Stagflation Signals Flash Red As US Composite PMI Dips, Bucks Global Trend

June's final Composite PMI was higher than the flash print but slowed from May's multi-year highs as business expectations slip to 3-month lows as input prices soar; but ISM's Services survey printed better than expected at 59.1 (vs 58.3 exp and 58.6 prior).

Take your pick of hoiw the US economy is doing...

  • Both Markit's Manufacturing & Services PMIs slipped in June.

  • Both ISM's Manufacturing & Services surveys soared in June.

Rather confusingly, ISM managed to surge despite 7 of the 10 components declining??

Even more ridiculous, ISM's gauge of prices paid decreased to 60.7, lowest since December 2017, from 64.3; employment slipped to its lowest since April 2017.

Commenting on the PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

Another month of solid business activity growth means the second quarter saw the strongest performance from the service sector for three years. Coming on the heels of a robust manufacturing expansion in the second quarter, the survey data add to indications that the economy has picked up considerable growth momentum since the first quarter.

“June also saw further impressive job gains, with the manufacturing and services surveys indicating that the last two months have seen business hiring increase at the steepest rate for just over three years. At this level, the survey’s employment indices are historically consistent with a non-farm payroll rise in the order of 230k.

But, Williamson flashes a big fat stagflation warning:

“On the downside, price pressures remained elevated, and are likely to feed through to higher consumer price inflation in coming months.

There are also signs that growth could weaken in the third quarter: business expectations about future growth have pulled back from recent highs, and new order flows have slowed for two successive months. However, all indicators remain at sufficiently high levels to suggest that any slowdown may only be modest.”

Interestingly, while China, Europe, and Japan saw their composite PMIs rise in June, US saw a reverse...