Obrador's Win In Mexico Is An Opportunity For Trump To End Drug War

Authored by Tom Luongo,

Populism is popular.  Andrés Manuel López Obrador won yesterday’s election in Mexico with enough of the vote to have a clear legislative majority in the lower house.

Most of the commentary on this is fatuous.  The right wants to harp on Obrador’s past statements about the corruption in Mexico is so bad that Mexicans should seek a better life in the U.S.

The U.S. establishment derides his and his proposals as unrealistic and unworkable, which they may well be as the corruption in Mexico runs deep.  But, that said, the main reason they don’t like Obrador is because he is an outsider to the political establishment and the ruling caste of Mexico.

Martin Armstrong’s conclusions may well be right that Obrador can’t fight the tide in the short run.

He will raise taxes dramatically and we will see Mexico spiral downward into 2020. He is ill-prepared to get rid the government of corruption when the bureacracy is the problem. In fact, many who were deeply involved in the corruption saw the shifting trends and were a part of Obrador’s campaign. It is also not likely that he will make a dent in the unyielding violence of the drug war. The people are fed up with the drug wars which has escalated out of control. There were more homicides last year in Mexico than any time in the last two decades.

But the Drug War is the big issue here.  And I don’t think in any way that it is in Obrador’s power to change it.  That power lies with the U.S. president, Donald Trump.

And if you look carefully at Trump he has been attacking the Drug War and the entrenched power in the U.S. which supports it, albeit outside of the main headlines.

His focus on immigration and the opioid crisis is real.  It is aimed at staunching the flow of immigrants into the U.S. which was a fully-blessed policy of the Obama administration to turn the important red states — Texas, Florida, Arizona — blue.

He’s allowing Attorney General Jeff Sessions to attack the Drug War through the human trafficking angle which is the right way to keep the center of the country on his side while the Democrats fulminate and try to turn this into a humanitarian crisis.

And it’s simply not working.  At all.

The polling numbers are stark.  Trump’s approval rating is soaring.  His numbers among blacks and hispanics are at levels a Republican hasn’t seen in decades. The #walkaway movement is going viral.

By allowing the Left to immolate themselves by trying to turn every issue he tackles into a negative Trump is setting the stage for a post-mid-term ratcheting up of his domestic policy agenda.

And, I think, he’ll get a very sympathetic ear from Obrador on marijuana legalization.  Trump has already begun the about-face about legalizing cannabis.  Back in April he unilaterally abandoned the federal policy on a crackdown on recreational cannabis use, removing the inter-governmental stress between federal and state law.

President Trump personally directed the abrupt retreat, which came at the behest of Republican Sen. Cory Gardner of Colorado. White House officials confirmed the policy shift Friday. Trump did not inform Atty. Gen. Jeff Sessions in advance of the change in policy, an almost unheard of undermining of a Cabinet official.

Gardner was incensed in January when the Justice Department announced that it was rescinding an Obama-era policy that directed federal prosecutors not to target marijuana businesses that operate legally under state law. The senator had blocked Justice Department nominees in retaliation.

And he told Jeff Sessions to stuff his outdated and insane ideas about pot and shove them.  But, now is not the time to spend one erg of political capital on cannabis legalization.   Not when there are so many other things that are pressing geopolitically.

But, looking ahead past the mid-terms and giving Obrador some time to get settled into the office, Trump will be able to revisit this issue and clean up a number of dangling issues.

He can’t fire Sessions until after he gets a real majority in the Senate, not the fake one he has today.  If that occurs, and the odds are very good (c.f. the Democrats’ implosion above), then he’ll be able to get someone on his side through the confirmation process.

And you can bet a lot that cannabis legalization will be something the Democrats try to pin any AG candidate on.

And, back to Obrador, there is not one thing holding back a successful shift in Mexico’s future than a coordinated attack on the drug cartels’ power.

And what better way to start than legalizing cannabis?

So, today marks the possibility of a new era in relations between the U.S. and Mexico.  One where two outsiders can coordinate policy to attack the core issues creating tension.  My wife visited Mexico last year as part of a scouting trip in case we decide to ex-patriate.

And it’s very clear Trump is not popular with most Mexicans, and with good reason.  But, at the same time if he embraces Obrador’s reform plan and supports him then that attitude could change very quickly.

In the short-term, however, markets will react badly to all of this.  The Peso will continue falling as global trade collapses thanks to Trump’s war on the European Union.  No emerging market will be spared.  But, that also means there will be quite the opportunity opening up in 2019-2020 if Obrador is truly as advertised and Trump has created the power base he needs.

*  *  *

To support more work like this and get access to exclusive commentary, stock picks and analysis tailored to your needs join my more than 125 Patrons on Patreon and see if I have what it takes to help you navigate a world going slowly mad.



takeaction Mon, 07/02/2018 - 22:12 Permalink

Heads are Exploding again....DEM/Libs hate it when Trump handles things correctly.  Today TRUMP talked with the new Mexican Pres...and are working things out.  Why do the Democrats want EVERYTHING to fail?


From Article

During a half-hour telephone conversation, Trump said the two leaders discussed topics including border security, trade and the North American Free Trade Agreement, adding that "I think the relationship will be a very good one."

"We are conscious of the need to maintain good relations with the United States. We have a border of more than 3,000 kilometers, more than 12 million Mexicans live in the United States. It is our main economic-commercial partner," he said.

"We are not going to fight. We are always going to seek for there to be an agreement. ... We are going to extend our frank hand to seek a relation of friendship, I repeat, of cooperation with the United States."

Full read here...Looks pretty good.


MK ULTRA Alpha wadalt Mon, 07/02/2018 - 23:08 Permalink

Obrador the new communist Matador is an opportunity for Trump to build THE WALL?

The speeches from the new communist leader of Mexico concerning illegal immigration is enough cannon fodder for Trump to make a BIGLY point about illegal immigration.

Obrador has declared war on the US by advocating illegal immigration. He has stated it's a God given right of all immigrates to cross the US border and settle in the US. He was speaking to Central America. Illegal immigration into Mexico from Central America is not allowed, but the transient of Mexican territory to the US is advocated and funded by the Mexican government?

Get ready for human wave illegal immigration. The Lt governor of Texas stated last week, the US government number of 11 million illegals is obsolete. It's between 25 million to 30 million. It's over 30 million illegals and there is no way this country will be able to deport 30 million people and the new president of Mexico knows it and the communist here know it. This is a communist take down of America with a decided Hispanic slant across the nation. That's the new America, the New Normal, a communist, homosexual and ethnic Mexican controlled nation.

The whites are either going to be killed from power or over run with Hispanics. Politically the US will be under communist and Mexican control. Can we cross the border illegally and live in Mexico illegally? no.

63,000 Americans have been killed by illegal immigrates since 2001. Over 58,000 Americans were killed in Vietnam over a similar time period. It's looks like a war to me.

Isn't it strange, a nation which spends trillions to safeguard against terrorist, but the borders are wide open. It's even stranger when this country has created 17 intelligence agencies, a Homeland Security, fusion centers in every city and region and military gear handed out to the police by the Pentagon, but when MS13 is the issue it's ignored. Isn't MS13 a nationwide, trans-national terrorist organization made up of foreigners? Then why have the Democrats called those who sound the alarm racist who've explained the danger of MS13? Or why didn't the FBI take out MS13? Or some other part of the government? why did it take so long to do something? it's a national emergency, but the government even with Sessions is dragging it's feet?

There will be no Wall built because Soros Open Borders groups are well funded. Soros donated over $18 billion to the Open Borders groups. There is an underground network of Soros funded groups bribing congress.

Do you think there will be a civil war? The MSM sure does think so, they're pushing hard for a bloody civil war.

In reply to by wadalt

MK ULTRA Alpha DeadFred Tue, 07/03/2018 - 01:10 Permalink

Look at the idiot who told me to calm down because he sold his soul to Trump.

I don't think Trump has illegal immigration under control. I see a man responding to crisis to crisis without congressional support. The senate is not going to vote for an immigration reform bill. period.

And Trump has to give up and give over 2 million kids and their families amnesty.

The WALL will not be built because Soros donated $18 billions to Open Borders. What didn't this TV head not understand. All of these groups foaming at the mouth for Open Borders are Soros funded operations. Is this normal, did we have this before? no, this is something that was not a part of America.

There is a network of Soros groups bribing congress with campaign money and have you noticed how congress is? they're scared of news leaks and the press who will target them if they vote against amnesty. Maybe this freak should calm down, a plumber who became a farmer. Man, that speaks of someone who reads instead of watches it on TV. I can't stand these drive by cut downs and the TV minds.

It serious and this freak or anyone believes Trump has illegal immigration wrapped up are not playing with a full deck. My interpretation is not one of the caravans from Central America was stopped by the Mexican government or the US border patrol. And the solution was political to send the National Guard which are doing nothing, because they're not allowed to guard the border.

Trump and congress, the majority Republican congress have not changed catch and release. LOL and the plumber who is now a farmer, a TV head who believes Trump has illegal immigration under control, man this is too much, this FREAK DID NOT EVEN KNOW THE NEW COMMUNIST LEADER ADVOCATED ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION BEFORE HE WAS ELECTED. And the low life drive by freak says it's an EXTREME NEGOTIATION TACTIC LIKE TRUMP, give me a break. Does the new Mexican president have the same agenda to stop illegal immigration, but ONLY IF A FUCKING BRIBE IS PAID.

Can't believe anyone believes Trump has illegal immigration wrap up or worse than that was the statement the Mexican communist leader was making extreme comments for TRUMP when it was pre-election speeches which are for the election not Trump. Again, the new communist leader made PRE-ELECTION speeches stating it was a God given right for illegal immigrates to cross the border and settle in the US. LOL, after the Mexican government didn't stop the Central American Caravan even when Trump was threatening the Mexicans with NAFTA.

How can anyone say Trump has got this under control when both houses of congress are majority Republicans and there is absolutely no solution.

Trump doesn't have this wrapped up as the "calm down" freak has stated. It's delusional at this point to believe Trump has solved very much, a supreme court judge, a tax cut that favored the rich while the same congress who will not do anything about illegal immigration are threatening with all kinds of propaganda to cut social security.

Calm down freak, just another drive by cut down from ignorant people who watch TV and play the left right paradigm game of MSM. Trump doesn't have control of the illegal immigration issue and IF THERE IS AN AMNESTY FOR THE DACA KIDS AND THEIR FAMILIES HE LOSES A LOT OF VOTES INCLUDING MINE.


In reply to by DeadFred

MK ULTRA Alpha CultiVader Tue, 07/03/2018 - 01:37 Permalink

You insulted me just like you're doing now and I have given it back. If you can't make a comment which isn't insulting don't do it.

Evidently you don't get it, I have never insulted you, but what do you do, insult me. It is my freedom of speech to be able to write without being insulted.

And I will not be voting for Trump again because of the illegal immigration issue. If this is not corrected I am leaving this country.

I hate America with all my heart, my last drop of blood, my last breath. I pray everyday for God to kill this country. It's an extraordinary evil country that always says how good it is. I tell exactly what I see. It's evil, it's a ghetto, the government lies about everything. Economy is roiled over and over by design. And now people of color are militant angry with me because I am an old white man. I hate it.

Maybe a bloody civil war is what this country needs.

Calm down is an insult and you know it, and I didn't deserve it. And perhaps you're the one who needs to be on medication with an attack out of the blue when I never did one thing to you. Now I had to give it back.

In reply to by CultiVader

MK ULTRA Alpha CultiVader Mon, 07/02/2018 - 23:39 Permalink

The waves of illegals are crashing not on our border, they're settling in the US. Catch and release. It doesn't look like Trump has this under control. Nor does this country. The Republicans with a majority can't get an immigration bill passed without paying for over 2 million DACA kids, an amnesty and billions more spending on these kids, new arrivals are ready and waiting for amnesty.

It was not extreme negotiation when the new communist leader was making the speeches pre-election. It had nothing to do with Trump at that point. Go read the speeches and what he advocates.

It's his platform.

The problem is you are a TV head and the TV doesn't explain it. Calm down, maybe it's you who doesn't realize what's happening, like the fact the government uses 11 million illegals settled in the US, but the true reality is over 30 million.

Calm down? when the Democrats rigged the vote and allowed illegals to vote. Or how about the left wing judge who recently ruled no one has to prove citizenship to vote.

I don't think Trump or the Republicans have a handle on immigration. Trump's response, send National Guard who are now shoveling horse manure instead of standing guard on the border. That's right, the National Guard troops are doing everything except guarding the border because the Border Patrol won't allow it. And the Border Patrol is doing a half ass job on securing the border. period.

How old are you?


In reply to by CultiVader

halcyon MK ULTRA Alpha Tue, 07/03/2018 - 01:03 Permalink

Is Luongo retarded? CIA controls the drug war! They provided training, weapons and intel to drug cartels. They let them run the supply lines and skim the profits.

If USA wanted to stop the drug war and drug running, it could have done it decades ago.

But it is too big a black budget cash cow for CIA and it's ilk to let go.

So more drugs you will get.In the end Americans are just stupid consumers for whatever legal pharma or illegal narcs that the elite profit making corps/crime syndicates produce.

Anybody who doesn't understand this hasn't read the history (Gary Webb, Danny Casolaro, Kris Millegan, John Perkins, Katherine Austin Fitts).


In reply to by MK ULTRA Alpha

MK ULTRA Alpha CultiVader Tue, 07/03/2018 - 01:26 Permalink

Culitvader, I don't think I'm being over board from what I'm seeing. I'm over 60 years old, I've never seen anything like what I'm seeing.

And I don't think this is a time to calm down. I believe we don't have a country. And how would you like it, when all kinds of militant people both young whites and people of color target you because you're an old white man. The target to blame for all their problems.

It's the old white males who caused everything. That's what I see and hear all the time. There is no way for me to "calm down".

Yes, I was too harsh on you, but you deserved it. I have to make a decision to carry a gun. No it's not that I'm a pussy, I was a soldier and didn't think I would ever carry a gun again. I used to live with an M-16. I felt strange coming into civilian life. It took years to be able to be around people who had guns without me having a gun. That sounds weird, I just don't like being around people carrying guns because they don't know safety and many issues taught in the military. See, in the military one marches around with there left hand grabbing their private thing, and the right hand with the weapon above them. left hand on the private part and weapon raised high yelling, "This is my weapon, this is my gun, this is for fighting and this is for fun." I'm not allowed to call a weapon a gun. I still have a problem calling it a gun.

See that training was to condition the soldier that the weapon is not to be used in anger, emotion, ego etc. it has only one purpose and that is to kill.

It's a discipline conditioned into the soldier. I haven't been that way in over thirty years and now I have to carry a weapon in my old age? you have got to be kidding me, but it's real and it's only getting worse. So there is no way I can "calm down" when I see the writing on the wall. I'm going to have to fight again in the most sophisticated game on planet Earth. When in combat, a life death struggle to see who is the winner, it's the ultimate game. So I will have to play the game again with kids who have no clue of what they're doing.

I sincerely hope Trump can change it, but I don't see how at this point. This is not the same America people the age of Trump and I grew up in. It's beyond surreal, this is not America.

In reply to by CultiVader

bhakta MK ULTRA Alpha Tue, 07/03/2018 - 06:36 Permalink

I am also 68, nearly 69 and the USA is not the country that I grew up in and loved and respected at  one time. I ardently supported President Trump; the first time in my life that I actually cared about who won the election, and the first time in my life I actually got involved, albeit from where I live in Thailand.

Trump clearly knows the problems and is trying to address them; I hope he succeeds but must remain doubtful because of the entrenched deep state is making  it nearly impossible.


In reply to by MK ULTRA Alpha

Be Intelligent… MK ULTRA Alpha Tue, 07/03/2018 - 01:26 Permalink

Suck a dick faggot, you think we like having 200k killed because of the drug war? Fuck you bitch. We want none of that, everything would be fine if your cursed disfigured country had not messed with us in the first place.


You dumb cocksuckers blame us for the shit you started, as you have been blaming everyone but yourselves for your wars worldwide.

In reply to by MK ULTRA Alpha

MK ULTRA Alpha Be Intelligent… Tue, 07/03/2018 - 01:57 Permalink

The new communist Mexican president is trying to blackmail the US to spend US tax dollars in Mexico to build up the economy to prevent illegal immigration. We're bankrupt and can't even have an infrastructure build of our nations infrastructure that's worse than Mexico's newer highways.

I would not care if the entire population of Mexico is killed off. It's always blame the US for your problems when your country is so corrupt the politicians are being killed everywhere. You didn't know about your country. Huge rip off in the state run oil company. The government and the crooked politicians have been looting your country and driving the poor north because there is no way the Mexican government can help it's citizens now. Not after the massive looting of the state.

Now the new communist is telling the poor go north, the Americans will pay for you. Now the new Mexican president is demanding a bribe from Trump to prevent illegals all the way from Central America, just like the Mexican government sponsored caravan from Central America. The new communist president has stated he will allow free transient for anyone who wishes to cross the US border and to settle in the US. It's illegal and I can't walk across the Mexican border and settle in Mexico and you know it.

Any American who tried to do what illegals do here in Mexico would be locked up and the police would be demanding bribes. That's your corrupt country. And why did former president Fox advocate for citizens of Mexico and the US to have a personal stash of heroin? He was the former president and he's advocating what you're whining about You're blaming the Americans for your country's corruption.

Mexicans are racist and have proven they're criminals from MS13 to La Raza calling for the genocide of whites. Again, my experience has been Mexicans are racist. period.

In reply to by Be Intelligent…

same2u takeaction Mon, 07/02/2018 - 23:10 Permalink

Nothing is going to change. Mexican presidents are just figures kept in power to give impression of a centralized government...Mexico has become a large region of several localized Mafia/corrupt politicians hybrid governments that answer to nobody except themselves...

In reply to by takeaction

Badenov takeaction Mon, 07/02/2018 - 23:29 Permalink

Obrador spoke today with Trump about developing projects across Mexico to create jobs that will keep Mexicans living at home and reduce migration north as much as possible. He sees that as a way to fight poverty AND roll back the insane violence. One only has to remember that until 2006 Mexico was a much safer country. And then Obama sent thousands of weapons to El Chapo’s Sinaloa Cartel, the largest one, with Fast and Furious, and things got really ugly, really fast. During the Calderón-Bush/Obama years, 2007 to 2012, about 120,000 people were murdered, 20,000 disappeared, organized crime expanded through the country, and ultimately, the drug trade continued unabbated and even grew to include huge amounts of heroin.

Trump agreed to send a representative to talk about these ideas. Obrador doesn’t take office until December 1st. 

In reply to by takeaction

Free This takeaction Tue, 07/03/2018 - 08:31 Permalink

I am Tea Party - equally pissed off at D's and R's - a conservative who will fight to the death for the Constitution. God, Country and Family. The Constitution, Limited Govt (which the Constitution shackles), fiscal sanity, bring our troops home and protect OUR borders! Let the losers across all ponds sort their own shit out, no more American treasure should be expended for other countries enrichment.

However, the Constitution is a mere piece of paper, I get my inalienable rights from God.

Beyond that politically, everything else is pure bullshit!

Obama and Hillary, and all their minions, should be tried for TREASON, SEDITION and HIGH CRIMES against WE THE PEOPLE! Then hung by the neck until dead, if found guilty. There is a lot of work to do. Trump should declassify all info related to email servers, Benghazi, and Russian interference. Repeal The Patriot Act, NDAA, and shut down the alphabet Stazi organizations, period, end of sentence!

Sic Semper Tyrannis

In reply to by takeaction

FlaRPh Mon, 07/02/2018 - 22:18 Permalink

Our ancestors 100yrs ago were smarter than us. They realized that the Constitution guaranteed "Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness" and that if you wanted to prevent someone's pursuit of happiness by Prohibiting "intoxicating Liquors", then you would need an Amendment (ie - 18th Amendment) passed by the House, Senate, signed by POTUS and ratified by 2/3 the States. Of course, it was a failure and the 21st Amendment repealed the 18th. Fast forward 50yrs and Tricky Dick Nixon is allowed to Prohibit "intoxicating substances" - creates an entirely new bureaucracy called the DEA - all without an Amendment and 2/3 the States ratification. I'm still looking for the Amendment - can't find it? Do you suppose Americans are that stupid they don't know an Amendment was required? Isn't there a 1st year Law Student that realizes this or has the curriculum been that dumbed down?   

snblitz techpriest Mon, 07/02/2018 - 23:32 Permalink

All you need is the "general welfare" clause and the rest may be ignored

Past courts have stated that all clauses of the US constitution have meaning.

The "general welfare" clause cannot be interpreted to make the rest of constitution irrelevant.

But now there is the current court.  I was just talking with a guy the other day who thinks the supreme court is above the constitution. 

I guess he is in good company along with a fair number of supreme court justices.

In reply to by techpriest

techpriest snblitz Tue, 07/03/2018 - 00:29 Permalink

Yes, that is the issue at hand. Also, if you think of the Constitution as a contract, you should interpret in light of the writings of the original signatories,who made it very clear that the government was meant to have its powers limited to those expressly given. If they had known the "general welfare" or "necessary and proper" clauses would be interpreted as they would be today, I doubt they would have signed on.

In reply to by snblitz

Free This techpriest Tue, 07/03/2018 - 08:38 Permalink

Expressly correct you are, The Constitution LIMITS Federal powers, but has been bastardized over time by socialists in our Gov't. Our education system is in shambles, churning out communists by the fistful.

When this pussy hat revolution starts, so will the culling of communists/socialists/fascists, etc...it will be unavoidable, IMHO.

Sic Semper Tyrannis

In reply to by techpriest

Elvis is Alive FlaRPh Mon, 07/02/2018 - 23:13 Permalink

Great post, FLA. A cop told me that he asked heroin users why they use, and he got the same thing time and again, "It's cheaper than pills and it works better." All you hear from people is that heroin users are junkies, and no doubt a lot are, but some are in horrible pain. When it comes to pain, it seems everyone thinks everyone's pain is fake but their own. 

In reply to by FlaRPh

ChinaCatRider Mon, 07/02/2018 - 22:24 Permalink

Mexico should legalize the drugs and give amnesty. It will instantly give Mexico an export product that Trump cannot tarif. Let the US deal with it's own drug problem and not export it south.

booboo ChinaCatRider Mon, 07/02/2018 - 22:38 Permalink

I am not against legalization, I don't think you can legislate morality. The state can and will define "impairment" along with the resulting penalty, that you cannot avoid. In the best case possession would not be a crime, transferring it can be depending on the "sale" "age restriction, "tax stamp", then you get to what it is really all about, one way or another the State will get it's cut of the action and you can bet your ass if it comes to that the federal legislation will include wording that the lions share goes the the "See I ay".

In reply to by ChinaCatRider