Trump To OPEC 'Allies': "Reduce Oil Prices Now" Or Lose US Defense Shield

Update: For the umpteenth time this year, President Trump has lashed out at OPEC over soaring oil prices (and therefore gas prices): "The OPEC Monopoly must remember that gas prices are up & they are doing little to help. If anything, they are driving prices higher."

Then Trump escalated his rhetoric, appearing to threaten the withdrawal of support unless action is taken "...the United States defends many of their members for very little $’s. This must be a two way street. REDUCE PRICING NOW! "

This is coming after reports that Trump asked the Saudis to increase production by 2mm barrels and that they agreed.

President Trump has not been shy of expressing his views to OPEC...

As higher gas prices are eating away at his tax cut advantages.

*  *  *

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

U.S. gasoline prices are at a four-year-high this year as a result of the higher price of oil which has reached a three-and-a-half-year high in recent weeks.

The increased pump prices are now eating into the disposable income of the average American household that will have a total of $440 less to spend this year on other goods and services because this money is expected to go for buying higher-priced gasoline.

The higher spending on gas could offset one-third of the gains from the tax cuts, with low- and middle-income families feeling the pinch much more than higher-income earners, according to S&P Global economists Beth Bovino and Satyam Panday.

“This would be tantamount to a tax increase for American households,” the economists wrote in a recent report, quoted by Bloomberg. “This is especially true for middle- to low-income Americans.”

The higher-income families, on the other hand, will be less affected by the increase in pump prices because spending on gasoline accounts for a smaller share of their total disposable income.

“The income tax cut is virtually compensating those who were hurt least from the oil-price change, which may result in even larger inequality,” according to Bovino and Panday.

Despite the higher spending on gasoline, however, the overall U.S. economy is now less oil-dependent than in the past, so oil prices in the $70s will have a more mitigated impact on economic growth than it would have in previous years, the S&P Global economists and Fed economists say.

For this year’s April–September driving season, the EIA expects U.S. regular gasoline retail prices to average $2.87/gallon (gal), up from an average of $2.41/gal last summer, mostly due to expectations of higher crude oil prices. According to the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) from June, monthly average gasoline prices may have peaked in June at $2.92/gal and are expected to drop gradually to $2.84/gal in September.

For this year’s July 4 holiday, U.S. drivers will be paying the highest Independence Day average gas prices since 2014 - at $2.90/gal, compared to $3.66/gal for July 4 in 2014, when oil prices were $100 a barrel, according to GasBuddy.

Although current national average gas prices are below the May peak of $2.98/gal, a price jump may be looming, due to OPEC’s announcement of a smaller-than-expected oil production increase, the U.S. push to have Iran oil exports down to “zero”, and significant U.S. crude oil stockpiles draws, GasBuddy says.

According to AAA, last week the United States saw the largest one-week reduction—9.9 million barrels—in crude inventories for the first summer driving season in five years. “If the decline in inventories continues and oil prices remain high, motorists could see a spike in gas prices later this summer despite the anticipated increase in production from OPEC and its partners,” AAA said last week.

Still, the higher oil prices now have a more muted impact on the U.S. economy than before, Dallas Fed President Robert S. Kaplan wrote in an essay last month.

Several factors have mitigated that impact over time. One is U.S. shale production—higher domestic oil production means that a larger share of the economy is helped by higher oil prices. Then, reduced crude oil imports benefit the U.S. trade balance. Finally, the U.S. economy is less oil-intensive now than in the past, because of higher fuel efficiency, other forms of energy substituting part of the oil dependence, and higher share of less-energy-intensive services sector as a share of the overall economy, Kaplan argues.

For example, in 1970, the U.S. consumed 1.1 barrels of oil for every $1,000 of gross domestic product (GDP). By 2017, only 0.4 barrels of oil were consumed for every $1,000 of GDP, the Dallas Fed president says.

“Based on these various factors, it is the view of Dallas Fed economists that the negative impact of higher oil prices on GDP growth is likely to be more muted than in the past.

It is our view that a 10 percent increase in the oil price should have a relatively modest negative impact on U.S. GDP growth. This negative impact should further diminish as the U.S. continues to grow its domestic oil production,” Kaplan writes.

Comments

directaction Four Star Wed, 07/04/2018 - 14:38 Permalink

Exactly. And even more ominous is the amount of oil available for export will be declining relentlessly from now on as the domestic consumption in the oil exporting nations climbs ever higher while their production moves past their peak. 

I give it 3.5 more years before unbelievable chaos and mayhem spreads across the globe one last time. Then extinction.  

In reply to by Four Star

Chris2 directaction Wed, 07/04/2018 - 14:41 Permalink

RED ALERT

Here it is: Our guy in Portland being interviewed by based black man. Our guy and black dude say DHS was protecting them (Proud Boys) and Portland police protects the far left.

Civil war spills out of DC and into streets of America. This is no joke, Obama purged and stacked police depts across the nation via BLACK LIVES MATTER COLOR REVOLUTION.

https://www.ar15.com/forums/General/Proud-Boy-Rufio-Panman-released-and…

In reply to by directaction

I am Groot Chris2 Wed, 07/04/2018 - 15:17 Permalink

Funny you posted that. There were a bunch of us trying to figure out why Antifa is allowed to operate, start vandalizing businesses that cause millions in damages and attack peaceful Trump supporters without the cops so much as lifting a finger. This explains a lot ! And I would expect this to be the case all over the country in places that have a Democrat controlled city council or municipality.

In reply to by Chris2

Chris2 I am Groot Wed, 07/04/2018 - 16:15 Permalink

Right and that is what I figured out during all these fake shootings. They must have a left mayor who appoints chief of police who hires officers so evidence will be overlooked or lost. They must have a Dem gov who won't interfere. Now in San Francisco we were kinda safe because we had a Chinese mayor and they won't go along with it. Now we have a black mayor/black chief of police. Remember San Jose CA when the leftist mayor called for a stand down and also Berkeley CA where the mayor was an actual member of a anti fascist group whose motto is "by any means necessary" these people are all communists. This was all planned for the final take down of America and how to deal with deplorables.

In reply to by I am Groot

Last of the Mi… Chris2 Wed, 07/04/2018 - 16:20 Permalink

Gas prices abate, liberal states add more taxes per gallon, prices go up, billions more of taxes paid to state, local and federal government resulting in less and less available disposable income for the individual then they abate again with the same government reaction. 

This is a classic example of taxing a commodity that everyone needs to function on a daily basis over and over again until it is truly unaffordable and begins to hinder the economy. 

 

In reply to by Chris2

gregga777 Chris2 Wed, 07/04/2018 - 18:27 Permalink

The Portland Police Department is also probably allowing any sort of provocations against firearms retailers, too. They want to make Portland into a gun free zone so it's safer for the CommProgs* who run the city. They couldn't give a shit about crime against citizens. 

 

*CommProgs—Communist Progressives

In reply to by Chris2

MrNoItAll directaction Wed, 07/04/2018 - 18:53 Permalink

Not even 3.5 more years, most likely. Bernanke gave a speech just a few weeks or so ago saying that the markets will crash in 2020 -- all Trump's fault, of course. EIA says oil shortages coming in 2020. Saudi Oil Minister says oil shortages likely in 2020. WSJ recently ran an article pointing at 2020 as the year bad things start happening. Coincidence? Maybe it is a coordinated effort on the part of TPTB to "get the word out" -- 2020 is IT, finale, the end. Batten the hatches down and make sure to keep your powder dry. We all know it can't go on forever, or even for much longer. 2020 sounds about right -- IF they can keep it going that long.

Extinction? Doubt it. Major cull of the herds. Inevitable.

In reply to by directaction

bshirley1968 Four Star Wed, 07/04/2018 - 15:04 Permalink

All the data I can find shows the US has around 40 billion barrels of known oil in the ground. At current consumption rates, that is around 6 years of oil for the US market.

I would like to ask Sean Hannity to explain how he calculates we can be "energy independent".....ever.....or longer than 6 years. If any of you would like to answer for him, I am all ears.

Point being, this stuff is likely to get more expensive regardless of how much they pump.

In reply to by Four Star

Not My Real Name bshirley1968 Wed, 07/04/2018 - 15:27 Permalink

"I would like to ask Sean Hannity to explain how he calculates we can be "energy independent".....ever.....or longer than 6 years."

The 40 billion figure is proven reserves only. To answer your question fairly, one must include the potential for undiscovered oil. 

The US government estimates there is an estimated 135 billion barrels of undiscovered technically recoverable oil in the US. Add the two up and you have 175 billion barrels. 

That's 25 years of potential energy independence at current consumption rates. 

And even if the estimated 135 billion barrels of UTR oil is actually half that amount, you still have the potential for 15 years of energy independence -- which is still more than 6 years.

In reply to by bshirley1968

bshirley1968 Not My Real Name Wed, 07/04/2018 - 15:38 Permalink

If you are right....and government data is to be believed....big deal. 15 years, 25 years, whatever, that is still pretty critical.....don't ya think?

Then what? There should be planning in place NOW....that doesn't include selling every barrel we can as an export, subsidizing whatever we must to keep gas prices low, and continuing to build an economy dependent on massive transportation to fill the needs of MOAR!....just so we can keep the debt expanding.

Regardless, "energy independence" is a joke played on the stupid by lying sacks of shit. And supply "end in sight" coupled with an energy cost that is becoming prohibitive to the point of zero return on energy invested should be waking people the hell up to the foolishness of infinite growth on a finite planet.

In reply to by Not My Real Name

bshirley1968 Not My Real Name Wed, 07/04/2018 - 16:11 Permalink

Quite right. And I am not lashing out at you. I am stating there is a situation that needs to be addressed objectively by adults.

Most people are clueless that the Chinese car market is bigger than both the US and Europe...by far. The world is growing up and oil demand is accelerating in the east.....big time! Here in the states we think we are the only people on the planet that buys anything, therefore any trade war will be an easy win, but consumerism is exploding around the world. Americans are going to have to "pay up" to get the things we have taken for granted for so long....and oil will be one of them.

In reply to by Not My Real Name

Pernicious Gol… bshirley1968 Wed, 07/04/2018 - 18:14 Permalink

The Chinese seem to be moving in the direction of mandating electric automobiles. This actually increases energy use, which they may think a reasonable price to pay for moving pollution somewhere else. Electricity has to be generated somewhere, then transported to the power station, thence into the automobile. There is a lot of energy loss at each step. There is still a huge amount of coal in the ground, which the Chinese burn in great quantities to generate electricity.

In reply to by bshirley1968

gregga777 Pernicious Gol… Wed, 07/04/2018 - 18:33 Permalink

Venezuela: Thermodynamic Oil Collapse's Leading Edge

 

The thermodynamic oil collapse is going to end civilization as we know it.  I believe that the 1%'ers are fully aware of this and that they know that there is no solution.  It's probably what is playing out right now in Venezuela.   It's probably also what is playing out in these endless OPEC discussions about production quotas.  Financial analysts can't understand that Venezuela's economy is collapsing because of thermodynamic oil collapse.  That's because they think in terms of fiat currencies not energy and thermodynamics.  

 

Venezuelan oil is high in sulfur, very heavy and viscous and takes much more energy to extract and to refine (Mayan Heavy = API 21; "Mayan crude has lower deliverable energy because of its 28% residual from the refining process that must undergo further vacuum distillation").  It's worth less than conventional crude oil (defined as 30 <= API <= 45; conventional crude = API 35.7; condensates = API 60). Their oil production has been steadily declining for years, nearing a 27-year low from 1989, and is probably accelerating because all of their reserves are marginal.  It's not a coincidence that Venezuela is having severe economic difficulties despite supposedly having the largest reserves of any nation.  Venezuela buys and imports US WTI crude to mix with its heavy Mayan crude to make it salable.  

 

Petroleum provides its own extraction energy.  When the Petroleum Production Sector (PPS) uses as much energy as each barrel of oil yields it will be worthless to the end consumer.  It's all basic to the 1st and 2nd laws of thermodynamics whose rules are inviolate.  

 

The year 2012 marked the point where on average 1/2 of every barrel of oil was required PPS for the production, refining & processing, transportation, etc., of each barrel of crude oil.  On average, by 2035 crude oil production will be a net energy sink providing no energy for the Non-Energy Goods (NEGS) producing sector of the economy.  That is, it won't provide a net energy gain to the economy.   At that point remaining oil in the ground will be irrelevant because it will require more energy to extract than it yields.  In other words, crude oil will be worthless ($0) to the consumer.  

 

An overview of the above are at:

 

http://www.thehillsgroup.org

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-22/thermodynamic-oil-collapse-why…

 

 

A 65-page detailed paper describing thermodynamic oil collapse.  

 

Depletion: A determination for the world's petroleum reserve 

An exergy analysis employing the ETP model 

 

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/petrohgv2.pdf

In reply to by Pernicious Gol…

Kyddyl gregga777 Wed, 07/04/2018 - 20:08 Permalink

Excellent points! I see it in practical visible terms every day. There are a number of refineries just north of Salt Lake City. All have recently been massively refitted to try to handle the new crudes. It is not a seamless process and has violent potential. Flaring is common and the things I hear from HAZMAT people are fairly blood curdling.  Think tankers of hydroflouric acid on the highways, winding down the canyons while morons in 12 MPG Suv's keep cutting them off. 

In reply to by gregga777

Ignorance is bliss bshirley1968 Wed, 07/04/2018 - 17:56 Permalink

Through shale or conventional wells the U.S. produces mainly light crude. It needs to be mixed with other heavier grades of oil to make gasoline. We import about 50% of other types of oil to mix with our locally produced oil. Whatever light crude we don't use domestically is exported to other refiners in need of lighter crude. We also have 150 refineries that take in oil from other nations and produce gasoline that is exported back to those countries. We have a very complex system that obfuscates what's really occurring. Especially, if your analysis is cursory. You know...like from the mainstream media.

In reply to by bshirley1968

dirty fingernails tmosley Wed, 07/04/2018 - 18:47 Permalink

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hirsch_report

Mitigation efforts will require substantial time.

    Waiting until production peaks would leave the world with a liquid fuel deficit for 20 years.
    Initiating a crash program 10 years before peaking leaves a liquid fuels shortfall of a decade.
    Initiating a crash program 20 years before peaking could avoid a world liquid fuels shortfall.

 

Do you see thorium reactor being built on a scale that can address the required output? Shall we talk about available lithium for batteries?

In reply to by tmosley

A Sentinel directaction Wed, 07/04/2018 - 17:47 Permalink

Oil depletion is an old lie. If you believe it you have been very mislead and are poorly informed. There is an agenda behind the lie. It’s the same agenda that’s behind the anthropomorphic global warming bullshit.

Find old newspapers and magazines from the 1970’s. The depletion lie was alive then and we were supposed to be totally out of oil long ago.

It’s all bullshit.

In reply to by directaction

Posa directaction Wed, 07/04/2018 - 20:57 Permalink

Maybe yes. Maybe no. One thing is for sure: the proximal cause for rising oil prices is Drump's dirty Iranian coup executed for his masters in Tel Aviv. This is just a fraction of the price the American people pay for doing the bidding of a corrupt, bellicose foreign power and their smarmy apartheid state. So sick. Come to think of it pulling Libyan and Valenzuela oil off the market adds to the chaos.

In reply to by directaction