. Those 45 million illegals in the USA may move back if the Free Chit from this new guy is big enough.

On the other hand, another 45 million might flood across the border to USA to escape the chaos, hunger and widespread murders there that usually go hand in hand with socialism.

On the bright side, we know where to send our socialist if they get too out of hand.,....just pack George Klooney, Meryl Creep, whoopi, Maxine, etc up in a truck and drive them south to the socialist utopia!

In reply to by ShortTheUS

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In reply to by Shillinlikeavillan

Theosebes Goodfellow Luc X. Ifer Mon, 07/02/2018 - 03:40 Permalink

Dear Meskins in 'Murica,

Does this mean that y'all be goin' home now? Seein' as AMLO is just like Obama, (only bettah'), y'all be packin' it in and headin' home, right?/r

Didn't think so.

Trump better start support for a right-wing counter-Marxist army of Mexicans in America to send over the border when the lefty shit gets crazy, (because you know it will).

10 meters high is not tall enough.

In reply to by Luc X. Ifer

Chris2 Theosebes Goodfellow Mon, 07/02/2018 - 06:25 Permalink

Anti establishment everywhere. Why? Because they stole too much from the working people.

They are looking around for how to keep the lid on things, here, there and everywhere.

They are going to End the Fed. Americans work 3 months per year for free.

We all know it needs to happen. Uranus went into Taurus money sign, change. The guy with Uranus at MC/Sun is the one who makes these kind of bold moves. He is a pragmatist, sees a problem and seeks to fix it. It is why he has Andrew Jackson in the oval office that is always in the shot. Jackson also had a war with the media, blamed them for his wifes early death as they sought to destroy him/her. Jackson had Pluto Capricorn 10th, Uranus rising and Saturn in 2nd (money) Mars in Taurus (war with the bank).

That's why Bitcoin was a big deal, I saw that first I heard about it. I saw it as pre-end the fed and people see what they are really doing to our money and it's not even real it's just a reflection of what has happened to our currency in reality so that everyday Joe can see it.

That can be the HUGE Jan 2020 move that really changes everything worldwide. Im not a money person like most are here but I imagine that would be very disrupting to say the least.

In reply to by Theosebes Goodfellow

Last of the Mi… Chris2 Mon, 07/02/2018 - 07:00 Permalink

He'll have a "meeting" with the drug cartel leaders in some form and from then on he'll have two choices. Constantly berate everything, including the US,  but the drug cartels for the collapse of Mexican society, or 2. Call upon the US and its armed forces to forcibly extract the leaches from Mexican society. 

I'm betting he'll start dogging the US fairly quickly.

In reply to by Chris2

SybilDefense Shillinlikeavillan Mon, 07/02/2018 - 03:40 Permalink

Its like spraying honey on your unfriendly neighbors house to get rid of your ant problem.  Bring it on!

Problem is free pesos won't be equal to free dolas, so the incentive to stay Mexican won't be worth it but it will still produce the negative effects of socialism, like chronic welfare, decreased self esteem, and financial ruin of the country.  Once you turn on the "gimme mines" spigot, there's no turning it off without violent protests and blaming the government for the responsibilities the people used to have when they were un-lefted.  Social services should be a short term insurance policy you pay into for in case of bad luck or injury, with maybe a severe condition safety net for folks who are born without a brain or limbs.

If they start giving away free virgins in Muslim land and free h2o-melon in afa-rica,  then I'd say our migration problems would be looking up, but then I'd be a racist.  At least no one would be around to complain about all the stuff I did to their forefathers that I'm responsible for, and the folks that would be left (white,black,green,purple,etc) would be happy simply to go about their day working to MAGA.  In other words, I don't care about your color. I deeply care about your bullshit. Go victim elsewhere please, or shut up, get to work and be thankful your able to smile once in a while.

Time for Soros to load his busses up and head South, really really South, on a long quiet tour to the new Utopia. Supposedly there are many who volunteered to drive if Trump won.  Someone please take whoopy.

In reply to by Shillinlikeavillan

MK ULTRA Alpha south40_dreams Mon, 07/02/2018 - 10:29 Permalink

I think you're on the money, it's time to seal the border. This new communist leader is advocating a human wave invasion. He has given the official approval of the Mexican government for Central American economic refugees transient across Mexico to the US. Caravans across Mexico, columns of dirt poor low skilled communist which will never be able to fit into an advanced economy which already has enough low skill labor.

The new communist leader of Mexico has stated it is a God given right to cross the US border illegally and settle in the US, the only problem is as an American I am not allowed to do the same in Mexico. That's right, over stay your visa, or try to illegally immigrate to Mexico, go to jail and pay a large fine(bribe).

Open Borders is racism in play, illegal immigration to the US supported by the Mexican government, but if an American did the same thing, illegal immigration, then we would be jailed and robbed by the Mexican government.

63,000 Americans have been killed since 2001. There were 58,000 Americans killed in the Vietnam war over the same amount of time.

With all the money, now in the trillions, MS13 is not a terrorist organization? trillions thrown away for the war on terrorism and the borders are wide open. I don't feel secure in this country, Arab terrorism is a long way away from me, it's only on the TV, but terrorism inside the US is higher than at anytime. It's being caused by an Open Border policy which has not protected me or the people of this country.

Now lets spend many trillions more on the government's terrorism racket while telling us through the MSM we're protected and safe because of this huge make work government program of preventing terrorism when the US government is the terrorist.

In reply to by south40_dreams